Quarterback Rating Differentials Thru Four Weeks

With one quarter season of NFL football in the books I took a look at the team’s quarterback rating differential. The league has become a passing league. A quarterback rating is attributable to more than just the quarterback. He obviously plays a large role but the talent of the offensive line and the skills positions also will enhance or decrease a quarterback rating. On defense the whole team plays a part in affecting the opponent’s quarterback rating.

Per game I took the difference between the team’s quarterback rating and the opponent’s rating. I looked at all teams for every game in the first four weeks. I highlighted games that had a 20+ quarterback rating difference. Team’s on the negative side of that difference were dinged for a poor game and team’s on the positive side of the difference were credited with an excel game.

Seven team’s had zero poor games and twelve team’s had zero excel games. Here are the seven teams that had zero poor games and the number of excel games they had. For each team I list the teams that they excelled over. Good teams excelled over are highlighted in blue. The criteria for a “good team” designation is arbitrary based on my gut feel four weeks into the season.

Team Poor Excel Teams Excelled Over
NWE 0 4 BUF NYJ MIA PIT
GNB 0 3 CHI MIN DEN
SEA 0 3 CIN PIT ARI
DAL 0 2 NYG MIA
DET 0 2 KAN ARI
SFO 0 2 TAM CIN
PHI 0 0

 

The Giants and the Panthers are two teams that since making a quarterback switch have zero poor games and one excel game.

Here are the teams with a mixed bag of poor and excel games sorted by excels descending and then poor ascending.

Team Poor Excel
KAN 1 3
JAX 1 2
TAM 1 2
TEN 1 2
BAL 1 1
BUF 1 1
CAR 1 1
CHI 1 1
HOU 1 1
LAR 1 1
MIN 1 1
OAK 1 1
NYG 2 1
PIT 2 1

The following table has the twelve teams that had zero excel game sorted by descending poor games.

Team Poor Excel Teams Excelled By
ARI 3 0 DET CAR SEA
CIN 3 0 SEA SFO PIT
MIA 3 0 BAL NWE DAL
ATL 2 0 MIN TEN
WAS 2 0 CHI NYG
CLE 1 0 TEN
DEN 1 0 GNB
IND 1 0 OAK
LAC 1 0 HOU
NOR 1 0 LAR
NYJ 1 0 NWE
PHI 0 0

 

Five Comments on the Data

  1. The Packers in the NFC and the Patriots in the AFC appear to have the best standing in quarterback rating differential. The Seahawks have as many games as the Packers but they were against lesser opponents. In fact one could argue the Packers have done better than the Patriots when comparing opponents each team excelled against. Because of this and being a Giants fan I like the Packers to win  in the Sunday afternoon game against the Cowboys.
  2. Since switching quarterbacks both the Panthers and the Giants have done well in the quarterback rating differential. Both having an excel and zero poor. The Giants have a big test Sunday against the Vikings. If they pull off the upset they will rise considerably in power ranking lists. I am optimistic that the Giants can pull the upset.
  3. The Chiefs are at three excels and one poor. Mahomes had an 81 quarterback rating to Mathew Stafford’s 118.6 in week four. The Chiefs went on to win that game anyways at 34-30. The Chiefs won all four games and excelled against two good opponents in the Ravens and Jaguars. They deserve to be in the conversation along with the Patriots as the best in the AFC from a quarterback differential view.
  4. On the winless teams of MIA, NYJ, DEN, CIN, WAS and ARI the best  looks to be the Broncos. Only the Jets and the Broncos on that list have only one poor game from a quarterback differential view. Both the Jets and the Broncos had their poor game against good teams of the Packers (DEN) and the Patriots (NYJ). Denver played the Bears and Jaguars close.
  5. The Colts play their games close. They had three of their four games with a quarterback differential of 3 points or less. Those three games were decided by an average of 3.6 points with a 6,2 and 3 point score differential.

For those interested here is the data. The first worksheet  of Weeks Differential  shows each week and all the games with the QBR differential in the far left column. The other sheet of QBR differential Summary shows a summary. The Poor game teams are shown in orange and their excel team opponent in yellow for each week. Summary tables are shown to the right.

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *