A Look at The Top Third Rookie Quarterbacks Since Eli Won A SuperBowl

Here are the starting rookie quarterbacks since the 2012 season sorted by their rookie quarterback rating. I used a minimum three games started in order to get Giant quarterback Daniel Jones on the list. I chose 2012 as it was the year following the Giant Super Bowl victory with Eli Manning as quarterback.

 

In that span the most starting quarterback rookies in a season were seven in 2012 and in 2018. The least was in 2015 when only two rookie quarterbacks started which were Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.

By choosing three starts the notable quarterbacks not on the list and their rookie year starts are Colts Jacoby Brissett (2 starts in 2016), Panther Kyle Allen (1 start in 2018), Viking Kirk Cousins (1 start in 2012), Chiefs Patrick Mahomes (1 start in 2017) and 49er Jimmy Garoppolo (0 starts in 2014). I fel it would be unfair to compare their small sample size to the starting quarterbacks.  Of active quarterbacks on the list all started a minimum of five games their rookie year except for the current 2019 rookies.

The top third of the 37 starting quarterbacks by passer rating since 2012 include three 2019 rookies. They are Gardner Minshew, Mason Rudolph and Daniel Jones.  The season is still young and they will likely drop out of the top third but for now 2019 is the most represented year in the top third.

Of the top third all quarterbacks are still active. But of the twelve there are three sitting on the bench as backups. Those are Cody Kessler (3rd string)  on the Patriots, Nick Mullens on the 49ers and Robert Griffen on the Ravens.   Three are filling in for injured quarterbacks. Those are Gardner Minshew on the Jaguars, Mason Rudolph on the Steelers and Teddy Bridgewater on the Saints.

The remaining six projected long-term starters are Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariotta and Daniel Jones. Not counting Daniel Jones who is in his rookie year, the others have maintained a career quarterback rating comparable to their high rookie season.  Here is a table of how these five rookies did in their rookie year followed by their career stats.

Year Age Tm G GS QBrec Cmp% TD% Int% Y/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk%
2016* 23 DAL 16 16 13-3-0 67.8 5 0.9 8 11.8 229.2 104.9 5.2
Career Prescott 53 53 35-18-0 66.5 4.7 1.9 7.6 11.4 235.5 97 6.7
2017 22 HOU 7 6 3-3-0 61.8 9.3 3.9 8.3 13.5 242.7 103 8.5
Career Watson 28 27 17-10-0 66.9 6.5 2.1 8.3 12.4 258.1 105.4 10.2
2012* 24 SEA 16 16 11-5-0 64.1 6.6 2.5 7.9 12.4 194.9 100 7.7
Career Wilson 117 117 79-37-1 64.6 6.1 1.8 7.9 12.2 231.1 101.5 8.4
2018 23 CLE 14 13 6-7-0 63.8 5.6 2.9 7.7 12 266.1 93.7 4.9
Career Mayfield 19 18 8-10-0 61.8 4.8 3.4 7.7 12.4 261.7 87.4 6
2015 22 TEN 12 12 3-9-0 62.2 5.1 2.7 7.6 12.3 234.8 91.5 9.3
Career Mariotta 61 60 29-31-0 63.1 4.4 2.4 7.5 11.9 215.1 90.5 8

 

It is interesting to note that for the top third rookie quarterbacks that stuck as starters that for the most part their statistical production did not change much from a good rookie season. I will follow these 2019 rookie quarterbacks as the season progresses and report these updated statistics.

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