Giants versus Cardinals

This weekend the Cowboys and the Eagles both lost. So the Giants are a game behind those two teams. According to playoffstatus.com the Giants have a little better than 23% probability of winning the division. Assuming all teams started with a 25% probability that has not dropped that much. The big change in the division is the Redskins who at 1-5 have only a little better than 1% probability of winning the division. Dallas at 34% and Philadelphia at 41% have absorbed the 26% lost by Washington and New York.

The Giants are listed as only having a little better than 3% to make a wildcard spot. Even though Tampa Bay lost, the fact that Arizona won dropped the Giants to the seventh team out of ten in the NFC of teams missing the playoffs. Only Tampa Bay, Washington and Atlanta have less chance to secure a wild card spot in the NFC.

In week seven the Eagles play the Cowboys. The Giants host the Cardinals. If the Giants can come away with a win they will have the same record as either the Cowboys or the Eagles and still be only a game out of first.

The quarterback rating differential is the difference between a team’s passer rating in a game and the opponent’s passer rating.  Summing the game passer rating differentials for all of the Arizona and Giant games I get a -194.2 for the Cardinals and a -182.5 for the Giants.  The Giants sum includes the two games that Eli played. All of the Cardinal’s passer rating differentials were negative. The Giants had a positive differential for two of Daniel Jones’ four games.

The Giants and the Cardinals match up pretty even on paper.

Rookie Quarterback Statistics

Here are the rookie quarterbacks since 2012 that in their rookie season started 3 games and had a 60% completion rate, a 70.0 passer rating, a 3.0 passing touchdown percentage and passing yards per game of 175 yards.

 

Here are the rookie quarterbacks since 2012 that in their rookie season started 3 games and had a 60% completion rate, a 70.0 passer rating, a 2.5 passing touchdown percentage and 6.0 yards per pass attempt.

 

Here are the active quarterbacks that as rookie quarterbacks since 2012 in their first six games as starter had a 60% completion rate, a 70.0 passer rating, a 6.0 yards per pass attempt and 3 passing touchdowns.

Here are these quarterbacks sorted by decreasing rookie win percentage.

Player Year Age Draft Tm GS W L T 4QC GWD Win % Cmp% TD% Int% Rate Sk Y/A Y/G
Dak Prescott 2016 23 4-135 DAL 16 13 3 0 5 5 81.25% 67.76 5 0.87 104.9 25 7.99 229.2
Russell Wilson 2012 24 3-75 SEA 16 11 5 0 3 4 68.75% 64.12 6.6 2.54 100 33 7.93 194.9
Robert Griffin 2012 22 1-2 WAS 15 9 6 0 3 2 60.00% 65.65 5.1 1.27 102.4 30 8.14 213.3
Daniel Jones 2019 22 1-6 NYG 4 2 2 0 1 1 50.00% 60.71 3.6 4.29 74.1 10 6.58 184.2
Deshaun Watson 2017 22 1-12 HOU 6 3 3 0 50.00% 61.76 9.3 3.92 103 19 8.33 242.7
Teddy Bridgewater 2014 22 1-32 MIN 12 6 6 0 3 3 50.00% 64.43 3.5 2.99 85.2 39 7.26 224.5
Baker Mayfield 2018 23 1-1 CLE 13 6 7 0 3 4 46.15% 63.79 5.6 2.88 93.7 25 7.66 266.1
Carson Wentz 2016 24 1-2 PHI 16 7 9 0 1 1 43.75% 62.44 2.6 2.31 79.3 33 6.23 236.4
Gardner Minshew 2019 23 6-178 JAX 5 2 3 0 1 1 40.00% 63.92 4.6 1.03 97.5 14 7.43 240.3
Nick Mullens 2018 23 SFO 8 3 5 0 0 1 37.50% 64.23 4.7 3.65 90.8 17 8.31 284.6
Kyler Murray 2019 22 1-1 ARI 6 2 3 1 1 2 33.33% 64.29 2.9 1.68 87.6 21 6.99 277.3
Mason Rudolph 2019 24 3-76 PIT 3 1 2 0 33.33% 67.02 7.4 2.13 102.5 3 6.87 161.5
Marcus Mariota 2015 22 1-2 TEN 12 3 9 0 2 2 25.00% 62.16 5.1 2.7 91.5 38 7.62 234.8
Cody Kessler 2016 23 3-93 CLE 8 0 8 0 0.00% 65.64 3.1 1.03 92.3 21 7.08 153.3

 

Cardinals vs Giants Pass Defense

In Pass defense the Cardinals and the Giants rank 30th and 31st respectively in passing yards per game allowed. The Cardinals allow 281 yards per game and the Giants 285. In opposing quarterback passer rating the Giants are 25th with a 103 opposing rating and the Cardinals are 31st with a 121.8 opposing rating. In number of 20+ yard passing plays allowed the Cardinals are 30th with 25 allowed and the Giants are 32nd with 30 plays allowed. In passing average yards allowed the Giants 31st with 9.3 yard average and the Cardinals are 29th with 8.5 yards. In passing 1st down percentage allowed the Cardinals are 30th with 42.4% and the Giants are 31st with 43.1%.

Receivers

The teams match up as far as 2019 receiving yards per game. With Sterling Shepard most likely out in due to concussion protocol, the Giants and the Cardinals both have two receivers in the top fifty in receiving yards per game. The Giants have tight end Evan Engram at 22 with 74.6 yards and Golden Tate at 46 with 57.5 yards per game. The Cardinals have Larry Fitzgerald at 29 with 71.2 yards per game and Christian Kirk at 42 with 60.5 yards per game. This is assuming Evan Engram will play as he has been out with a knee injury. The Giants have two receivers high on 1st down percentage with Darius Slayton having a 75% 1st down percent on 12 receptions and Cody Core a 66.7% but on only three receptions.

Rushing

The Cardinals are fifth in average rushing yards (5.0) and the Giants are seventh (4.9). The Giants leading rusher, Saquon Barkley, has missed the last three games due to a high ankle sprain. He may be back for the Cardinal game. The Cardinals lead rusher, David Johnson, is recovering from an ankle injury and will also likely be playing on Sunday. The Giants are 13th in rushing average allowed with a 4.2 average allowed. The Cardinals are 22nd in rushing average allowed with a 4.7 average allowed.  The Cardinals have only allowed one rushing play of 20+ yards to the Giants who have allowed five. The Cardinals have only allowed two rushing touchdowns while the Giants have allowed seven. The Giants lead in rushing 1st down defense allowing only 18.8 % of rushing attempts. The Cardinals have allowed 23.4% first downs per attempt.

Scoring

The Giants are 15th in touchdowns scored with 14 for the year and the Cardinals are 22nd with 12. It happens that they are even in rushing (5) and receiving (7) touchdowns. The Giants edge is that they have scored two defensive touchdowns to the Cardinals zero.

Summary

This matchup should be a high passing yards show. If Saquon Barkley is back that would be huge for the Giants advantage. It looks like he will be. Counting on having Barkley and Engram back I give the edge to the Giants in a passing yards shootout.  Enjoy the game!

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