2019 NFL Draft Quarterbacks Rated Based on Situational Data

Following up on the post on 2019 NFL Draft Quarterback Prospects Meeting Seven Rules of Bill Parcells, I now take  a look at those seniors plus the top potential first round quarterbacks. Specifically I am looking at their 2018 statistics in regard to three key situations.

  1. Third down conversion percentage,
  2. Red Zone Touchdown percentage, and
  3. Big Play percentage.

A big play is considered 15+ yards passing or 10+ yards rushing. The percentages take into account both passing and rushing plays by the quarterback. Rankings listed below are among the sixteen quarterbacks examined.

The idea being that these are three key areas that would have a large impact on game outcome. In total I looked at sixteen quarterbacks. I determined their percentages in each key situation based on data available at cfbstats.com. I then took their average percentage across all situations and also the sum of their standard deviation across all sixteen quarterbacks. From those two views here are the top seven quarterbacks based on these situational statistics.

Justice Hansen

Arkansas State

6’4″ and 224 lbs

Senior

Of the sixteen quarterbacks looked at, Hansen had the highest red zone touchdown percentage with 35.8% of his red zone attempts translating into touchdowns.  His passing touchdown percentage is up at 40%. That is almost 6% higher than the next quarterback in the group of sixteen. Hansen is a dual threat quarterback. He had the third most rushing attempts on this list and 16.5% went for big plays. That percentage was fifth in the group but tops among these top seven quarterbacks. Hansen was number one in the Sun Belt in passing touchdowns (27) and touchdowns responsible for (33). His 33 total touchdowns was 14th in the nation. Big, tough mobile quarterback with a strong arm. Hansen was Sun Belt Conference 2018 First-Team and was named the Sun Belt Player of the Year. Hansen can be seen December 29th in the Arizona Bowl on CBS Sports Network at 1:15pm (ET).

Will Grier

West Virginia

6’2″” and 223 lbs

Senior

Will  Grier came in next for red zone touchdown percentage. He is usually throwing to receiver David Sills. Sills is said to be lethal in the red zone but Grier is making the throws. Grier has converted 35% of his red zone attempts into touchdowns. He shows high in the group of sixteen for passing coming in second, third and fourth for passing for red zone, 3rd down and big plays respectively. Grier was one of three finalists for the 2018 Maxwell Award given to the best all-around player. He was also one of five finalists for the Walter Camp Award Player of the Year. Will Grier can be seen at the Reese Senior Bowl.

Dwayne Haskins

Ohio State

6’3″ and 218 lbs

Sophomore

Haskins had the second most passing attempts in the nation. He also had the second most passing plays of 20+ yards. His big play percentage comes in at 19% which is third on this group of 16 quarterbacks. Like Grier, Haskins shows tops in the group of 16 for passing. He comes in second, third and third for passing in 3rd down, red zone and big plays respectively. Haskins was one of three finalists for the Heisman Trophy. Haskins can be seen January 1 in the Rose Bowl at 5pm (ET) on ESPN.

Ryan Finley

North Carolina State

6’4″ and 212 lbs

Senior

Finley comes in as number one in the group for 3rd down conversion percentage. A whopping 48.6% of his third down attempts convert to first down. He had the third lowest 3rd down rush attempts at 14 but he converted 71.4% of those. He had the highest number of third down pass attempts (124) and he converted 46% which was fourth best. NC State ranked eighth in the FBS on third down conversions (49%) even though their rushing game ranked 87th in rushing yards per attempt. Finley had the third most total passing attempts (452) and he had a big play on 21% which is second best. Finley was 2018 All-ACC Football First-Team and one of thirteen finalists for the William V. Campbell Trophy. The Campbell Trophy incorporates academics, community service, and on-field performance. It is considered by many to be the “Academic Heisman.” Finley can be seen December 31st in the TaxSlayer Bowl at 7:30 pm (ET) on ESPN. Also Finley will play in the Reese Senior Bowl.

Jake Browning

Washington

6’2″ and 210 lbs

Senior

Washington ranks 108th of the 130 FBS teams in Passing Play Percentage (39.8%). So it is understandable that Jake Browning ranks last in this group of 16 quarterbacks in Passing Attempts with 334. However Browning ranks number one in the group in Big Play Percentage with 20.7% of his attempts going for a big play. On passing attempts alone that percentage goes up to 23.65%.  Though Browning had the least number of passing attempts in the group of 16, he has the fifth most passing big plays. Browning also excelled in making 3rd downs where he comes in 3rd in the group making 43.5% of his third down attempts. He is second in rushing 3rd down attempts making 50% on the fifth most rush attempts (34).  In passing in the red zone he was tie at fifth getting a touchdown on 29.3% of attempts. Jake Browning has been the quarterback for more victories than any other player in Pac-12 Conference history. You can see Browning in the Rose Bowl on January 1st at 5pm (ET) on ESPN.

Brett Rypien

Boise State

6’2″ and 202 lbs

Senior

Rypien is second in the group in third down conversion percentage (48.4%). He is first in passing 3rd down conversion at 49.17%. That is on the second most 3rd down passing attempts (120). Pro Football Focus had Rypien as one of their top five quarterbacks heading into Bowl season recognizing his clutch performance on 3rd down. Brett Rypien is the 2018 Mountain west Conference Player of the Year. You can see Rypien in the First Responder Bowl on December 26th at 1:30pm (ET) on ESPN. Rypien will also play in the East West Shrine Game on January 19th on the NFL Network.

Marcus McMaryion

Fresno State

6’2″ and 203 lbs

Senior

McMaryion is a dual threat quarterback. He had the fourth most red zone rushing attempts of the group (19) and converted to a touchdown on a group high 42.1%. Though sixth of the group of sixteen in big play rushing percentage, his 15.5% was second best among these top seven quarterbacks.  McMaryion’s overall red zone touchdown percentage of 31.6% was fourth best in the group of 16. At ten games thru the 2018 season Pro Football Focus has Marcus leading the nation’s quarterbacks in red zone passer rating (124.4). McMaryion will play in the East West Shrine Game on January 19th on the NFL Network.

The Data

The sixteen quarterbacks looked at for this analysis were

Brent Stockstill – Middle Tennessee State
Brett Rypien  – Boise State
Daniel Jones – Duke
Drew Lock – Missouri
Dwayne Haskins – Ohio State
Eric Dungey – Syracuse
Gus Ragland – Miami (OH)
Jake Browning – Washington
Jarrett Stidham – Auburn
Justice Hansen – Arkansas State
Justin Herbert – Oregon
Manny Wilkins – Arizona State
Marcus McMaryion – Fresno State
Ryan Finley – North Carolina State
Shea Paterson  – Michigan (returning to school)
Will Grier – West Virginia

I have attached the data. The cells are boxed for 3rd down, red zone and Big Play data. The seven best names based on the data are highlighted in yellow. The data has the data counts for passing and rushing attempts/made. Followed by a column each for their passing % and their rushing %. That is followed by the total %.  For the totals blue highlight denotes above group average and yellow highlight denotes significantly below the average.

QB Situational Data

 

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