Why the Giants can beat the Eagles.

The Eagles have had the Giant’s number lately. You need to go back five seasons for the last Giant victory over the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. That should change Sunday as the Giants can beat the Eagles at home. It would be the first three game Giants win streak since November 2016.

One could look at five key areas that determine a team’s success. Typically these areas are evaluated from both an offensive and defensive view and evaluated as a differential between getting and giving up. The areas in order of importance per Football Study Hall article football study hall article are

1) Explosiveness – measured by big plays of 20+ yards.
2) Efficiency – success value for each play.
3 – tie) Field position – starting field position for each change of possession.
3 – tie) Finishing Drives – points scored per drive.
5) Turnovers – interceptions and fumbles.

Based on the combined stats thru week 11, the Giants beat the Eagles in four of the five areas. They significantly beat the Eagles in explosiveness and turnovers.

In explosiveness the Giants rank tied at 19th in the league while the Eagles are 31st. The Giants have a minus two 20+ yards play differential to the Eagles minus 15. The Giants have had 37 passing plays of 20+ yards and 9 rushing plays. The Eagles have had 30 passing plays and 5 rushing plays. On defense the both given up 41 passing plays and on rushing plays the Giants gave up 7 to the Eagles giving up 9. Explosive plays differential has been weighted as the most valued area of the five. The top five teams in explosiveness differential in order from top are the
1) Bears,
2) Chiefs,
3) Chargers,
4) Rams and
5) the Saints.

Efficiency is the measure of success of each play. How many yards were gained (or if points were scored) for a play correlated with what down it was. For efficiency I used Football Outsiders statistics. Through week 11 the Giants are 21st in net efficiency in the league and the Eagles are 23rd. The Giants best group is special teams with the 11th ranked efficiency value. The Eagles are ranked 22nd across the board (offense, defense and special teams) in efficiency. The Giants rank 18th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. The top five teams for overall efficiency are
1) Chiefs,
2) Rams,
3) Bears,
4) Saints, and
5) Chargers.

In field position differential the Giants are 17th in the league and the Eagles are 23rd. The Giants opponent starts on average at the 27 yard line which is 11th best in the league. The Giants field position differential is minus 0.34 yards to the Eagles minus 1.77 yards. The top five teams on starting position differential are the
1) Saints,
2) Chiefs,
3) Texans,
4) Rams, and
5) Dolphins.

Of the five areas the Eagles beat the Giants is in finishing drives. However I was surprised to see that this is not true on offense. It is on defense that the Giants fall short of the Eagles. The Giants rank 27th in finishing drives with a minus 0.46 points per drive to the Eagles minus 0.32 points per drive. The Giants rank 19th in offense points per drive with a plus 1.97 to the Eagle that rank 24th with a plus 1.83 points per drive. On defense the Giants rank 27th giving up 2.43 points per drive to the Eagles rank of 20th giving up 2.15 points per drive. The top five teams in points per drive differential are the
1) Saints,
2) Chiefs,
3) Bears,
4) Rams,and
5) Chargers.

In turnover differential the Giants are tied for 15th in the league with a turnover differential of plus two. The Eagles are tied for 28th in the league with a minus nine differential. The Giants have given up only 11 turnovers in 10 games which is tied for ninth best in the league. The Eagles’ defense has taken away only 7 turnovers which is roughly half of the Giants 13 and the Eagles’ seven is ranked tied for 29th in the league. The top five teams for turnover differential are the
1) Bears
2) Browns
3) Redskins
4) Rams, and
5) Seahawks.

Overall based on the weighted formula proposed in the football study hall article the Giants rank 23rd in the league with a 13.00. The Eagles rank 29th in the league with a 6.85. That is a significant difference in total score.The overall weighted formula of each team’s individual inverse rank per category is

35% (explosiveness rank) + 25% (efficiency rank) + 15% (Field Position rank) + 15% ( finish drives rank) + 10% (turnovers rank)

The rankings from best to worst with scores are

Formula Rankings
Formula Rankings

Based on this analysis the Giants have a definite winnable game Sunday against the Eagles. I am in the win as many games as you can camp and let the draft unfold as it falls out. No guarantees a higher pick would be a better pick.

Attached here is the full data on all teams through week 11.

Statistics Through Week 11

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