I have pulled together this data on some of the draft quarterbacks. I have been reading draft analysis material from James Cobern at draftcoberm.com. He has done work on analyzing past quarterbacks to find any common attributes for pro-bowl and all-pro players. You can read his quarterback analysis here at – draftcobern.com – nfl-draft-quarterback-production-analytics. Basically he found a strong correlation between TD/INT ratio and completion percentage and star quarterbacks. He combined these two along with a strength of schedule variable to come up with the Complete QB Stat Score. You may have seen his videos on youtube. In those he also proposes that there is a strong correlation between great quarterbacks and their high school production.
Using his data I came up with a list of the draft quarterbacks that meet his criteria for potential pro-bowl or all-pro quarterbacks based on their college performance. Here is the list to which I added their college and high school statistics. I have highligted positive stats in green and negative stats in yellow. For the high school data I simply highlighted the whole line if they had a strong high school production. On the college stats the highlighting I sometimes used generalities such as QBs should have a TD to interception ratio above 2 or have a completion percentage of 60% or better. For other stats I took the average of these QBs and marked the ones above average in green. For the rest – age, bmi, games started (GS) and games won (GW) – i used a criteria from this machine learning model on predicting quarterback success. For instance the model found that quarterbacks with a win percentage less than 56.1% in their college career had 96.6% chance of being a bust in the NFL. The model is at duelingdata.blogsport.com. Cobern only analyzes FBS players but I added one FCS quarterback that looked promising. I have no QBStat score on him. The list is ordered and grouped based on projected round of selection according to draftscout.com.
My opinion on the quarterbacks
1) I was surprised to see that Rosen’s career TD to Int ratio was worse than Darnold’s. Granted Darnold has additional issues with fumbles but I always hear about his interceptions but not so Rosen.
2) My take on pick 2 is if Webb is not the future then pick Darnold. If he is gone Mayfield looks like a viable alternate.
3) If the Giants forego a QB at pick 2 then Rudolph looks good for a later pick such as later round one if we trade down or the top of round two.
4) After those three (Darnold, Mayfield or Rudolph) I would forego taking any quarterback later unless we pick up a sixth or seventh round pick. Rather be aggressive with the UDFAs and get one of either Ferguson, Barrett, Woodside, Wolford, Schor, or Hill. Even though Wolford and Hill have poor college career stats they both had outstanding high school production and they both had good final years in college.
Here is an excel file of the quarterbacks shown here – qbs.xlsx