My take on a First Team of 2019 draft prospects based on their production. To qualify prospects had to reach certain team market share percentages for their position. Team market share is the prospects statistic such as receiving yards divided by the total team statistic like receiving yards. The thresholds used are at the end of the article as well as a spreadsheet of prospects that qualified. Generally the 2018 data was used. However for players that did not qualify based on 2018 data I tried to see if a prior year’s data would qualify them. Out of the players that qualified then other factors may have been considered to make the first team. It was not always the player with the highest market share.
Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma, 5’10”, 195 lbs
Even at 5’10 and 195 lbs this guy can just play! Compared with the top quarterbacks in this draft class Murray is above average in every statistic that I looked at. He was the only one for which that was true. His 69% completion percentage was sixth in the NCAA. His 11.6 passing yards per attempt was number one in the NCAA. His 42 passing touchdowns was number three. His 199.2 passing efficiency rating was number two. He had an incredible TD to Interception ratio of 6.0. He rushed for an average 71.5 yards per game with a 7.15 yard average and 12 rushing touchdowns. His rushing average was 15th in the nation and the top quarterback. He made 50% of his 3rd down attempts which was tops among the 25 quarterbacks I looked at. Twenty eight percent of his attempts went for a big play. That also was tops among the quarterbacks examined with the next quarterback at twenty one percent.
The big knock on Murray is his size. However he plays with big players in college. The average size of his offensive line entering 2018 was 6’4″ and 314lbs. The average offensive lineman in the NFL in 2015 was 6’5″ and 312 pounds. The average college football player size for Defensive line is 6’3” and 270 lbs. In 2013 NFL Defensive Ends averaged 283 pounds and 6′ 4″. Defensive tackles averaged 6’3″ and 310 pounds. So Murray has played with comparably big players and he played the whole year not missing any game due to injury. Murray at 5’10 and 195 lbs is not far off from Russell Wilson‘s combine measurements of 5’11” and 204 lbs.
After being backup to Baker Mayfield in 2017 the following was a nice way to open the 2018 season as the starting quarterback showing off the arm strength with a nice anticipatory throw hitting the receiver in stride. Murray had an 82% completion ratio and a 301 passer rating in the opener.
Kyler Murray is COOKIN pic.twitter.com/pCvS3kKcUI
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 1, 2018
Darrell Henderson, RB, Memphis, 5’9″, 200lbs
“This man is an absolute monster,” tweeted Memphis legend DeAngelo Williams. For backs with 1,000+ yards Henderson had the second best average rushing yards (8.9) in 2017 and the best in 2018 (8.9). In 2018 he had the most rushing plays of 20+, 30+, 40+, 50+ and 60+ yards. He averaged 9.5 yards from scrimmage which was tie for second best among running backs. Henderson had the second most touchdowns from scrimmage with 25 and second most rushing touchdowns with 22. His 30% team market share on yards from scrimmage made him one of only five draft eligible backs to have 30% or better in 2018. As reported by Pro Football Focus Henderson had the most yards after contact (1,321) and averaged 6.17 yards after contact. No running back who carried the ball at least 61 times had a better average Yards after contact/attempt.
Here against Connecticut Henderson shows his elusiveness and speed. Going into the 2018 season Pro Football Focus had Henderson rated as the most elusive draft eligible back leading the next back by 16.5 points. In this game against UConn Henderson ran for 174 yards, a 12.4 average and three touchdowns.
Alec Ingold, FB, Wisconsin, 6’2″, 242 lbs
Alec Ingold is a team captain and received the 2018 team Offensive Impact Player of the Year Award. In 2018 he had 26 rushing attempts, averaged 5.5 yds/attempt and had 6 rushing touchdowns. That amounts to a score every 4.3 times he touched the ball. He had another receiving touchdown and averaged 18.6 yards for his five receptions. He had seven 3rd down rushing attempts of 1-6 yards to go and he made six of them. His one 4th down attempt he got 5 yards and the 1st down. Wisconsin has always valued their fullbacks and their versatility. This is what head coach Paul Chryst said about Ingold – “He is an effective short-yard runner, catches the ball well out of the backfield and could serve as an H-back if needed.” Ingold helped block for running back Jonathan Taylor who was the only back to have over 2,000 yards rushing in 2018. Ingold was selected for Wisconsin’s 2018 Big Ten Football Sportsmanship Award Honoree. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook called Ingold a “competitor.” “I love having him in the backfield because you know in those situations when we need something, we know he can do it—whether it’s a big block or if he gets the ball in his hands.”
Andy Isabella, WR, UMass, 5’10”, 190 lbs
Andy Isabella had the highest FBS receiver team market share in 2018 with 47.5%. The next closest receiver was 6% less. He was tie for the fourth most touchdowns among wide receivers with 13 receiving and one rushing. He was tie for the most receiving plays of 40+, 50+ and 60+ yards. Isabella is real fast. In his 2015 high school senior year Andy ran an official 6.8 second 60 meter dash which was second fastest in the nation that season. His speed combined with his work ethic, drive and passion have paid off in a hard to cover route runner. “He was one of the five hardest workers I’ve ever coached,” said former UMass head coach Mark Whipple, who’s been around as a head coach or assistant since 1980. At the Reese Senior Bowl Isabella was named the North’s Most Outstanding Player with a game-high seven receptions for 74 yards and a score. Here he is during a practice drill.
ANDY ISABELLA FOOTWORK 😍😍 pic.twitter.com/OjYhyu1nSL
— The Draft Network (@DraftNetworkLLC) January 22, 2019
Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State, 6’6″, 225 lbs
Butler had the second highest 2018 receiver yards market share with 42%. He averaged 22 yards per reception which was third in the FBS. He had 60 receptions and was tops in average yards for receivers with over 35 receptions. Butler was tie for second in the FBS for receptions of 20+ and 30+ yards. He was tie for third in receptions of 40+ and 50+ yards. Butler is a big physical receiver with a large catch radius. He excels in contested catches and yards after the catch. “I think Hakeem, bar none, is one of the most athletically talented guys I’ve ever had the opportunity to coach at the wide receiver position,” – Iowa State Coach Matt Campbell.
Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M, 6’4″, 250 lbs
Sternberger had the most receiving touchdowns among FBS tight ends and was second in receiving yards. Good hands catcher and physical after the catch breaking tackles to get extra yards. Jace will haul in contested catches and plays with a physical toughness. A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher said Sternberger has the work ethic of a true old school football player. “Once you get a hold of him, I mean he’s so fun to coach in practice and like I said he should have played in 1955…, He doesn’t have a slowdown button and he loves the game.” -Fisher.
Is what Jace Sternberger doing here to the Safety the equivalent to dunking on someone in the NBA?pic.twitter.com/r9iCN6Qpc7
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 13, 2018
Jonah Williams, OL, Alabama, 6’5″, 301 lbs
Williams was All-SEC First Team the last two seasons and a 2018 Unanimous All-American. Williams was one of seven finalists for the 2018 Lombardi Award. The Lombardi award goes to the best college football player, regardless of position, based on performance, leadership, character and resiliency. He was Pro Football Focus top graded tackle. As reported by Pro Football Focus Williams did not give up a sack in 2018 and only allowed 10 pressures on 410 attempts.
Dalton Risner, OL, Kansas State, 6’5″, 300lbs
Risner was All Big-12 First Team each of the last three seasons and was a four year starter at Kansas State. At the Senior Bowl he stonewalled Montez Sweat and Jaylon Ferguson. Both are considered to be top talent edge rushers. As reported by Pro Football Focus on 373 pass blocking snaps Risner has given up zero sacks and only four pressures. Per PFF, Risner allowed only 28 pressures on 1,489 pass-blocking snaps in his college career.
Max Scharping, OL, Northern Illinois, 6’6″, 320 lbs
Scharping was All MAC First Team each of the last three seasons. Scharping has had 53 consecutive starts over the last four years. He has allowed one sack over the last three seasons. Pro Football Focus takes the amount of snaps a player spent in pass protection against the amount of pressures he allows to create a pass-blocking efficiency figure with a maximum value of 100.0 for a perfect, clean slate of pass protection. Max Scharping ranked third in pass-blocking efficiency in 2015 (97.1), first in PBE in 2016 (98.9) and first again in 2017 (99.2). He is consistent, reliable, versatile and successful. Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com listed Scharping as one of a group of top performers at the Jan. 22 Senior Bowl practice
Beau Benzschawel, OL, Wisconsin, 6’6, 315 lbs
Beau was All Big-10 First Team each of the last two seasons and was a 2018 Consensus All-American. He has made 49 consecutive starts. He is regarded as a people mover and a mauler in the run game playing with power. Benzschawel was part of a unit that led the Big Ten in rushing and ranked No. 6 nationally. He shared Wisconsin 2018 Offensive Player of the Year Award with fellow lineman Michael Deiter.
John Keenoy, OC, Western Michigan, 6’2″, 282 lbs
Keenoy was 2018 All Mac Second Team, 2017 All Mac First Team and 2016 All Mac Second Team. He has been a three year starter at western Michigan. Going into the 2018 season Pro Football Focus had Keenoy as tied for the second best pass-blocking center from 2017. He allowed just two pressures on 329 pass-protection snaps in 2017 and only seven over 2016 and 2017. Keenoy had not allowed a sack in 2016 and 2017.
Ed Oliver, DT, Houston, 6’3″, 292 lbs
Oliver was All AAC First Team in 2016, 2017 and 2018. He was 2017 AAC Defensive Player of the Year and a Consensus All American in 2017 and 2018. He makes this all-production team based on his 2017 statistics. This is due to the fact that his 2018 numbers would not have qualified for solo tackles and sacks. However he did miss four games in 2018 due to injury. As reported by Pro Football Focus, Oliver was top five in run defense grade each of the last three seasons. Oliver is praised for a strong work ethic and a relentless motor.
Cortez Broughton, DT, Cincinnati, 6’2″, 290 lbs
Cortez was 2016 All AAC Second Team and 2018 All AAC First Team. Broughton was selected to Pro Football Focus 2018 All AAC First Team , and per PFF – “Broughton turned a solid 2017 season into a massive 2018 campaign as he led AAC interior defensive linemen with 34 total QB pressures.” Broughton had 18 tackles for loss in 2018 which was the second most among defensive tackles. Cortez had a 7.2% team market share of solo tackles which is a good number for a defensive tackle. He is the new style of DT a smaller, fast DT with great burst off the ball. Broughton achieved praise for his week at the East West Shrine Game. Real GM’s Jeff Risdon: “Watching East DL doing footwork and bag drills. Cincinnati DT Cortez Broughton is thriving, great feet for a big guy.” NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah also listed Broughton as a standout player to watch.
Josh Allen, Edge, Kentucky, 6’5″, 260 lbs
Allen had high market share numbers for the defensive line position. He had the highest solo tackle market share among defensive linemen meeting the production threshold with 56 solo tackles for an 11.5% market share. For sacks his market share of 44.7% with 17 sacks was second best. He was one of only three draft eligible defensive linemen that was above average in all categories (sacks, solo tackles, TFLs) among the production group meeting the threshold. For his accomplishments he took home the hardware in 2018 winning the Bronko Nagurski Award, the Chuck Bednarik Award, the Ronnie Lott Trophy and was selected as an unanimous Consensus All American and the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. Allen has come a long way from a picked on 130 lb high school freshman receiver to a top ten draft pick.
Jaylon Ferguson, Edge, Louisiana Tech, 6’5″, 262 lbs
Ferguson was also one of three draft eligible defensive linemen that was above average in market share in all three categories (sacks, TFLs and solo tackles). His 26 tackles for loss was good for a 26% market share and second best among the productive defensive linemen. Ferguson was the 2018 C-USA Defensive Player of the Year. After making 2015 All-USA Conference Honorable Mention his freshman year, Jaylon made C-USA First Team each of the next three seasons. Ferguson has a great work ethic. “It was all about the work, Study more film. Critique myself harder than anybody else. Work harder than everybody. Push everybody around me because the strength of the wolf is the pack. We are only as strong as our weakest link.” – Ferguson. He uses his hands well to shed blocks as shown in the clip below.
Devin White, LB, LSU, 6’1″, 240 lbs
White was a 2017 and 2018 All Sec Conference First Team. He was a 2018 Consensus All American and one vote short of an unanimous All American. White won the 2018 Dick Butkus Award. As reported by nfl.com, White is a voracious student of the game always looking to improve. He has great range and speed playing sideline to sideline to go with hard hitting.
Ben Burr-Kirven, LB, Washington, 6’0″, 221 lbs
Ben was 2017 All Pac-12 Second Team and 2018 All Pac-12 First Team as well as 2018 Pac-12 Pat Tillman Defensive Player of the Year. His 94 solo tackles was second in the nation and earned second among the productive linebackers team market share with a 18%. Here is a query from sports-reference of college players that have had a minimum 90 solo tackles, 2 interceptions and 4 passes defended in a single season. Ben had similar stats to two current Pro Bowl linebackers.
T.J. Edwards, LB, Wisconsin, 6’1″, 242 lbs
TJ Edwards leads all active linebackers in career interceptions with ten and is ninth among all active players. Edwards was 2017 All Big-10 First Team and 2018 Second Team. Among the top linebackers in 2018 by solo tackles, Edwards was one of only three that ranked above average in four or more of five market share categories – solo tackles (15.2%), TFL (18.5%), sacks (16.7%) and interceptions (21.4%). In high school Edwards only played three games on defense. After a redshirt freshman season at Wisconsin, he became a starting linebacker and has started the last four years. He has strong work ethic and watches hours of film.
Byron Murphy, CB, Washington, 5’11”, 182 lbs
Byron Murphy was on the 2018 All Pac-12 First Team. He was the only cornerback in the group of market share high production DBs that ranked above average in market share for both interceptions and passes defended. murphy has a high football IQ and reads/anticipates plays well. He has ball hawking skills. In high school he was an All-American high school receiver and also a finalist for an award for the top defensive back in high school football. He displays meanness and physicality in playing the run. Fellow teammate linebacker Keishawn Bierria said his work ethic is insane.
Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame, 5’11”, 193 lbs
Over his three years at Notre Dame Julian has 44 passes defended which is tie for second for career passes defended among active players. All others in the top five were all seniors with Julian being the only junior. He makes the all productive list based n his 2017 season due to having only one interception in 2018. His 2017 twenty passes defended was good for a 38.5% team market share which was tops in the all productive group by 7%. Love was one of three finalists for the Jim Thorpe Award. He is a three year starter after earning the starting role for the final eight games as a true freshman. Love is recognized for his football IQ, and cover/ball skills.
Juan Thornhill, SAF, Virginia, 6’0″, 210 lbs
Thornhill was 2017 All-ACC Third Team and 2018 All-ACC First Team. A three year starter at Virginia. Juan has played both cornerback and safety and made All-ACC at both positions. Among active FBS players Juan is tie for the most interceptions with 13. In the group of productive safeties Juan has the second best solo tackle market share (10.7%) and the top pass defended market share (31.6%). Juan made the list based on his 2017 performance as his 2018 passes defended market share was not high enough. According to Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall, Juan plays with emotion and passion. Juan made SportsCenter as a high school basketball player due to his dunking prowess.
Bad idea testing @BryceHall11 & @Juan_Thornhill. Terrific job by Hall to turn and run while using his length and strength to pin the route to the sideline & leverage the route. Thornhill takes a perfect angle, finds the ball & secures the INT. These dudes suffocated that route. pic.twitter.com/iXhqQ7Grkw
— Joe Marino (@TheJoeMarino) November 11, 2018
Nasir Adderley, SAF, Delaware, 6’0″, 200 lbs
Adderley played both cornerback and safety at Delaware. For his 2016 season at cornerback Adderley earned third team All-CAA honors. The next season he was first-team All-CAA. Adderly was a second-team AP FCS All-American and first-team all-conference player in 2018. In 2018 he was the CAA Football Special Teams Player of the Week for returning a kickoff for a touchdown in October. He is reported to have a great work ethic and plays with intensity.
OBJ-esque interception by @DelawareFB‘s Nasir Adderley
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) October 28, 2017
Cole Tracy, K, LSU, 5’11”, 188 lbs
Cole Tracy made the 2018 All-SEC First Team. He was 11th in the nation in Field Goal Percentage (87.9%) and had the second most attempts. He was one of three finalists for the 2018 Lou Groza National Collegiate Place-Kicker Award. He was perfect on 42 point after attempts. Tracy was a graduate transfer to LSU from Division II Assumption College. For his college career Tracy is second among active players across all divisions for career points scored with 502. Cole is known for making clutch kicks like his 42 yarder on the final play to beat Auburn 22-21. He is said to be calm and has been called “Ice” Cole.
Jack Fox, P, Rice, 6’2″, 224 lbs
Jack Fox was 2016 All C-USA Honorable Mention, 2017 C-USA Second Team and 2018 All C-USA First Team. He was the 2018 Conference USA Special Teams Player of the Year. He led C-USA in punting for the second consecutive year, finishing with a career-best 45.5 average. Fox’s average was second best in the nation among punters with at least 60 punts in the regular season and ranked 8th nationally among all punters. He topped the FBS with 3,636 punting yards in the regular season, which also set a school record. Fox had 26 punts of 50 yards or longer and he placed 31 punts inside the 20-yard line, both top figures in the conference. He had at least one 50+ punt in 12 of 13 games this season and is third in the nation with 13 punts inside the 10-yard line. Fox was one of 10 semifinalists for the 2018 Ray Guy Award, which is presented annually to the nation’s top collegiate punter.
Dan Godsil, LS, Indiana, 6’4″, 230 lbs
Dan Godsil made Phil Steele’s Preseason All-American First Team. Dan has started 50 games and has been the team’s long snapper in every game since he arrived at Indiana. Dan is fast, accurate,, big and athletic. All traits that you like to see in a long snapper. Here he long snaps a ball into a trash can. He said it took about five tries.
— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) August 17, 2018
Attached is the data for all players that met the following market share production thresholds.
RB 25% yards from scrimmage
WR 30% receiving yards
TE 15% receiving yards
DL 6% solo tackles, 15% TFL, 25% sacks (20% DTs)
LB 11.5% solo tackle
DB 6% solo tackle, 25% interception, 15% passes defended
The thresholds for market share were based on work done at draftcobern.
For quarterbacks and offensive line I used:
QB – positive sum std deviation on situational stats (3rd down conversion %, red zone TDs % and Big Play %)
OL and ST – All Conference Teams made
All players listed in the spreadsheet meet the criteria and there are many good players listed. For the quarterbacks I have the one QB sheet of ones that met my criteria but also included a sheet on all the quarterbacks for which I looked at situational data.
Here is the data prospects by production.