The Giants and Looking for the Quarterback Successor in the Draft

The Giants will most likely draft a quarterback sometime during the NFL draft. This considering they have 12 picks and a 38 year old quarterback, the third oldest in the NFL. Head coach Pat Shurmur has said he’d like to find Eli’s successor “sooner rather than later” and nd would ideally like that young quarterback to sit behind Manning for a year. GM Dave Gettleman has said his “dream” is to find the Giants their next franchise quarterback. The Giants have a high pick this year and twelve total picks of draft capital. There is no guarantee they will have as good a position for next year’s draft. Some feel that a team should pick a quarterback at every other year given the value of the position and difficulty in finding a “franchise” one. Here are some scenarios for a quarterback selection in order of my preference.

1) Round 1 Pick 3: Kyler Murray

The Cardinals do not pick Murray and he lasts to pick 3. The Giants trade their 6th, 37th and 108th pick to the Jets and select Murray at 3. I don’t buy the argument that the Giants and Jets would not trade. They are in different conferences. I think the Giants are more likely to trade with the Jets than the 49ers.

Murray is the consensus number one quarterback according to anonymous conversations with officials from over a dozen NFL teams. It was not unanimous but Murray was the clear favorite. His statistics are noticeably ahead of the other prospects. Looking at 26 quarterback prospects Murray’s percentage of 3rd down plays that made 1st down (50% – 1st), percentage of red zone plays that made touchdowns (35.4% – 3rd) and percentage of total plays that were big plays (27.9% – 1st) were significantly better than any other of the 26 prospects. As far as being a mobile quarterback, among all quarterback prospects Murray had the fifth highest rushing yards per game (71.5 yards), the highest rushing average (7.15 yards) and was tied for the third most rushing touchdowns (12). In looking at fifteen top quarterbacks for these six stats just mentioned plus six more (completion %, passing yards/game, passing yards/attempt, passing TDs/game, TD/Interception ratio and passer rating) Murray was the only quarterback that was above average in all twelve stats. The next best QB excelled at nine stats.

2) Round 1 Pick 6: Dwayne Haskins

The Giants stay put and select Haskins at pick 6.

Haskins is regarded as possibly the best pure pocket passer in the quarterback class. He has a strong arm. Like Murray he was above average in all stats but the rushing ones. He was the quarterback behind Murray, excelling at nine of the twelve stats. He is not a mobile quarterback and the three rushing stats he was not above average. Haskins had the third best completion percentage (70%) among all quarterback prospects and the most touchdown passes per game (3.57).

3) Round 2 Pick 37: Trade for Josh Rosen

If the Cardinals pick Murray the the Giants trade the 37th pick for Josh Rosen. If needed add in pick 108 (top of the 4th).

Josh Rosen may be available for a trade if the Cardinals pick Kyler Murray. Rosen is regarded as a pure pocket passer coming out of college. Rosen is a smart quarterback, has played in a variety of offensive schemes and has a strong arm. Rosen answered some questions about him in his rookie year showing both a toughness and a good work ethic. He is worth a chance for the price of a high round two or low round one draft pick.

4) Round 1 Pick 29: Will Grier

The Giants trade their 37th and 95th picks to the Seahawks to move up into the first round and select Will Grier at 29. The Patriots have been rumored to have an interest in Grier, thus the trade up.

Among all quarterbacks Grier had the second most passing yards per game (351 yards) and the second most passing touchdowns per game (3.36). He also has a strong arm. Grier was third in the twelve stats with eight stats above average. He fell short in the three rushing stats and in the percentage of big plays. Matt Walkman of The Rookie Scouting Portfolio has Grier as his top quarterback on his big board (the podcast).

5) Round 3 Pick 95: Ryan Finley

Of 26 top quarterback prospects Finley was second in third down conversions (48.6%). Of those 26 quarterbacks Finley was fourth in passing big play percentage (21%) with the seventh most attempts (452). Finley has improved his completion percentage, passing yards and quarterback rating each of the last three seasons. In 2018 he was sixth among draft prospects in completion percentage (67.4%).

6) Round 4 pick 108: Brett Rypien

Of 26 top quarterback prospects Rypien was third in third down conversions (48.4%). Brett Rypien is the 2018 Mountain West Conference Player of the Year. Rypien meets all of Bill Parcells’ seven rules for drafting a quarterback. He has a 77% win percentage with 48 career starts and is a 4 year starter. Rypien had four games in 2018 in which he had a passer rating of over 200. Against Colorado State he had a completion percentage of 84.6%, passed for 308 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions.

2019 NFL Draft Fullback Prospects

There are currently 20 fullbacks on NFL rosters across 17 teams. there are two teams with multiple fullbacks – the Raiders with two and the Chiefs with three. Every division has a fullback and the AFC West is the only division where every team has a fullback.

There is a fullback from every draft class going back to 2011. From the 2018 draft class there are five fullbacks. Of the 20 fullbacks half of them played that position in college. Of the 10 that changed position tight end was the most common prior position with four playing tight end in college.

Of the 20 fullbacks 12 were undrafted free agent signings. The others were spread across draft rounds by 1 in round 4, 1 in round 5, 5 in round 6 and 1 in round 7.

Of the top ten NFL teams in terms of average yards per carry half of those teams had a fullback. The same holds true for the bottom ten NFL teams in average yards/carry – half of those teams have a fullback. The same ratios hold when looking at rushing yards per game. In 1st down percentage on rushing attempts 60% of the top 10 teams had a fullback and 40% of the bottom 10 had a fullback. In rushing TDs 70% of the top 10 had a fullback and 60% of the bottom 10 had a fullback.

According to nfldraftscout.com the average for the last five drafts is 3 fullbacks selected. The five year trend shows a decrease with the selections starting in 2018 of 2, 2, 3, 5 and 5. They list the current undrafted free agent signings at 25.

There are a lot of “old school” football fullbacks available in this draft. These guys work hard, enjoy contact and have a team-first attitude. Here are my selections in order of ranking of the top six fullback draft prospects.

  1. Alec Ingold
    Ingold is the all-around fullback package. He is a willing and able blocker that plays with a nasty streak and will flatten opponents. In 2018 he had 26 rushing attempts, averaged 5.5 yds/attempt and had 6 rushing touchdowns. That amounts to a score every 4.3 times he touched the ball. He had seven 3rd down rushing attempts of 1-6 yards to go and he made six of them. His one 4th down attempt he got 5 yards and the 1st down. Ingold helped block for running back Jonathan Taylor who was the only back to have over 2,000 yards rushing in 2018. Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy had this to say – The lone true fullback in this year’s Seniorbowl is FB Alec Ingold. During our roster building process we polled over half the NFL teams and Ingold had a draftable grade from every club, which is rare these days at the FB position.
  2. George Aston
    “George is a monster in there,” coach Pat Narduzzi said this past season. Aston is another “old school” football player. He bench pressed 29 reps at his pro day which would have been second among combine running backs. In 2016, Aston scored 5 receiving and 5 rushing touchdowns. Only 28 players over the last 10 years have scored at least 5 TDs in both phases. Aston is one of only two in this draft class to do so. Those 10 touchdowns in 2016 came on just 44 touches or a touchdown every 4.4 touches. In 2017 Aston was injured and contributed as a reserve in only two games. Granted a lot changes from year to year, but it is worth noting that Pittsburgh went from 86th in rushing yards /game (148) and 97th in average rush yards (3.87) in 2017 to 18th in rush yards/game (228) and 13th in average rush yards (5.6) in 2018. They had the same two running backs both years. The major differences were three new o-linemen and George Aston was now healthy and playing. One of the o-line changes was the loss of second round draft pick Brian O’Neill. Pittsburgh’s offensive line coach Dave Borbely called Aston the best fullback he’s ever been around. Borbely is in his 39th season as a college offensive linemen coach and run game coordinator.
  3. Chandler Cox
    Cox is another throwback fullback that is a great blocker and has a team-first attitude. He is content blocking if that is what the coaches want and he can help the team win. Cox started 10 games at fullback his true freshman season. He has played in 52 games with 41 career starts. You can see what a big part Chandler is in the Auburn offense in the 2017 PFF snap counts. Chandler had 504 snaps which compared favorably to running back Kerryon Johnson‘s 566. PFF graded Cox that year at 72.1 which was 14th best on the Auburn offense. As a true freshman in 2015 he made the PFF list of top true freshman by position at first team fullback and also made their All-Sec best players by position list. In 2018 Chandler had four touches in the red-zone and came away with 3 touchdowns – two rushing and one receiving. The other touch was a reception for a first down. His eleven receptions in 2018 yielded seven first downs and a long of 19 yards. However his biggest use will always be as a blocker. “Chandler does all our dirty work for us,” Auburn offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey said. “(A) really tough physical guy and one of our leaders and I think he’s improved tremendously, just technique fundamentals…. He was already a good player and I think he’s improved. (2017)”
  4. Winston Dimel
    After a redshirt freshman year, Dimel made 2015 Big 12 First Team FB, 2016 Big 12 First Team FB and 2017 Big 12 All Conference Second Team FB and 2018 Conference USA Honorable Mention. He is a four year starter at fullback and has started all 45 games he has played at fullback. He scored 22 rushing touchdowns in his three years at Kansas State and another three receiving touchdowns. He was injured in 2018 and only played six games. However he still made C-USA All Conference Honorable Mention. Dimel is another tough bruiser.
  5. Britton Abbott
    Abbot made All Big-12 Honorable Mention in both 2017 and again in 2018 as fullback. Pete Fiutak of College Football News had Abbott ranked as the fourth best Oklahoma State Offensive Player going into the 2018 season. Britton has been characterized as being a tough, physical capable blocker. He has a strong work ethic and works to be the best he can be in anything he does. In his words – ” … what ever coaches ask me to do that is what I’m going to do and do it to the best of my ability. Going to the next level, I’m going to do the same thing, what ever they ask me and work really hard at getting the best I can be at it and gain value by doing as much as I can.” .Abbott had a perfect 4.0 grade point average since stepping on campus, and graduated Summa Cum Laude in December 2017 (3.9-4.0 GPA).

2019 NFL Draft Offensive Line Prospects

Here are the offensive linemen prospects for the 2019 NFL draft prospects ranked. The bar to get on the list was to have made an All Conference Team anyone of the years in college. First, Second, or Third Teams as well as Honorable Mention were acceptable. I did not use the All Freshman Team. The five year average of offensive linemen chosen in the draft is 40 according to nfldraftscout.com

    Days 1 and 2 Picks

  1. Jonah Williams
    He treats everything — treatment, weight-lifting, film study, practices and games — like it’s the most important activity he will do. A 2018 unanimous All-American, one of eight and the only offensive lineman in 2018. One of only seven offensive line prospects to make All Conference First Team for two years.
  2. Dalton Risner
    “I want to bury guys in the dirt on every single play” – Risner. Off the field, he is kind and considerate but once he steps on the field he becomes a mauler. A four year starter, Risner made All Big-12 First Team each of his last three years. One of only two offensive line draft prospects to make All Conference First Team for three years.
  3. Cody Ford
    According to Sports Info Solutions, Oklahoma ran 4.4 yards before contact when running to Ford’s gap and had 7.4 yards per attempt for such runs. The word “mauler” consistently comes up on reports about Cody Ford. As reported by Sports Info Solutions Cody Ford had only two blown blocks in the passing game in 2018.
  4. Garrett Bradbury
    Bradbury participated in all six of the offensive line combine drills and achieved above lineman targets in all six. He was the only offensive lineman to achieve all drill targets at the combine. Bradbury won the 2018 Rimington Award presented to the top center. He did not allow a quarterback pressure all season.

  5. Andre Dillard
    According to Sports Info Solutions Dillard had a blown block on only 0.44% of his passing plays. Dillard had a good combine. The site seahawksdraftblog.com computes a Trench Explosion Formula (tef) for offensive linemen. It puts value on the combine bench press, vertical jump and broad jump. Dillard had the third highest weighted tef among offensive linemen. The weighted tef takes into account the players weight.

  6. Chris Lindstrom
    According to Sports Info Solutions Lindstrom had zero blown blocks on passing downs in 2018. His blown block percentage on rushing plays of 0.99% was also very good. According to Sports Info Solutions Lindstrom has had only 1 holding penalty and 1 false start in three years of play from 2016-2018 with 38 starts over that time-frame. At the Senior Bowl practice a couple of directors of player personnel summed up Lindstrom when they said, “This Boston College guard is tough as hell.” Ranked as the fourth best offensive lineman at the combine for weighted tef (See Andre Dillard).

  7. Max Scharping
    Sharping was the only other offensive lineman prospect, besides Risner, to make all conference first team each of three years. The other year he made the Football Writers Association of America Freshman All-America Team. Last year the only penalty Scharping had was one false start. After a redshirt freshman year, Sharping started 53 consecutive games, every game of his career from 2015-18, and played every offensive snap (998 plays) in 2018. He gave up one sack last year for his first sack allowed since 2015. When asked at the combine who is the toughest player you faced in 2018, defensive end Brian Burns responded Max Scharping. Burns is a projected first round pick.
  8. Greg Little
    Started at Left Tackle as a true freshman and held that position as a starter for the next two years. In 2018 Ole Miss ranked ninth in total offense (498 yds/game) and Little allowed just one sack, two QB hits, and seven QB hurries all season. As reported by Pro Football Focus, over the past two seasons Little allowed just 26 total pressures on 993 pass-blocking snaps.

  9. Beau Benzschawel
    One of only seven offensive line draft prospects to make all conference first team the last two seasons. On rushing plays the Badgers averaged 7.5 yards per attempt when running to Beau’s gap. Beau has played in 49 games and made 49 consecutive starts on what is regarded as one of the top offensive lines in the nation. Wisconsin was one of ten semifinalists for the 2018 Joe Moore Award given to the most outstanding offensive line units in college football. Wisconsin and Army were the only two FBS teams that gained 150+ rush yards in every game this season. Pro Football Focus had Beau as the highest-graded guard by a long shot as he dominated in both pass protection and blocking for the run.
  10. Kaleb McGary
    Kaleb McGary was voted Winner of the 2018 Morris Trophy as the top PAC-12 offensive lineman as voted by opposing teams defensive linemen. As reported by Sports Info Solutions, Kaleb had a 0.44% blown block percentage on passing downs and a 0.93% on rush plays. That was the second lowest combined blown block percentage (1.4%) among their top 15 offensive tackles. Only Jawaan Taylor had a better combined percentage (1.1%). McGary has been through his share of adversity to get where he is as detailed in this Houston Chronicle article. An athletic lineman, McGrary finished sixth in the weighted tef (see Andre Dillard) among offensive linemen at the combine. One of only seven offensive line propects to make All Conference First Team for two years.

  11. Michael Deiter
    One of only seven offensive line prospects to make All Conference First Team for two years. After a redshirt freshman season, Deiter started on the offensive line for every game (54) over the next four years. He has started at left guard (24 starts), center (16) and left tackle (14). Like his teammate Beau Benzschawel, Deiter has been a starting lineman on a Wisconsin team considered to be one of the top offensive lines. Deiter was the 2018 Big-10 Rimington–Pace Offensive Lineman of the Year.
  12. Yodny Cajuste
    Cajuste is a tough aggressive lineman that plays with power. He had the fourth best bench press (32) among offensive linemen. Cajuste was a Big 12 Co-Offensive Lineman of the Year in 2018 along with Risner and Samia. As reported by Pro Football Focus, Cajuste allowed only 11 pressures on 414 pass-blocking attempts last year.
  13. David Edwards
  14. In 2017 running backs averaged 7.8 yards per carry running to the right of right tackle Edwards. In 2018 they averaged 6.2 yards per attempt when running to his gap and averaged 2.8 yards before contact in that gap. In addition Edwards protected the blind side of their left handed quarterback. In 2017 the last year Edwards played a full season and was not injured Wisconsin was tie for 2nd in the Big Ten in lowest number of quarterback sacks allowed (21) which was 37th among the 129 FBS teams. Edwards is a massive tackle (6’6.25″ and 308 lbs) with an explosive first step that plays with a bully demeanor.

  15. Connor McGovern
    In 2017 McGovern played starting center for all 13 games and in 2018 he was starting guard for 12 games and one game at center. He is a three year starter having started nine games as a true freshman at guard in 2016. In November 2018, Mel Kiper Jr. listed McGovern as the best offensive guard in the 2019 class. Connor is a good run blocker. As reported by Sports Info Solutions, the Penn State running backs averaged 6.5 yards per carry when running to McGovern’s gap and averaged 3.4 yards before contact when doing so. McGovern had a 50.9% positive blocking percentage on such plays. Of their seven top graded guards only Deiter and Benzschawel had a higher percentage.

  16. Ben Powers
    “I love taking a grown man’s dreams and crushing them”-Ben Powers. Powers was outstanding in the Senior Bowl practice week. He was regarded as almost a brick wall in 1-on-1 drills. Powers was All Conference First team on the team that won the Joe Moore Award for the nation’s top front-five. Powers plays thru the whistle and likes to throw people to the ground at the end. As reported by Sports Info Solutions, Powers was below 1% on blown blocks in both the pass (0.48%) and run (0.85%) plays. The sum of his percentage of blown blocks was second best among their top seven guards.
  17. Nate Davis
    Davis stood out at the Senior Bowl. It was reported that he consistently stood up pass rushers during one-on-one drills and moved defenders off the ball in the run game. As reported by Pro Football Focus, Davis allowed only four pressures on 234 pass-blocking snaps in 2018.
  18. Day 3 Picks

  19. Lamont Gaillard
    Gaillard is a standout from the East West Shrine Game. Gaillard is a three year starter with 42 career starts. He won the Georgia “Own the Trenches” award following spring drills in 2017. This on what is regarded as one of the best offensive lines in college football. With Gaillard at center the Bulldogs had four different 1,000 yard rushers over a two year period. That is a first in NCAA history. ESPN analyst Cole Cubelic picked Gaillard as his top SEC center entering the 2018 season and had this to say – “He plays his ass off, consistently finishes, never leaves his teammates out to dry and for me he is a joy to watch.” Cubelic should know a good center as he played center at Auburn from 1996-2001.
  20. Tytus Howard
    Howard played in the FCS and had a good year allowing only one sack. He has a tremendous work ethic. He entered Alabama State at 6’3″ and 235 lbs. Through an industrious weight room regime he is now 6’5″ and 322 lbs. As reported on Pro Football Focus, he had the highest win rate of any tackle in the 1-on-1s at the Senior Bowl.
  21. Bobby Evans
    Evans has a powerful punch to jolt defenders and a vice like grip. He is a three year starter on one of the best offensive lines. Evans was moved to left tackle last year. Oklahoma won the Joe Moore Award in 2018 given to the nations outstanding offensive line.
  22. Dru Samia
    Samia was named one of three top offensive lineman in the Big-12 in 2018. He is ferocious competitor that plays with a nasty streak and constantly looks for work.
  23. Michael Jordan
    In his freshman year Jordan started at guard and made Freshman All American. He was the first true freshman to start on Ohio State’s offensive line in 23 years, or since Orlando Pace did so in 1994. In his 2017 sophomore year he stayed as the starting guard and made Big-10 All conference (1st Team coaches, 2nd team media). He switched to center in 2018 and still mad all conference 2nd team. Jordan played in every game between 2016 and 2018 – 41 in all – and started every one of them. Jordan had a good combine hitting offensive line targets in 4 of his 6 drill events and making NFL analyst Chad Reuter’s All Combine Team.

  24. Ross Pierschbacher
    Ross was one of three finalists for the 2018 Rimington Trophy presented to the most outstanding center in college football. In 2018 he recorded 36 knockdown blocks and allowed only a single pressure while giving up just two sacks in 962 snaps. His 57 career starts is in a three way tie for the most career starts in FBS history. As reported by Pro Football Focus, Ross allowed only four pressures on 422 pass blocking snaps in 2018. This on an Alabama team that was number one in passing efficiency. Ross may be first player in college history to start four straight national championship games. He is a four year starter and as played all three interior o-line positions. He started as center just in 2018 and made All Conference Second Team.
  25. Joe Lowery
    After making All MAC Second Team in 2017, Lowery went on to make All Conference First Team in 2018. He was highly graded by Pro Football Focus in 2018 – achieving their MAC Conference Player of the Year, coming in tie for second among draft prospects for offensive tackles ranked by run-blocking grade, and he was their fifth highest ranked tackle for the year. However he was ranked the 43rd offensive lineman on their draft big board citing concerns about his play strength. Lowery was a two season team captain and a quiet leader on the team. He played thru a painful injury during the 2016 season because his team needed him. “That man, he’s got crazy mental toughness,” said Pruehs, Ohio starting center (2017). “There would be days last year when he couldn’t even move, from what he was going through with his injury. He pushes through. Doesn’t tell anyone about it, doesn’t want it to affect other guys”.
  26. Oli Udoh
    After a redshirt freshman season, Udoh started all four years at Elon. In 2018 he made Phil Steele’s 2018 FCS All American First Team, CAA All Conference First Team and Hero Sports FCS All American First Team. At the combine Udoh met o-line targets in 3 of his 6 drills and his weighted tef score was 12th among offensive linemen. He had the second biggest wingspan and the third largest arm-length among offensive linemen at the combine. Here is his combine spider graph.

  27. Nate Herbig
    Herbig is a big powerful guard. He weighed in at 335 lbs at the combine which was tie for second heaviest among o-linemen. He bench pressed 29 reps which was tie for sixth among o-linemen. Nate, a junior, is a three year starter. In 2016 he played 13 games and started six games at left guard. He was the first true freshman at Stanford to start on offensive line since 2012. Nate made ESPN’s true freshman All-American team – “A tough, physical player in a scheme that freshman often struggle to be tough enough to succeed, Herbig found a way to make it work at left guard.”. In 2017 he made Pac-12 All Conference First Team and helped block for running back Bryce Love. Love was second in the nation that year in rushing yards. In 2018 Herbig was injured and played in only seven games which he also started. He still earned Pac-12 All Conference Second Team.
  28. Lanard Bonner
    Bonner was selected Sun Belt All Conference First Team in 2017 and 2018. He won the 2017 Gary Withrow Award presented to the team’s outstanding offensive lineman of the year. In 2017 he helped lead the Red Wolves to a school-record 495 yards total offense per game that ranked as the 8th highest average in the nation. Praised by offensive line coach Allen Rudolph not only for his talent but also for how he has “worked his butt off” in the weight room, film study and drill work. Bonner plays with a little bit of nastiness and competes through the whistle. Lanard Bonner, 6’5” and 310 pounds, is said to have extreme athletic ability with a mauler mentality.
  29. John Keenoy
    Keenoy is a four year starter who started every game played (50 of 51 possible games) at center. He started 12 games as a true freshman in 2015. He made MAC All Conference Team the last three of those four years making 2016 (2nd team), 2017 (First team) and 2018 (Second Team). Going into the 2018 season Pro Football Focus had Keenoy as tied for the second best pass-blocking center from 2017. He allowed just two pressures on 329 pass-protection snaps in 2017 and only seven over 2016 and 2017. Keenoy had not allowed a sack in 2016 and 2017. In 2017 was lone junior voted by teammates for “Captain’s Award”. He is a strong run blocker, a “People mover”. Western Michigan has been in the top 27% of teams in the nation for rushing yards per game each of the last three seasons. As reported on RotoWorld, Keenoy finished No. 1 among draft-eligible centers last year in run-block success rate, per PFF. He also finished inside the top-five in pass-block efficiency, snaps per inside pressure, and snaps per outside pressure. Keenoy will be knocked due to his size. He was among the four lightest offensive linemen at the combine at 299 lbs and his height (6’3) was among the eight shortest. However per WMU head coach P.J. Fleck when John was competing for a starting role his freshman year as the smallest player competing – “He’s a worker and he’s tough…. he’s willing to continue to get better and I think that’s half the battle. The kid’s willing and he shows it. It’s important to him.” John went on to earn the starting role at center as a true freshman.
  30. O’Shea Dugas
    Dugas is a four year starter getting the start as a true freshman and starting 43 games out of 49 played. In his four years Dugas made the 247Sports True Freshman All-American Team (2015), All Conference USA Second Team (2016), All Conference USA Second Team (2017) and the All Conference USA First Team (2018). Dugas has played both guard and tackle during his LA Tech career. In 2017 Dugas’s mother passed away during the football season. Dugas plays hard now in part for his mother and started the day following her funeral versus UAB because he knew that is what she would have wanted. Here is an inspiring article about his relationship with his mother. This Shrine Game practice report had this to say about Dugas – “…excels as a run blocker, but he has held up well in pass protection. He is a big guy with great strength. He sustains those blocks well and his hand placement has been good.”.
  31. Tyler Jones
    Jones made All ACC Conference First Team in 2018. He is a three year starter at left tackle and has started every game at left tackle over the last three years. NC State has ranked fifth in sacks allowed per game over the last two seasons with only 0.85 (2018) and 1.0 (2017) allowed per game. Jones played 98% of the team’s offensive snaps in 2016 and 2017, and 93% in 2018. In 2017 Jones allowed just 14 pressures which was tied for fewest among returning ACC tackles. In 2017, NC State finished tied for No. 1 in the country at 0.2 QB pressure percentage, per PFF_College. Ryan Finley was hit just 24 times on 529 dropbacks. Tyler Jones was stellar at the east West Shrine Game and had the following reviews – “Jones has been a standout at practices, practically stonewalling anyone who enters his vicinity.” – SBNation. And also – “North Carolina State OL Tyler Jones was arguably the best player on the field today. A college left tackle, Jones kicked inside and dominated on the interior. His lateral mobility, body composition, length and ability to stay square led to a standout performance, particularly in 1v1 drills.” – Day 1 Practice Notes The Draft Network. At the combine Tyler met o-line targets in 3 of the 5 drill events he participated and came in 14th in weighted tef (Trench Explosion Formula) out of 45 o-linemen that participated in those drills.

  32. Bunchy Stallings
    Stallings was SEC All Conference First Team in 2018. He was selected as an All American by the Associate Press and by the Athletic. Stallings was responsible for only one-half quarterback sack all year. He totaled 170 blocks at the point of attack and had 55 knockdown blocks. Stallings is said to be a mauler in the run game and helped contribute to running back Benny Snell breaking 1,000 yards rushing each of the last three seasons. Stallings was selected to the ESPN 2018 mid-season All-America team and they had this to say – “He has been a road-grader for the Wildcats. ”
  33. Jackson Barton
    Barton made All Conference Pac-12 First Team in 2018. Barton has started every game for the last two seasons at left tackle. At the combine Barton met o-line drill targets in 4 of his 6 events and was one of only 16 o-linemen too do so. In the weighted tef (Trench Explosion Formula) Barton was 19th out of 45. Barton was tie for the third tallest offensive lineman (6’7″ 1/4). While o-linemen usually are preferred shorter, Barton uses his arm length effectively to redirect targets. According to his draft profile at nfl.com he delivers blocks with some initial pop, shows good upper body power and has a finishers demeanor. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said the Bartons (Jackson & Cody Barton) are very conscious about everything they do and praised them for having phenomenal work ethics.
  34. Ryan Pope
    Ryan Pope made the 2018 Mountain West All Conference Second Team. Started 21 games at right tackle and his final 3 games at left tackle. Ryan struggled a bit at the Shrine game defensing against Oklahoma State defensive end Jordan Brailford. Pope blocked for a SDSU team that Ryan has the measurements for the o-line as he was tie for the 12th heaviest o-lineman at the combine (320 lbs) and he was tie for the sixth biggest wingspan (84.5″). Ryan is known as a mauler who plays with a bit of a mean streak. In 2017 San Diego State was the ninth best team in the nation in yards per rush attempt and eleventh in rushing yards per game.
  35. Calvin Anderson
    Anderson is a three year All Conference Honorable Mention. He is a four year starter and started all 50 games he has played in his college career almost exclusively at left tackle. Before becoming a graduate transfer to Texas, at Rice in the 2016 season he is credited with 26 knockdowns and five pancake blocks. As reported by Pro Football Focus, Anderson finished 2017 with a 98.0 pass blocking efficiency. That made him tie for fourth among 2019 draft eligible players.
  36. Chuma Edoga
  37. Edoga made the 2018 Pac-12 All Conference Second Team. As reported by Pro Football Focus, Edoga allowed just four hurries across 304 pass-blocking snaps in 2018 and has no sacks or hits allowed tied to his name. The Draft Network listed Edoga as one of the outstanding players at the Senior Bowl. However Edoga does carry some red flags that needs to be followed up on. In 2016, Chuma Edoga was ejected in the first series against Utah State for making contact with an official. This coupled with a Matt Miller tweet in January on Edoga raise concerns that need further investigation.

There were a handful of players that made All Conference that I chose not to list. I viewed them more as prospects to be signed as free agents following the draft. Those prospects are

  • Martez Ivey
    2018, 2017 and 2016 All Conference Second Team
  • Alec Eberle
    2017 All Conference Second Team
  • Tyree St. Louis
    2018 All Conference Honorable Mention
  • Justice Powers
    2018 All Conference First Team

2019 NFL Draft Tight End Prospects

Over the last five NFL drafts on average fourteen tight ends were selected. This year may be more as the tight end draft class is strong and deep. Here are a list of tight ends selected based on having a minimum 15% team market share of receiving yards in any of their college seasons. The list is ranked by overall player evaluation starting with the top players. At the end is a spreadsheet of data on the tight ends with stats and combine data.

  1. T.J. Hockenson
    Hockenson participated in all seven combine events and scored within tight end target goals on six of the seven. Only one other tight end had that achievement (Foster Moreau). Hockenson had the most 30+ yard receptions (8) among all tight ends. Hockenson won the 2018 John Mackey Award given to college football’s most outstanding tight end.
  2. Jace Sternberger
    Sternberger had the highest receiving average yards (17.3) among tight end prospects and the most receiving touchdowns among all tight ends (10). Sternberger had the most 20+ yard receptions among all tight ends (21) and the eleventh most among all receivers. He hd eight red zone receptions and seven of them were touchdowns. Fifty six percent of his receptions were for 15+ yards. That is the highest percentage among tight ends on this list.
  3. Caleb Wilson
    Wilson had 60 receptions in 2018, the highest among FBS tight ends. His team market share of receiving yards was 34% which is the highest among all tight ends on this list by 8%. Wilson had 40 receptions of 10+ yards, the most by an FBS tight end by 7 receptions. He also was tied at fourth among all receivers for the most 60+ yard receptions (3). Wilson had the most receiving yards per game among tight ends. Sixty eight percent of his 60 receptions resulted in a first down. That was the most receptions and the fifth best conversion percentage on this list. Wilson has the highest career receiving yards (1,675) among all active tight ends.
  4. Irv Smith Jr.
    Irv Smith tied Caleb Wilson for the most 40+ yard receptions among tight ends (4). As reported by Pro Football Focus quarterbacks had a 157.7 passer rating when targeting Smith in 2018. Also reported that he hailed in 76% of his targeted passes. PFF recognized Irv Smith as the best overall receiver for the corner route and has three touchdowns on corners.
  5. Noah Fant
    Noah Fant was the top tight end in five of the seven combine workout events. As reported by PFF, Fant’s quarterback passer rating when targeted increased every year peaking at 122.2 in 2018.
  6. Josh Oliver
    Oliver had the second most receptions and receiving plays of 10+ yards among tight ends. Team co-captain, highly regarded by teammates, strong work ethic. One of only six tight ends that met combine workout target goals for tight ends in five or more of the seven events. Oliver was third among tight ends in the forty (4.63) and second in the bench press (22).
  7. Donald Parham
    Standing 6’8″ Parham dominated at the FCS level. He had 85 receptions, 13 touchdowns, averaged 146.6 yards per game and had a 41% team receiving yards market share.
  8. Zach Gentry
    At 6’8″ and 265 lbs Zach Gentry was the largest tight end at the combine. As reported by Pro Football Focus, quarterbacks had a 107.6 passer rating when Gentry was targeted. Seventy two percent of Gentry’s receptions made first down. That was the highest percentage among tight ends on this list.
  9. Keenen Brown
    Brown is the only draft prospect that had 2+ touchdowns for both receiving (5) and rushing (2) as well as 500+ receiving yards (577) and a 5+ yard rushing average (9.4). He was Pro Football Focus’s highest graded tight end and led all tight ends in missed tackles. He would have been their choice for the John Mackey Award given to the nation’s outstanding tight end.
  10. Kaden Smith
    Smith was one of three finalists for the 2018 John Mackey Award given to the nation’s outstanding tight end. He had the third best 3-cone drill (7.08) at the combine among tight ends. Kaden, at 6’5″ and 255 lbs, was the fourth largest tight end at the combine. As reported by Pro Football Focus, nearly half of Smith’s receiving snaps saw him lined up in the slot. On those plays, he generated 2.06 yards per route run which ranked 6th among the 51 FBS TEs with 100+ slot snaps this season.
  11. Dax Raymond
    Though not a lot of 3rd down receptions (19), Raymond has made 1st down on 90% of his 3rd down receptions over his three year college career. In 2018 nineteen of his 27 receptions resulted in a first down. He is a big physical receiver with good hands. Raymond had a good week at practice during the Senior Bowl and received many positive reports. Out of high school he served a two-year LDS Church Mission in Russia
  12. Tommy Sweeney
    Sweeney is third among all active tight ends in career receiving yards (1,281) and second among tight end draft prospects. Sweeney performed good at the combine and pro day. His Pro Day 3-cone (7.17) would have been 8th best among tight ends at the combine. NFL Draft Network notes Sweeney’s best trait is his hands – “Showcases soft, natural and reliable hands.” and “Terrific hands.
  13. Kahale Warring
    One of only six tight ends that met combine workout target goals for tight ends in five or more of the seven events. Among tight ends Warring was third in the vertical jump (36.5″) and broad jump (10’2″). He came in sixth among tight ends in the forty (4.67). In high school Warring was a multi-sport athlete who played only one year of football in his senior year. He is still raw but exhibits a strong work ethic and great athleticism.
  14. C.J. Conrad
    Conrad is one of only three tight end draft prospects that have career 1000+ receiving yards and 10+ receiving touchdowns. The other two are Noah Fant and Tommy Sweeney. Good hands and solid run blocker. Good work ethic.

The data used in the evaluation is Tight End Data

2019 NFL Draft Quarterback Prospects

Over the last five drafts there was on average twelve quarterbacks selected. Here are the top twelve quarterbacks ranked based on quarterback statistics and situational statistics.

Quarterbacks

  1. Kyler Murray
    First in 3rd down conversion percent, Big Play percent, passing yards per attempt, 20+ yard passing plays and total yards. Second in Quarterback Rating but first among draft prospects.
  2. Dwayne Haskins
    First in passing yards, 10+ yard passing plays and passing touchdowns
  3. Will Grier
    Second in passing yards per game
  4. Brett Rypien
    First in 3rd downs made and third in 3rd down conversion %
  5. Taylor Cornelius
    Third in 10+ yards passing plays and in Big Play %
  6. Marcus McMaryion
    Third in red zone rushing TD % for 7+ rushing touchdowns.
  7. Justice Hansen
    Tie for first in red zone passing TD % and second in total red zone TD %
  8. Ryan Finley
    First in rushing 3rd down conversion % and 2nd in total 3rd down conversion %
  9. Jake Browning
    Fourth in Big Play %
  10. Drew Lock
    In 2017 first in passing touchdowns
  11. Trace McSorley
    First in red zone touchdown percentage. First in career 4,000 yards passing 1,000 yards rushing (11,596 yards) in the FBS.
  12. Tyree Jackson
    Second in red zone rushing touchdown %

Here is a data file on which this raking is based. There is a sheet on the top twelve showing all statistics. There is another sheet on the top 26 with only situational statistics of third down, red zone and big play.

QB Statistics

2019 NFL Draft Running Back Prospects

Here are draft running back prospects that have made at least a 25% scrimmage yards team market share for one season in their college career. They are ranked based on an evaluation of their overall performance. Over the last five drafts on average 23 running backs were selected.

  1. Darrell Henderson
    Led all draft prospects in average yards per carry, rushing touchdowns and rushing yards per game. FBS active career leader in yards per attempt (8.2). One of two draft prospects to have 2000+ yards from scrimmage in 2018. In 2018 Forty five percent of his rushing attempts resulted in either a touchdown or a first down. This was the highest for draft eligible backs that averaged 66+ rushing yards per game. It was ten percent higher than the next closest prospect. Ten of his 22 touchdowns came from 40+ yards out.
  2. Trayveon Williams
    Led all draft prospects in rushing plays of 10+ yards. One of two draft prospects to have 2000+ yards from scrimmage in 2018. The other draft prospect to have 2000+ yards from scrimmage in 2018.
  3. David Montgomery
    Led the FBS in forced missed tackles for each of the last two seasons. In two seasons he has had over 1500 yards after contact.
  4. Devin Singletary
    In 2017 Singletary led the FBS in rushing plays of 10+ yards and rushing touchdowns (32). In 2018 Singletary had the second most rushing touchdowns and made a touchdown on 32% of his 57 red zone rushing attempts. Of the top five draft prospects for rushing touchdowns that red zone percentage was the best. The sixth guy, Benny Snell, just edges him with 33% but with six less total rushing touchdowns. Singletary has had 1000+ rushing yards and 10+ rushing touchdowns in each of his three seasons.
  5. Miles Sanders
    As reported by Pro Football Focus Sanders ranked inside the top 10 among backs in forced missed tackles (47), yards after contact (845) and runs resulting in a first down or touchdown (38) in 2018. A gym rat, Sanders was the only back to meet running back target goals in six of the combine events which included the best among backs in the three cone drill and third in the 20 yard shuttle. Sanders converted 80% of his 3rd down and 1-3 yards to go attempts on 15 attempts. That ratio was fifth among the top 100 players in rushing yards per game.
  6. Alexander Mattison
    Mattison is fifth among draft prospects in rushing touchdowns (17). Mattison is one of only six draft eligible backs to have rushed for 2000+ yards and have 30+ touchdowns over the last two seasons. Of the six backs he had the second highest receiving yards over that timefrane (457 yards). Mattison had the third highest yards from scrimmage among draft eligible backs in 2018 (1,588 yards).
  7. Myles Gaskin
    The current active FBS career leader in rushing yards. Since 2000 Gaskin is one of only two players to have rushed for 1000+ yards and have 10+ rushing touchdowns in each of four college seasons. The other was Cedric Benson drafted number 4 overall by the Bears in the 2005 draft. There have been 14 players that met that criteria 3 of their 4 years. There have been 7 players to meet that criteria in 3 seasons of a 3 season college career. That seven includes two this year – Devin Singletary and Benjamin Snell. Gaskin is reported to have good elusiveness and vision/football IQ.
  8. Karan Higdon
    Higdon is ninth among draft prospects in rushing yards per game. He is one of only eleven draft eligible backs that over the last two seasons have rushed for 2000+ yards and scored 20+ rushing touchdowns. Eight of Higdon’s eleven games in 2018 were 100+ yard rushing games. He was one of only three FBS draft prospects (Henderson, Williams) to have 8 or more 100+ yard rushing games in 2018. Higdon had 3.22 yards after contact per attempt.
  9. Wes Hills
    Hills was named MVP at the 2019 NFLPA Collegiate Bowl. Hills ranked 18th in the nation in career yards per carry among active players with 6.7 yards/carry. In 2018 eight of his twelve games were 100+ rushing yard games with three 200+ yard games. He had an additional one 100+ game for all purpose yards. Hills was a three year team captain. Hills was a combine snub.
  10. Benjamin Snell Jr.
    One of three draft prospects to have three years of 1000+ rushing yards and 10+ rushing touchdowns. Among draaft eligible backs that averaged 66+ rushing yards per game Snell had the most combined rushing first downs and touchdowns with 99. He averaged a first down or touchdown on 34% of his rushing attempts. Among draft prospects with 66+ rushing yards per game that was fourth best. Among the top six draft prospects for rushing touchdowns, Snell had the highest percent (33%) of his red zone attempts convert to touchdowns. Snell is one of only four draft eligible players that over the last two seasons have rushed for 2500+ yards and scored 30+ rushing touchdowns. Snell had 829 yards after contact in 2018.
  11. Travis Homer
    In 2018 Travis Homer had 4.05 yards after contact per attempt. He is one of 13 draft eligible backs that were in the top 100 players in yards from scrimmage per game for each of the last two seasons. Of those 13 backs Travis had the second highest average yards per play over the two years (6.45). At the combine among running backs Homer was fifth in the Forty (4.48), second in the vertical jump (39.5), tie for first in the broad jump (10’10”) and sixth in the 3-cone (7.07)
  12. Alex Barnes
    Alex Barnes had the highest team market share percentage (37%) of yards from scrimmage. He was fourth among draft prospects in rushing yards per game (113) and fifth in rushing plays of 20+ yards (12). Thirty percent of his rushing attempts made either first down or a touchdown which was eleventh best among draft prospects with 66+ rushing yards per game. At the combine Barnes participated in all seven events and made running back target goals in five events. That was second best for making target goals among backs. Among backs Barnes was first in the bench press (34), first in the 20 yard shuttle (second in the 3-cone (6.95), third in the vertical jump (38.5) and fifth in the broad jump (10’6″). In yards from scrimmage in 2018 Barnes had only one game that he averaged under 4.0 yards per play.
  13. Nico Evans
    Evans had the second highest team market share of scrimmage yards (35%). He was tie for the second most 30+ yard rushing plays (9) among draft prospects. Nico had a run of 30+ yards in 7 of his 10 games. Seven of his eight rushing touchdowns came from outside the red zone and five came from at least 40 yards out. Evans had the third highest rushing yards per game (133) among draft prospects and the eleventh best average yards per carry (6.53 yards). Evans was a combine snub. He did well at his pro day logging a mid-to-low 4.5s in the 40 while turning in a 37.5-inch vertical. He also had a 10-1 broad jump and recorded 22 reps on the bench press. Evans’ bench and broad jump would’ve ranked in the top 10 among running backs who participated in the combine while his vertical would’ve been the fourth-highest.
  14. Lexington Thomas
    Thomas is one of only eleven draft eligible backs that over the last two seasons have rushed for 2000+ yards and scored 20+ rushing touchdowns. Thomas can break the big run. Five of his twelve rushing touchdowns in 2018 came from 40+ yards out and in 2017 that number was 7 of his 17 touchdowns. He is one of 13 draft eligible backs that were in the top 100 players in yards from scrimmage per game for each of the last two seasons. Of those 13 backs Thomas had the third highest average yards per play over the two years (6.05). Thomas is one of only six running back draft prospects that over the last two seasons have had 2000+ rushing yards and 30+ total touchdowns. In 2917 Thomas was 12th in rushing touchdowns and sixth in rushing plays of 40+ yards.
  15. A.J. Ouellette
    Ouellette is fourth among draft prospects in rushing plays of 30+ yards (8). In 2018 32 percent of his rushing attempts resulted in either a touchdown or a first down. This was the eighth best for draft eligible backs that averaged 66+ rushing yards per game. He is one of just 13 draft eligible backs that were in the top 100 players in yards from scrimmage per game for each of the last two seasons. Of those 13 backs Ouellette had the fourth highest average yards per play over the two years (6.0). He ranked ninth in total touchdowns (14) in 2018 among draft eligible running backs. Ouelette is a combine snub. Here are A.J. Ouelette ‘s athletic tests from last year and how they would compare to this year’s combine running backs – 4.46s forty (3rd), 30 reps bench press (2nd), 37 in. vertical jump (4th) and 4.06 shuttle (1st).
  16. Qadree Ollison
    Ollison is one of only eight draft eligible running backs to have rushed for 1000+ yards and 10+ rushing touchdowns in at least each of two seasons. In 2018 33.5% of his rushing attempts resulted in either a touchdown or a first down. This was the sixth highest for draft eligible backs that averaged 66+ rushing yards per game. In 2018 Ollison was eighth in rushing plays of 20+ yards (15). Ollison converted 78% of his rushing attempts on 3rd down and 1-3 yards to go. That was sixth best among the top 100 players in rushing yards per game.
  17. Jalin Moore
    Moore is one of only eight draft eligible running backs to have rushed for 1000+ yards and 10+ rushing touchdowns in at each of at least two seasons. He is the only active FBS back to have rushed for 230+ yards in four or more career games. Moore was recuperating from injury during the combine and only participated in the bench press where he came in second among running backs (27 reps). Jalin Moore made Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks List” each of the last two years and was number 11 in 2018. He was ninth on Chase Goodbread’s “18 for ’18: College football’s most freakish athletes”. Moore’s prior numbers in the forty (4.37s) and the broad jump (11’1″) would top this year’s combine leaders at running back.
  18. Ty Johnson
    In 2018 Ty Johnson averaged the second best rushing yards per carry among draft prospects. His career 7.6 yards per carry is sixth in the nation and third in the FBS among active players. In 2016 he led all FBS running backs in average yards per carry with 9.13 yards and he was second in rushing plays of 40+ yards (9). Johnson has had a kickoff return for a touchdown each of the last two seasons.
  19. Patrick Laird
    Patrick laird is one of 13 draft eligible backs that were in the top 100 players in yards from scrimmage per game for each of the last two seasons. He has had over 25% team market share yards from scrimmage each of the last two seasons. Patrick was ranked by Pro Football Focus as the sixth most elusive returning Pac-12 running back going into the 2018 season. Laird was one of ten finalists for the 2018 Senior Class Award given to an FBS senior that has notable achievements in four areas of excellence: community, classroom, character and competition.
  20. Alec Ingold
    Ingold is the one prospect that did not achieve the 25% market share. He is here as a fullback candidate for his blocking skills. Alec Ingold is a team captain and received the 2018 team Offensive Impact Player of the Year Award. In 2018 he had 26 rushing attempts, averaged 5.5 yds/attempt and had 6 rushing touchdowns. That amounts to a score every 4.3 times he touched the ball. He had another receiving touchdown and averaged 18.6 yards for his five receptions. He had seven 3rd down rushing attempts of 1-6 yards to go and he made six of them. His one 4th down attempt he got 5 yards and the 1st down. Wisconsin has always valued their fullbacks and their versatility. Ingold helped block for running back Jonathan Taylor who was the only back to have over 2,000 yards rushing in 2018.
  21. Wesley Fields
    2018 Sun Belt Second Team and Georgia Southern University Football Offensive Player of the Year. Wesley was one of twenty candidates for the 2018 Senior Class Award.

  22. Austin Walter
    Austin Walter is one of only two draft prospects that have both 500+ rushing yards and 500+ receiving yards in a season. Walter also returns kickoffs. He has had eight games in 2018 of 100+ all purpose yards and three of 200+ yards.

2019 NFL Draft Wide Receiver Prospects

Here are draft wide receiver prospects that have made at least a 30% receiving yards team market share for one season in their college career. They are ranked based on an evaluation of their overall performance. Based on data from nfldraftscout.com there were on average 33 wide receivers chosen each year in the NFL draft over the last five years.

  1. N’Keal Harry
    Among active career leaders Harry is fourth in receptions per game (5.76), sixth in receiving yards per game (78.1) and ninth in receiving yards (2,889). “Glue hands”, hands catcher, makes contested catches and effective in yards after the catch.
  2. A.J. Brown
    Brown is number three among active FBS career leaders in receiving yards per game (82.9) and fourth in career receiving yards (2,984). His 3.92 long receiving plays (10+ yards) per game and 40% per target were among the tops in the league. Brown had a 79.8% catch rate in 2017 and a 72% rate in 2018.
  3. Andy Isabella
    Tie for the most receiving plays of 40+, 50+ and 60+ yards and most 2018 receptions (102) in FBS among draft prospects. One of only three active FBS players to have 10+ receiving touchdowns in two seasons. Had the highest catch percentage (67.6%) among the top ten most targeted receivers. In 2018 became one of only three receivers since 2000 to have 300+ receiving yards on 10 or less receptions in a game. Isabella participated in all combine events and scored above wide receiver threshold targets in all. He was one of three wide receivers to do so. Target yards added measures a receiver’s yards pr target minus the team’s passing yards per attempt. Isabella had the fourth best in the draft class at 5.85 target yards added.
  4. John Ursua
    Most receiving touchdowns; had at least one TD in 10 of his 13 games and multiple touchdowns in five games. Ursua had 3.77 receptions of 10+ yards per game which was eighth among players with a minimum 29 receptions of 10+ yards. Among the top ten receivers with the most targets per game, Ursua had the fourth best catch rate (58.6%). In 2017 among draft eligible receivers Ursua had the fourth highest yards per route run (3.49) and his drop rate (4.1%) was in the top 20%.
  5. Antoine Wesley
    The 6’4″ Wesley had a 38.5″ vertical at the combine and caught 17 of 33 contested catches. He was second in the FBS in receiving yards per game (117.5) and first in 30+ yard receiving plays. Wesley was seventh in target yards added with 4.54. Wesley was sixth in this group of receivers in percent of receptions that went for 25+ yards (20%).
  6. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
    Fifth among active FBS career leaders for career receiving touchdowns (28). His 14 touchdowns in 2018 was tie for third in the FBS. A red-zone threat Arcega-Whiteside had 9 red zone receptions out of 13 go for touchdowns. He had 45% of his targets go for 10+ yard receptions which was one of the tops in this group. Forty nine percent of his receptions were for 15+ yards which was third best in this group of receivers.
  7. KeeSean Johnson
    One of only four active players to have two seasons of 1,000+ receiving yards and 70+ receptions. Number one in active FBS leaders in career receptions (275) and number two in FBS career receiving yards (3,463). First in FBS in receptions of 20+ yards in 2018. Second in this group of receivers in 3rd down reception percentage that made first down (89%).
  8. Anthony Johnson
    Highest career receiving yards per game in FBS (94.7 yards). One of only two active FBS players to average 16+ yards per reception and 50+ receptions for two seasons. One of only three active FBS players to have 10+ receiving touchdowns in two seasons. One of only nine draft prospects to have 1000+ receiving yards in two seasons.
  9. Hakeem Butler
    In the group Butler had the highest percent of his receptions go for 15+ yards (55%) and 25+ yards (33%). He has the highest career yards per catch in the FBS (19.5 yards). Forty One percent of his targets went for receptions of 10+ yards. Hakeem Butler had a 5.12 target yards added which was sixth best in the draft class.
  10. Dillon Mitchell
    Dillon was one of only eight draft propects that had 1000+ receiving yards and 10+ receiving touchdowns in 2018. In this group of 32 receivers Mitchell was fifth in % of 3rd down receptions that made first down (85%) and had the highest number of 3rd down conversions among the top five. He was top ten in the group in percent of plays for red zone touchdowns, % for 15+ yards and % for total first downs.
  11. Papi White
    Papi is ranked 12th among active FBS leaders in career yards per catch (16.3). He is sixth among this group of 32 receivers in percent of 2018 plays that were 15+ yards and percent of first downs and seventh on percent of plays for 25+ yards.
  12. Stanley Morgan Jr.
    In this group Morgan had the fifth highest percentage of plays go for 25+ yards (21%). He ranks 11th in the FBS for career receiving yards (2,747 yards). Morgan participated in all combine events and scored above wide receiver threshold targets in all. He was one of three wide receivers to do so.
  13. Diontae Johnson
    Fourth in FBS active career leaders for combined kickoff/punt returns for touchdowns (4). Seventh in active career all purpose yards (4,494) and ninth in active career yards per catch (16.6 yards).
  14. Preston Williams
    Every one of his nine red zone receptions was a touchdown. The only other in the group with 100% touchdowns only had two receptions. Williams also was third in receiving touchdowns in the nation.
  15. Travis Fulgham
    One of only four draft prospects that had 1000+ yards receiving and averaged 17+ yards per reception in 2018. In this group he had the highest percent of receptions go for a first down (76%).
  16. Greg Dortch
    Had the 4th highest conversion % (87%) on the 4th most 3rd down receptions (23) in this group. None had a higher % with more 3rd down receptions. First in FBS career receptions per game among active players (7.1 receptions).
  17. Trevon Brown
    One of nine active players to have two 1,000+ receiving yard seasons. Fifth in FBS career receiving yards (2,952) among active players. Brown is tenth on this list in percent of receptions of 25+ yards (18.9%) and eighth in percent for first down (66%). He averaged four receptions of 10+ yards per game which was sixth best for receivers with 29+ receptions of 10+ yards. In 2017 his 2.71 yards per route run was in the top 20% of draft eligible players that year.
  18. Lil’Jordon Humphrey
    Humphrey had the most 3rd down receptions (31) on this list and the sixth best conversion rate on those (80.7%). He had the fifth highest percentage (43%) of receptions for 15+ yards on this list with no one having a higher percentage with more receptions.
  19. Scott Miller
    Fifth in FBS career receptions among active players (215). Miller is seventh in this list in percent of receptions that made first down (67.6%) and no one with a higher percentage had more receptions. In 2017 Miller was in the top third of draft eligible receivers in catch rate (68.5%) in the slot and had only a 7.4% slot receiver drop rate. Among the top 100 players for 10+ yards receiving plays Miller is 17th in 10+ yard receiving plays per game (3.73). Thirty eight percent were for a big play (15+ yards). He averaged 3.73 receptions of 10+ yards per game which was tenth best among draft prospects. In 2018 six of his eleven games were for 100+ yards and only one averaged less than 10 yards per reception. Miller is fast. Coming out of high school he earned offers to run track at Big Ten schools such as Michigan, Illinois, and Iowa. He has reliable hands and is a tough player not afraid of going over the middle.
  20. Olamide Zaccheaus
    Only active FBS player to have two seasons of 80+ receptions. Olamide had a 71.5% catch rate in 2018. Olamide is one of 20 players since 2000 to have a career 2000+ receiving yards and 450+ rushing yards. He is one of only two active players to accomplish this. A former running back in high school, Olamide is a receiver and back hybrid. He was used a lot in backfield passes and slants, but could also take the top off the defense with his speed. Get him the ball and he excels in yards after the catch. In week three against Ohio Olamide had nine catches on ten targets for 247 yards and two touchdowns. His receiving yards included 176 yards after the catch. Fifth in receptions in FBS.
  21. Tyre Brady
    Sixth in FBS career receptions per game among active players (5.54 receptions). In 2017 Brady’s 2.58 yards per route run was in the top 20% of draft eligible wide receivers that year. Brady has achieved over a 30% team market share receiving yards each of the last two years. Brady is one of only nine draft prospects that over the last two seasons had 1900+ receiving yards and 17+ receiving touchdowns.
  22. Cody Thompson
    Second among active FBS career leaders in yards per catch (18.3) and third in career receiving touchdowns (30) and career receiving yards (3,312). Third on this list for percent of receptions for first down (72.9%), eighth for percent for 15+ yards (39.6%) and third for percent of red zone receptions for touchdowns (80%). Thompson had outstanding combine numbers in the three cone (6.87) and the 20 yard shuttle (4.03) which was tie for first among wide receivers.
  23. Damion Willis
    On this list Willis was third in percent of receptions that went 25+ yards (25%). In 2017 he had a 0% drop rate and a 45.5% catch rate on 20+ yard passes. The 6’3″ 204 lb receiver ran a 4.48 forty at his pro day and had a 7.00 three cone drill.
  24. Alex Wesley
    Second player in program history with two 1,000 yards receiving seasons. In 2018 Wesley had six 100 yard receiving games.Wesley has averaged 18.4 yards per catch over the last two seasons. At the 2018 NCAA Track and Field championships, Wesley finished 14th in the country in the 400 meter with a time of 45.91s.
  25. Malcolm Williams
    Williams had over 30% receiving yards team market share for each of the last two years. In 2017 he had a catch rate of 56.3% on passes of 20+ yards which was 12th among draft eligible players that year.
  26. Penny Hart
    One of only four active players to have two seasons of 1,000+ receiving yards and 70+ receptions. Sixth in FBS career receiving yards (2,950) and the second highest junior.
  27. Terren Encalade
    In 2017 Encalade’s 2.70 yards per route run was in the top 20% of the draft eligible receivers that year. For the last three years Encalade is a three year starter and did not miss a game over that timeframe. Encalade caught a pass in 35 of his last 37 games over that three year period. In 2018 he converted 10 of his 11 third down receptions.
  28. Jamarius Way
    Big receiver, strong work ethic, all-effort type, solid strong hands catcher. Finished the year with a game of 6-141-3 touchdowns.
  29. Keelan Doss
    Among active career leaders Doss has the most career receptions in NCAA (321) and highest career receptions per game (7.3) in the FBS/FCS. He is a two-time FCS consensus All-American. Strong ball skills, good at contested catches, good blocker.
  30. Steven Sims
    Sixth in FBS career receptions among active players (214). Sims hit 30% receiving yards team market share both his sophomore and junior years and was over 42% team market share of receiving touchdowns both years. Sims is fast and got open often when covered 1-on-1.
  31. Jovon Durante
    Durante had 513 yards after the catch in 2018. He ran a 4.55 forty and a 7.0 three cone drill at the combine.
  32. Greg Campbell Jr.
    Finished his UTSA career with a career best 11 receptions and 186 yards which made the UTSA single game record for receiving yards and receptions.

The Best Defensive Positions Draft Prospects Per Statistic

Following the post on the Offensive Skills positions today I look at the top defensive players by position per statistics. These top players were chosen from a group that met a minimum threshold for high production. The high production did not have to be in this last season as all college years were considered.  The data is included at the end of the post.

Edge Rusher

The best players presented for edge rusher and defensive tackles are the top in the specified statistic among players that met a market share minimum of 6% solo tackles, 15% tackles for loss and 25% sacks.

Solo Tackle Market Share – Josh Allen had an 11.5% solo tackle market share with his 56 solo tackles. For an edge rusher that also had a 44.7% sack market share the solo tackle market share is fantastic.  The top five edge rushers in the NFL averaged only a 7% solo tackle market share in their last year of college.

Tackle for Loss Market Share – Oshane Ximines had a 27.7% tackle for loss market share. He averaged 1.54 TFL per game which was 11th in the FBS and sixth among defensive linemen.

Sacks Market Share – Oshane Ximines had a 52.3% sacks market share. He average 1 sack per game which was fifth in the FBS. He is second among active FBS players in career sacks with 33.

Defensive Tackle

Solo Tackle Market Share – Ed Oliver had an 8.4% solo tackle market share. Oliver has the second most career solo tackles among active defensive linemen with 123.

Tackle for Loss Market Share – Cortez Broughton had a 22.3% TFL market share. His 18.5 TFLs was fourth among defensive linemen draft prospects.

Sacks Market Share –Daniel Wise had a 25% sacks market share with five sacks. All five of Wise’s sacks were solo, which tied for tenth among all NCAA defensive tackles.

Linebacker

The top linebackers are chosen from a group that met a minimum criteria of 11.5% solo tackle market share. Edge Rushers such as Josh Allen are not included.

Solo Tackle Market Share – Joe Dineen had a 19.3% solo tackle market share. He led the nation with 109 solo tackles. Among active players he leads all divisions of NCAA football with 281 career solo tackles.

Tackle for Loss Market Share – E.J. Ejiya has a 26.3% TFL market share. His 25 TFLs and 1.92 TFL per game were tops among linebackers. his 40.5 career TFLs is fifth among active linebackers.

Sacks Market Share – A.J. Hotchkins has a 35% sacks market share. Hotchkins was fifth among linebacker draft prospects in sacks per game with 0.58.

Interceptions Market Share – Tre Watson has a 27.8% interception market share. His five interceptions was second among all linebackers.

Passes Defended Market Share – Bryton Barr has a 12.5% passes defended market share. Barr is finishing his seventh and final year of collegiate eligibility. He had missed the majority of 2013 and all of 2014 and 2015 due to injury. Barr He has made Phil Steele’s All-Independent First Team each of the last two seasons.

Cornerback

Defensive Backs were chosen from a group that met a minimum market share criteria of 6% solo tackles, 25% interceptions and 15% passes defended.

Solo Tackle Market Share – Nate Brooks has a 10.2% solo tackle market share. A physical player that hits hard. Nate also had a third of team interceptions (6) and a fifth of the passes defended (10).

Interception Market Share – Ryan Pulley has a 60% interception market share with his three interceptions. Pulley made the Pro Football Focus Week 8 Team of the Week  and was ranked highest among all cornerbacks that week. The quarterback had a 0.0 passer rating when Pulley was targeted.

Pass defended Market Share – Julian Love has a 38.5% passes broken up market share from his 2017 season. His 20 passes broken up was second in the nation that year.

Safety

Solo Tackle Market Share – Nasir Adderley has a 12.1% solo tackle market share and 48 solo tackles his senior year. Adderley is a four year starter and has excelled at tackling his entire collegiate career. As a freshman he started all 11 games and led all defensive backs and ranked third on the team with 51 tackles (37 solo). The next year he ranked third on the team in tackles with 49 and ranked first among defensive backs. His junior year ranked second on the team in total tackles with 78 and had the most solo tackles on the team (42).

Interception Market Share – Lukas Denis has a 38.9% interception market share on seven interceptions in his 2017 season. It was tie for second in the FBS.

Passes Defended Market Share – Juan Thornhill had a 31.6% passes broken up market share with 12 from his 2017 season. Look for Thornhill to do well in the combine vertical and broad jumps. At a practice session last year at Virginia he had a 40½-inch vertical leap and an 11-foot broad jump.

The data and groups can be downloaded here – prospects by production.

The Best Skills Positions Draft Prospects Per Statistic

Today we look at which draft prospects were the best per statistic among the offensive skill positions.

Receivers

Receiving TDsJohn Ursua (Hawaii) had 16 receiving touchdowns in 2018, the most in the FBS. At 5’10 inches and 175 lbs you would not think of him as  a red zone target. But on 18 red zone receptions he had 10 touchdowns and six first downs. Not only a touchdown maker but Ursua also is 3rd in 50+ yard pass plays (6) and sixth in 10+ yard pass plays (49).

Receiving Average Yards – Hakeem Butler (Iowa State) has 22 yards per reception which is third in the nation. With that average you know he has to excel in long passing plays. Butler was tie for second in the FBS for receptions of 20+ and 30+ yards. He was tie for third in receptions of 40+ and 50+ yards.

Market Share receiving yards – Andy Isabella (UMass) has a 47.5% team market share of receiving yards. He actually excelled also in receptions market share (38.8%) and touchdown market share (48.2%). Those are amazing percentages.  In this article JJ Zachariason sampled 26 stud NFL receivers’ final college year market share numbers. The NFL stud sample averaged 36% receiving yards, 31.8% receptions and 43.1% touchdowns.

Tight Ends

Receiving Touchdowns – Donald Parham (Stetson) had 13 receiving touchdowns. That topped the best FBS tight end by three touchdowns. Parham had a 46% team market share of receiving touchdowns. Parham is 6’8″ and 240 lbs, a former basketball player and has a 36 inch vertical jump.

Receiving Average Yards – Jace Sternberger (Texas A&M) averaged 17.3 yards per reception. That was second best among FBS tight ends. He had the most 20+ yard receiving plays (21) among tight ends and it was 11th most among all receivers.

Market Share receiving yards – Donald Parham (Stetson) had 41.2% team market share of receiving yards. The next high production tight end was 7.4% less.

Running Backs

Touchdowns from Scrimmage – Devin Singletary (FAU) had 33 touchdowns in 2017 for a 45% market share and the most touchdowns from scrimmage by eight. His 22 touchdowns in 2018 was third most. In 2017, 35% of his 75 red zone rushing attempts scored a touchdown. For 2018 that percentage only dipped to 32% on 57 attempts.

Rushing Average – Darrell Henderson (Memphis) averaged 8.92 yards per carry in 2018 (2nd best) and 8.88 in 2017 (2nd best among backs). Over the last two seasons he played in 25 games, started 23, and has averaged less than 4.69 yards per carry in only two games. He was also second among backs in average yards from scrimmage.

Market share yards from scrimmage – Alex Barnes (Kansas State) had a 37.4% team market share of yards from scrimmage. Barnes is a big strong athletic bruiser of a back. He is 6’1″ and 225 lbs. Coming out of high school he bench pressed 225 lbs for 31 reps. That would have been tops among backs at the 2018 combine. He also ran 4.40 to 4.48 forty yard dash and had a 37 inch vertical jump. Barnes averaged 129 yards per game from scrimmage which was tenth in the nation.  He converted 71% of his 24 rushing attempts of 3rd down and 1-6 yards to go.

Quarterbacks

3rd Down % – Kyler Murray -50% of his 3rd down attempts made 1st down.

Big Play % – Kyler Murray – 27.9% of his plays result in a big play.

Passing Yards per Attempt – Kyler Murray  averaged 11.6 yards per attempt.

Passer Rating – Kyler Murray has a 199.4 passer rating.

Rushing average – Kyler Murray averaged 7.15 yards per rushing attempt.

Passing Tds Dwayne Haskins averaged 3.57 passing TDs  per game

TD to Int Ratio – Dwayne Haskins has a 6.25 touchdown to interception ratio.

Rushing yards David Pindell averaged 94.9 rushing yards per game.

Red Zone TD % Trace McSorley – 39.1% of his red zone attempts were a TD.

Completion % Gardner Minshew completed 70.7% of his passing attempts.

Passing Yards – Gardner Minshew averaged 367 passing yards per game.

Rushing TDs Eric Dungey averaged 1.15 rushing TDs per game.

A nice draft value chart for the 2019 NFL Draft

Here is a nice draft value chart by Renee Bugner.

The Patriots really know how to work in the system to maximize their draft value. They have a league high six selections on day 1 and 2.

For a playoff team the Colts did well also. On top of that they got two All Pro players in last year’s draft with Quenton Nelson and Darius Leonard.

The Cowboys are pretty low on the value chart. However the first round pick they gave up for Amari Cooper appears to have been worth it. In just nine games with the Cowboys he had his career best yards per game, receptions per game and his longest reception of 90 yards. His six touchdowns was just one short of his career best full season at Oakland.

The Bears are the lowest having given up picks for linebacker Khalil Mack and to move up and select receiver Anthony Miller in the 2018 draft. On the Mack trade the Bears got a All Pro linebacker in his first year on the team and gave up roughly two first round picks spread over 2019 and 2020.  Their 2019 pick is number 24th and their 2020 is likely to be towards the bottom round one.

To select Anthony Miller with the 51st pick the Bears gave up a 2018 fourth round pick and a 2019 second round pick. Miller’s seven receiving touchdowns was the second most by a rookie receiver in 2018 and tied for thirteenth among all wide receivers.

The Saints have the second least draft capital. They also traded much away to move up and select Marcus Davenport (2019 1st round), get Teddy Bridgewater (2019 3rd round) and Eli Apple (2019 4th round).  The Saints were possibly one play away from making the Super Bowl. The Saints trades to move up and select Davenport are questionable. However Davenport has played well in the limited amount of play he had which was 40% of the defensive snap counts. For a fourth round pick Apple has also played well. They almost made the Super Bowl so I won’t question their personnel decisions. A side note, for an interesting read on some of the criteria the Saints used to select Davenport see this article.

Going by the Chase Stuart value chart the Raiders have a dominating amount of draft capital. However looking at what they gave up to get there I question the choices they made. They gave up two top five draft picks that have performed and have netted draft picks that are in the bottom of the first round and possibly the same next year. But if they choose wisely only time will tell.