2018 NFL Top Running Backs

Today I take a look at who are the top running backs going into the 2018 season. Following the approach taken on my posts on the top receivers, I will again draw the line at 16.6% of the current backs would be the top ones. That gives a nice rough 1 in 6 backs would be in the top.  Currently there are 140 veteran running backs on NFL rosters. In addition there are 52 rookies on NFL rosters. Of the veterans the 16% would mean 23 top backs.

To examine the prospects I took the performance statistics for the last three seasons. That goes back far enough so it is not overly influenced by a peak last season but still maintains a recent sample. Two areas will be examined – the rushing statistics and the receiving statistics. The rushing statistics I used are

  • Percent of games that were 100+ yard rushing games
  • Percent of first downs achieved to total rush attempts
  • Games to touchdowns ratio
  • Percent of Fumbles to rushing attempts
  • Percent of Big Plays to rushing attempts. A big play is a rush of 10+ yards.
  • Percent of Stuffs to rushing attempts. A stuff is a rushing attempt that is held to zero or negative gain.
  • Rushing Yards per game
  • Rushing Yards per attempt
  • Long rushing play.
  • Yards per Stuff.

More teams now use the pass play to a running back as a designed play or a relief valve under pressure. I have weighted the pass play at roughly a third less important than the rushing play.  For the pass evaluation I used the same criteria used in the wide receiver evaluations. They are

  • Yards after the Catch (YAC) per reception
  • Percent of 100+ receiving games to total games
  • Percent of first down receptions
  • Catch percentage or Receptions to Targets
  • Yards per target
  • Games to receiving touchdowns ratio
  • Yards per reception
  • Drops and Fumbles to targets
  • Receiving Yards per game
  • Percent of Big Plays to Receptions. A big play is a reception of 25+ yards.

With receptions the data can be skewed on a small sample size to look good. To avoid this I limited credit on receiving data for running backs that averaged less than an arbitrary number of receptions per game, 1.6 to be precise. I placed a similar limit of the Percent of Big Plays when using a low number of receptions.

Here are the results of the top 23 running backs going into the 2018 season.

AFC East

AFC East Running Backs
AFC East Running Backs

LeSean McCoy, of the Bills, has the sixth best 100+ yard games percentage of active NFL backs with 32.6% of his games going 100+ over the last three seasons.  His yards per game of 76.7 yards is ranked seventh.

Bilal Powell, of the Jets, had a 75 yard touchdown run in 2017, good for 2nd longest touchdown run in Jets franchise history. It was tie for sixth best long run among current NFL players over the last three seasons.

Isaiah Crowell, of the Jets, had an 85 yard touchdown run against the Ravens in 2016. That was the 2nd longest in Browns history and ranked tied for third longest over the last three seasons for current NFL players. Of current players no one had a lower fumble percentage (0.51%) with more attempts (589) over the last three seasons.

Frank Gore, of the Dolphins, is working out in the off-season with his incredible work ethic. It has allowed him to achieve 12 straight seasons since his rookie season of a minimum 1,200 yards from scrimmage each year. That, his drive and his toughness have helped Frank to play 112 consecutive games. Frank has averaged 61.5 rushing yards per game over the last three seasons. That is 15th best among active running backs.

AFC North

AFC North Running Backs
AFC North Running Backs

Giovani Bernard, of the Bengals, has a 28.5 receiving yards per game over the last three seasons. That is ranked 10th among current NFL players. In 2017 Bernard had 458 rushing yards with an average of 4.4 yards per carry. Only ten running backs had more yards with a better average. Bernard is a well rounded back. He also had 389 receiving yards with an average of 9.0 yards per reception. Only four other backs had more yards with a better average.

Le’Veon Bell, of the Steelers, has the 2nd most receiving yards per game (42.6 yards) over the last three seasons among current NFL players. He has the most receptions per game (5.58) in that time-frame for current players. As for rushing he is ranked second in 100+ games/game with 39.4% of his games going 100+ yards. This among active NFL players. Bell is also second among active NFL backs in rushing yards per game averaging 94.4 yards/game over the last three seasons.

AFC South

AFC South Running Backs
AFC South Running Backs

Lamar Miler, of the Texans, has had 4 fumbles on 700 attempts over the last three seasons. No current player has a better fumble rate with that many carries. Miller had an 85 yard rushing touchdown in 2015 which was tied for third among active NFL backs over the last three seasons. That run was second in Miami franchise records for long rushing plays. Lamar also owns first in Miami records for the longest rushing play of 97 yards set in 2014.

Leonard Fournette, of the Jaguars, had five 100+ yard rushing games in his rookie season. He had 38.5% of his games were 100+ yard rushing games. That was ranked 4th among current NFL running backs for over the last three seasons. His 80 yards per game was ranked fifth among current backs over the last three seasons. His 90 yard touchdown run against the Steelers is the longest run among active running backs over the last three seasons. Fournette had 9 rushing touchdowns in 13 games for a 1.44 games to touchdown ratio. That ranks third among active running backs averaged over the last three seasons.

Dion Lewis, of the Titans, has a 26.3% first down conversion rate on rushing attempts over the last three seasons. That ranks at seventh among active backs with a minimum 10 carries. Lewis’s 13% big rushing plays (10+ yards) to attempts ranks eight among active backs with minimum 100 carries over the past three seasons.

AFC West

AFC West Running Backs
AFC West Running Backs

Kareem Hunt, of the Chiefs, has six 100+ yard rushing games in his rookie season. This was good for a 37.5% ratio of 100+ games per game. It ranked fifth among active NFL players as  averaged over the last three seasons. Kareen had 3 receiving touchdowns which earned a games to receiving touchdown ratio of 5.33. That was tenth best among active backs over three seasons. His receiving yards per game of 28.4 is ranked eleventh of a three season average.

Melvin Gordon, of the Chargers, has a three year average yards per game of 63.8 yards which is ranked 13th among active running backs. His 87 yard rushing touchdown in 2017 is second longest among active running backs over three seasons.

NFC East

NFC East Running Backs
NFC East Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott, of the Cowboys, has led the NFL over the span of his two year career in yards per game with 108.7 yards per game. He leads active running backs in 100+ rushing games per game with 48% of his games being 100+ yards. His two year games to touchdown ratio of 1.14 leads all active running backs averaged over the last three seasons.

Chris Thompson, of the Redskins, has a three season games to receiving touchdown ratio of 4.88. That ranks seventh among active NFL running backs. Thompson’s 510 receiving yards in 2017 ranks sixth among active NFL running backs. Thompson’s average of 5.2 yards per rushing attempt over the last three seasons ranks seventh among active NFL running backs with minimum 40 attempts.

NFC North

NFC North Running Backs
NFC North Running Backs

Jordan Howard, of da Bears, has twelve 100+ rushing games in his two year career for 38.7% of his games. This ranks third among active NFL running backs over a three year period.  His 78.5 yards per game ranks sixth over a three year period. Howard has had two fumbles in 528 rushing attempts. Among active running backs over the last three seasons he has the least fumbles for backs with over 400 attempts.

Ty Montgomery, of the Packers, converted from a wide receiver to a running back in his 2nd year in 2016. In his 1st year as running back Ty had a banner year with 457 rushing yards, a 5.9 yard average, 3 rushing touchdowns, a 61 yard long play, 12 big plays of 10+ yards, one 100+ rushing game and a 26% 1st down conversion rate. Ty is moving from “winging it” to understanding techniques and reading gaps and defensive fronts. In 2017 Ty was injured and played in only 8 games.

Latavius Murray, of the Vikings, has a combined 3 season 1.77 game to rushing touchdown ratio which is 8th best among active running backs. Murray ran a 4.38 forty at his pro-day in 2013. That would have been 3rd best among running backs at the combine. Murray was ranked as the third best running back in pass protection during 2016.

NFC South

NFC South Running Backs
NFC South Running Backs

Devonta Freeman, of the Falcons, has eight 100+ rushing games over the last three seasons. That is the tenth best 100+ games to game ratio among active backs.  His games to rushing touchdown ratio of 1.55 is fifth best. Freeman’s yards per game of 66.7 yards is ninth best. Freeman’s 75 yard touchdown run in 2016 against the Saints is tie for sixth longest over the last three seasons among active backs. Freeman’s 30 receiving yards per game is eighth best among active backs.

C.J. Anderson, of the Panthers, while not excelling in any specific metric, he performed good on all rushing metrics and decent on the passing ones. Anderson had a good 2017 season breaking 1,000 rushing yards and 1,200 yards from scrimmage. I will leave Anderson with this highlights of his 2017 season – NFL.com videos _ Anderson 2017 highlights.

Christian McCaffrey, of the Panthers, had a receiving yards per game of 40.7 yards which was ranked fourth among active backs over the last three seasons. His 5 receiving touchdowns in 2017 made a games to touchdown ratio of 3.2. That was tie for first among active running backs over the last three seasons. His 45% receiving first down conversion rate was third for active backs with over 100 targets over the past three seasons. His rushing numbers are not as impressive but in his rookie season on 177 attempts he did have a long of 40 yards, 8 big plays (10+ yards),  two rushing touchdowns, an average of 3.7 yards and only one fumble.

Mark Ingram, of the Saints, has 18% of his games being 100+ rushing yards. That is ranked ninth among active backs over the last three seasons. His 1.83 games to rushing touchdown ration is tenth. With 601 rushing attempts over the last three seasons, Ingram has the lowest stuff per attempt ratio (7.15%) for any active back with over 300 attempts. His 66.7 rushing yards per game is ninth best. Ingram’s 4.9 yards per attempt ranks tied for 9th among active backs with minimum 40 attempts. Ingram’s 2016 touchdown run of 75 yards against the 49ers is ranked tied for sixth among active backs over the last three seasons. Ingram has had a long rushing play of 70+ yards in each of his last three seasons.

Looking at all active running backs average over the last three seasons, Alvin Kamara, of the Saints, in his rookie season has a rushing first down conversion percentage of 33% which is ranked third. His rushing big play (10+ yards) per attempt ratio of 22.5% is ranked fourth. On his 120 rushing attempts Kamara’s 6.67% stuffs per attempt is ranked fifth lowest among backs with a minimum 20 attempts. Kamara’s 6.07 yards per rushing attempt is ranked fourth. Besides being a top rusher  Kamara’s receiving skills are also tops. Among active backs he had the most receiving yards (826 yards) in 2017 and the second most over the last three seasons. His receiving game per touchdown ratio of 3.2 games was tied with McCaffrey for first. His 51.6 receiving yards per game is ranked first. His receiving big play (25+ yards) per reception ratio of 8.6% is ranked ninth.

NFC West

NFC West Running Backs
NFC West Running Backs

Even though David Johnson, of the Cardinals, missed all but one game in 2017 due to a dislocated wrist he still makes the top backs list based on his three season performance.  Johnson’s 1.38 games to touchdowns ratio is ranked second. His 54% receiving first down conversion rate on his 122 receptions leads all active backs with a minimum 20 receptions. Johnson’s 4.13 games to touchdown ratio is ranked fifth.  His 11.5 yards per reception ratio is ranked fifth among active backs with a minimum 20 receptions. His 42.5 receiving yards per game ranks third.

Todd Gurley, of the Rams, averages 29.6 receiving yards per game which ranks ninth among active backs. His 10.16% big plays to receptions ratio ranks seventh. One fourth of his games are 100+ rushing yard games which ranks seventh. His 1.52 games per rushing touchdown ratio ranks fourth. Gurley’s 74.9 rushing yards per game ranks eighth.

Data Backup

I have included the data sheet I used in evaluation for those that may be interested. One sheet has the player’s total list of score summaries. The top 23 players are highlighted by yellow in column B. Two other sheets has three seasons of data on the players followed by columns of calculations for evaluation criteria.  One is for rushing data and the other for receiving data. At the top is a line showing the average value for the evaluation criteria. Each player has a line for the season denoted by year. This is followed by a line for the Summary of the three season average. The average line is followed by a line denoted by Score in column A. That Score line is a score summary line computing how far the player’s average is from the baseline by a percentage calculation. The Score line is summed and those are the totals on the summary sheet. There are two other sheets containing the Summary lines only for each player. These can be sorted by the evaluation criteria to see where a player ranks in relation to other players.

Using the data I avoid putting to much emphasis on the results. Specifically the scores. The exercise was to help systematically come up with a top 16% of current running backs. It is more for a verification with data of what is generally reported on the player’s skills. I would not use the scores as a “ranking” of those top receivers. Although it was useful to tweak the calculation to arrive at a list that looks reasonably accurate.

If you are interested I have attached the data here – Running Back Data.

NFL Top Wide Receivers 2018 – Part 2 NFC

Today I continue the second part of the top wide receivers heading into the 2018 preseason and the teams they are on. We now cover the NFC as the AFC was covered in the prior post. From the 274 veteran wide receivers currently on rosters I selected 16% as the cutoff line for the top wide receivers. That comes to 44 receivers. I have slightly modified my selections since the AFC post and will go back and update that. Currently I have 20 receivers selected as top receivers in the NFC.

With the tables below I highlight the top receivers in yellow and the rookies in green.  Rookies were not considered in this exercise.  Although I do note some rookies that I find as interesting prospects but they are not considered in the top receivers. You can click on the table to open it into a larger display for better visibility. At the bottom of each team table I have a count of the number of non-rookie players and an average of the age column.

For my selections I looked at performance metrics for over the last three seasons combined. I felt on one year is not a good enough sample size but three should give a good sample of relatively recent performance. For first and second year players I used what was there. Those players were not penalized for being new and their data was compared to the three year average for the older players.

Here are the performance metrics used and a baseline for each that was considered the line between average and good performance.

  • yards after catch (YAC) per reception (4.6 yards)
  • 100+ games per total games (16%)
  • 1st downs per receptions (63%)
  • receptions per targets (63%)
  • yards per targets (8.32 yards)
  • games per touchdowns (3.1 games per 1 touchdown or less)
  • yards per receptions (13.3 yards)
  • drops and fumbles per targets (4% or less)
  • yards per game (60 yards)
  • big plays(25+ yards) per receptions (12%)

The baseline was used to calculate how close each player’s three year average was to the baseline. I used a per game or reception/target qualifier on most to better compare players without rewarding players that had more opportunities. I did penalize players that did not meet some minimum receptions numbers and also others that were heavily weighted to a good 2015 performance but did poorly since.  The latter caused me to remove Brandon Marshall from consideration. Though his numbers were good for the three year average he had done poorly in the last two.

Here are the results for the NFC.

NFC East

NFC East Wide Receivers
NFC East Wide Receivers

Allen Hurns, now with the Cowboys, was ranked by Pro Football Focus as the fourth most efficient receiver in 2017 in getting first downs with 50% of his targets getting a first down.  Over the last three seasons his 1st down to receptions ratio was above 65% each season with two seasons being above 70%. Hurn’s 2015 season was outstanding excelling in 9 of 11 receiving metrics including a 1.5 game to touchdown ratio. Over 3 seasons and 274 veterans currently on rosters only a total of 21 player seasons accomplished a 1.5 ratio or better.

While Odell Beckham, of the Giants, does not have the most receiving touchdowns over the last three seasons, he does have the top games to touchdowns ratio among players currently on NFL rosters. Beckham has scored a touchdown on average every 1.35 games.

Alshon Jeffery, of the Eagles, is adept at picking up first downs. His 1st down to reception ratio over the last three seasons is 78.5%. Among wide receivers currently on rosters that is the third best. He was above 77% each of those three seasons.

Jamison Crowder, of the Redskins, had the 14th best catch percentage (68.6%) over the last three seasons. Crowder is one of only 13 wide receivers currently on NFL rosters that over the last three seasons have a yards after the catch of 5.68 or more with a minimum of 50 receptions.

The Cowboys selected Michael Gallup in the 2018 NFL draft. Gallup posted a 39% market share of his team’s receiving yards to passing yards in one of his college seasons. Gallup ranked fifth in receiving yards in his college senior year with 1,413. He was a combine top performer among wide receivers in the vertical jump (9th), broad jump (11th) and 60 yard shuttle (12th).

The Redskins selected Mr Irrelevant with the last pick of the draft – Trey Quinn. Quinn was ranked  11th in receiving yards in his 2017 college season. He had posted a 32% market share of his team’s receiving yards one of his college seasons. Quinn was ranked fourth in receiving touchdowns in 2017 in college with 13. Trey posted a 74% catch rate and a 56% success rate in a season in college.

NFC North

NFC North Wide Receivers
NFC North Wide Receivers

Allen Robinson, now of da Bears, is looking to bounce back from injury in 2018. Robinson had a monster year in 2015 in which over 23% of his receptions went for big plays (25+ yards), he scored a touchdown every 1.14 games, and he had six 100+ yard receiving games. Over the past three seasons for players currently on rosters only seven had a season with a big play to receptions ratio of better than 23% for minimum 32 receptions. None had more receptions on those big play seasons than Robinson’s 80. The next closest was Brandin Cooks with 65 receptions for his season.

Technically, over the past three seasons no other receiver has had more targets and a higher catch rate than Golden Tate of the Lions. I say technically because Larry Fitzgerald has had significantly more targets but his catch rate is a fraction lower. Doug Baldwin is also in that group with less targets than Tate but a tenths of a better catch rate. Of the forty-four receivers I selected as the top receivers, Tate has the fourth best YAC/Reception ratio at 6.67 yards.

Marvin Jones, of the Lions, excels in getting the big play. Of wide receivers currently on rosters only two had more big plays (25+ yards) than Jones in 2017. Jones was tied with three other receivers at 15 big plays. Over the past three seasons his combined big play total of 33 is topped by only seven wide receivers currently on rosters.

Kenny Golladay, of the Lions, was off to a good start his rookie season.  Golladay’s big plays (25+ yards) per reception of 25% is ranked third among wide receivers currently on rosters with minimum 10 receptions in 2017.  He is sure handed having zero drops and zero fumbles. His 17 yards per reception ranked 7th in the NFL for wide receivers with minimum 10 receptions. His 9.94 yards per target ranked 13th among wide receivers with minimum 10 targets. Among the 274 veteran wide receivers currently on rosters of those with minimum 10 receptions in 2017, only 12 had a better YAC per reception than Golladay’s 6.39 yards. Golladay needs to improve his catch rate (58%) and get more targets (48) in 2018. (YAC is yards after the catch.)

Davante Adams, of the Packers, has the seventh best games to touchdown ratio at 1.84 of all wide receivers currently on rosters for the last three seasons. Combined touchdowns for only the last two seasons Adams led the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 22.  Adams had a YAC per reception over 4.6 yards for each of the last three seasons. He was one of only 15 receivers currently on rosters to accomplish that.

Adam Thielen, of the Vikings ,had the 15th best catch percentage (68.3%) over the last three seasons. Thielen was one of only five wide receivers currently on NFL rosters that had 3 or more 100+ yard games in each of the 2016 and 2017 seasons. Adam was one of only 20 wide receivers currently on NFL rosters that had at least 12% of their receptions go for big plays (25+ yards) for each of the last two seasons. Over the last two season Thielen’s yards per target of 9.59 was ranked sixth among wide receivers with a minimum 50 targets. Thielen is one of thirty wide receivers currently on NFL rosters that had 63% or more of their receptions go for a first down for each of the last two seasons for receivers with a minimum 11 receptions per year.

Stefon Diggs, of the Vikings, is a sure handed receiver. He is one of four wide receivers currently on rosters that had a 1% or better fumble rate, a drop rate of 1.73% or better and a catch rate of 65% or better over the last three seasons for receivers with a minimum of 20 receptions. The Vikings had the highest team contested catch rate in 2017 and it was led by Diggs with his 64% contested catch rate.

The Vikings picked up Korey Robertson as an undrafted free agent following the 2018 NFL draft. Robertson posted a 36% team market share in receiving yards one of his college seasons. In his last college season Robertson was ranked 17th in receiving yards (1,106 yards), 8th in receiving touchdowns (12), and posted a very respectable 9.5 yards per target , a 65% catch rate and and a 52.5% success rate.

NFC South

NFC South Wide Receivers
NFC South Wide Receivers

Julio Jones, of the Falcons, is one of three players in my top forty-four that have averaged in the 40 percentile for 100+ yard games over the last three seasons. Two of those three seasons he broke 100+ in half or more of his games. The other two are Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham (discounting his injured 2017  season). Over the past three seasons Julio’s yards per target average of 9.84 is ranked third among wide receivers with a minimum 30 targets. He was topped only by two rookies that did it only for one year -JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kenny Golladay. over the past three seasons Jones has the second highest receiving yards per game among wide receivers with 102.7.

For each of Ted Ginn‘s last three seasons both his ratios of big plays to receptions and his yards to receptions were above the average baseline in each season. Of the veterans on rosters only 15 players accomplished that feat. Ginn’s yards/receptions average of 15.09 yards was 16th in the league over that time-frame. Ginn is a fast receiver and clocked a 4.38 forty at his pro-day.

Over the last two seasons no wide receiver has a better combined catch percentage (72.6%) with more targets (270) than Michael Thomas, of the Saints. For combined rookie and second year since 2000 Michael Thomas is ranked 1st in receptions (196), 4th in receiving yards (2,382) and 7th in yards per game (76.8).

Over the last three seasons combined no wide receiver currently on an NFL roster with a minimum of 10 receptions had a better first down percentage (82.6%) than Mike Evans of the Buccaneers. Over the last three seasons Evan’s 76.7 receiving yards per game ranked seventh.

Over the past three seasons DeSean Jackson, of the Buccaneers, has had 136 receptions with a 1.26% drop percentage and 0% fumbles. Of the wide receivers currently on NFL rosters only Pierre Garcon had better numbers related to receptions and drops/fumbles. Over the past three seasons Jackson’s 16.2 yards per reception ranked seventh among wide receivers with a minimum of 50 receptions.

Over the last three seasons of wide receivers currently on an NFL roster, Chris Godwin’s 1st down conversion percentage of 79.4% ranks second for receivers with a minimum 10 receptions. In 2017 Godwin’s 9.55 yards per target ranked 10th among wide receivers with a minimum 25 targets. In 2017 among wide receivers currently on NFL rosters only three receivers had zero drops and zero fumbles like Godwin but with more receptions than Godwin’s 34 receptions. Godwin’s 15.44 yards per reception ranked 12th in the NFL last season for wide receivers with a minimum 30 receptions.

The Saints picked Tre’Quan Smith in the 2018 NFL draft. Smith posted a 31% team market share of receiving yards one of his college seasons. In his last year in college Smith ranked 4th in receiving touchdowns(13), 12th in receiving yards (1,171 yards) and 15th in yards per reception (19.85). He had good numbers in yards per target (13.6 yards), catch rate (68.6%) and success rate (60.5%).

NFC West

NFC West Wide Receivers
NFC West Wide Receivers

Over the past three seasons no wide receiver has had more targets (456) with a higher catch percentage (71.3%) than Larry Fitzgerald of the Cardinals. For wide receivers currently on NFL rosters with over 120 targets in that time-frame only Pierre Garcon had a better drop percentage than Fitzgerald ‘s 1.1%.

In 2017 Brandin Cooks, of the Rams, was tied for third among wide receivers currently on rosters for number of big plays (25+ yards) with 15. He is one of only four wide receivers on rosters that have over 40 big plays over the past three seasons. The others being Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton and Julio Jones. Over the past three seasons Brandin’s 70.7 yards per game ranks eleventh among all active receivers.

Over the past three seasons, Cooper Kupp, of the Rams, has the tenth best YAC per reception ratio (5.92) among wide receivers on rosters with minimum 50 receptions. Cooper Kupp’s catch percentage of 66% ranks 15th for active wide receiver rookies over the last five seasons (minimum 25 targets), his 9.24 yards per target at 14th and his 5 touchdowns as 16th.

Doug Baldwin, of the Seahawks, over the past three seasons has the highest catch percentage (71.8%) for wide receivers with over 300 targets. Over that time-frame Baldwin scored a touchdown on average once every 1.66 games. This is the fifth best Touchdown ratio for players currently on NFL rosters. Of the eleven categories evaluated, Baldwin’s average excelled in nine. In six of those nine he excelled for each of the last three seasons.

Following the 2018 NFL draft the 49ers signed undrafted free agent Steven Dunbar. Dunbar posted a 30.7% team receiving yards market share one of his college seasons. His senior year in college he broke 1,000 yards receiving and posted respectable numbers for yards/catch (14.1), yards/target (9.6) and catch rate (67.9%).

Data Backup

I have included the data sheet I used in evaluation for those that may be interested. One sheet has the player’s score summaries. The top 44 players are highlighted by yellow in column A. The other sheet has three seasons of data on the players followed by columns of calculations for evaluation criteria (See part II of the post for list of criteria).  Cells exceeding the criteria baseline are highlighted in yellow. Each player has a line for the season denoted by year. This is followed by a line for the three season average. The average line is followed by a line denoted by an S in column A. That “S” line is a score summary line computing how far the player’s average is from the baseline by a percentage calculation. The S line is summed and those are the totals on the summary sheet.

The calculation was tweaked to combine data on fumbles and drops into one category. This was because using them separate distorting the results to overly favor “sure-handedness”.

Using the data I avoid putting to much emphasis on the results. Specifically the scores. The exercise was to help systematically come up with a top 16% of current receivers. It is more for a verification with data of what is generally reported on the player’s skills. I would not use the scores as a “ranking” of those top receivers. Although it was useful to tweak the calculation to arrive at a list that looks reasonably accurate.

Three year receiver performance data