2019 Losing Teams With Offenses To Be Playoff Contenders In 2020

The salary cap and the NFL draft have helped promote parity in the league. This helps teams to turn things around quickly. In the twenty seasons from 2000 thru 2019 thirty five teams went from last in their division to the playoffs the next year. That is an average of 1.75 teams a year. There was a team that went from last to a playoff spot the next season every year from 2000 with the only exceptions being 2002, 2014 and 2019. In 2017 three teams made the playoffs that were last in their division the prior season. There were 32 teams that had 5 or less wins the season before and made the playoffs the nest season for a 1.6 team average. The average amount of wins for those teams was four.

Counting teams last or 2nd to last in their division the number of teams to make the playoffs the nest season was 76 teams over 20 years. That is an average total of 3.8 teams a year. Every team has accomplished that transition at least once except for the Browns. The transition from second to last or worse to a playoff spot happened every season since 2000. The recent 2019 season had four teams in the playoffs that were 3rd or last in their division in 2018. The 2017 season had 7 of the 12 playoff teams finished 3rd or last in their division the prior year. The average wins for the 76 teams that went second to last or worse to the playoffs was 5.8 wins their losing season.

In 2019 the teams that were last in their division were the Cardinals, Lions, Redskins, Panthers, Bengals, Chargers, Dolphins and Jaguars. The teams with five or less wins were the Bengals, Redskins, Lions, Giants, Dolphins, Chargers, Panthers and Cardinals. The teams that were second to last were the Rams, Bears, Giants, Buccaneers, Browns, Raiders, Jets and Colts. The Giants were the only team with five or less wins that were not last in their division. The Jaguars were the only team with more than five wins that were last in their division.

If you go by averages over the last four seasons then you would expect roughly five teams that were third or fourth in their division to make the 2020 season playoffs. It also helps that the number of playoff teams will grow in the 2020 season from 12 to 14. To discern teams that may accomplish this I looked for teams that had offensive weapons for both receiving and rushing. After coming up with five teams I checked that defensively they could compete. My picks for last place teams to make the 2020 season playoffs are the Chargers, Panthers and Bengals. For the second to last place teams I pick the Buccaneers and Giants. (This would be similar to the 2012 season in which four sub .500 2011 teams made the playoffs. That group’s prior season had three that were last in their division and had 5 or less wins plus one team third in their division with 7 wins.)

All five of these 2020 teams made a list of ten NFL teams whose roster has four players that in 2019 made first down on 33% of their targets. Four of the five teams have a running back that in the last two seasons was in the top six running backs for number of plays of 10+ yards. The only one of the five teams that does not meet both criteria is the Buccaneers. They lacked the running back talent. However when I cover Tampa Bay I will explain why they are the exception. Here is a list of the running backs showing the touches for all plays of 10+ yards over the last two seasons.

Rank Player Team Rec Rec Yds Rec TD Rush Att Rush Yds Rush TD Sum Plays Sum Yds Sum Tds
1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 75 1188 5 62 1213 6 137 2401 11
2 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 38 605 4 79 1270 5 117 1875 9
3 Saquon Barkley NYG 38 789 4 58 1371 9 96 2160 13
4 Austin Ekeler LAC 56 1076 9 34 567 0 90 1643 9
5 Todd Gurley ATL 31 542 4 56 883 5 87 1425 9
6 Joe Mixon CIN 22 366 1 63 1161 1 85 1527 2
                       
36 Ronald Jones TAM 15 254 0 20 353 0 35 607 0
Running Back Ten Plus Yards Plays for the 2018-2019 Seasons

Panthers

Over the last two seasons Running back Christian McCaffrey had the most plays by a running back of 10+ yards, the most yards from such plays and the most first downs from those plays. Of the top three backs in the league for 10+ yard plays over the last two seasons McCaffrey had the highest percentage of such plays over all rush attempts and pass targets combined. In addition, Christian McCaffrey became just the third player in NFL history to run for 1,000+ yards and have at least 1,000 receiving yards in the same season. McCaffrey was fifth among running backs in 2019 in yards after the catch per reception with 8.8 yards.

In 2018 Panther wide receiver D.J. Moore was first among wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception with 7.7 yards. They added Jets receiver Robby Anderson in free agency. Anderson has earned 112 targets that were 20 or more yards downfield since 2016 (fifth in NFL).

In 2019 quarterback Teddy Bridgewater led all quarterbacks with more than two starts in lowest intended air yards per pass attempt with a 6.2 yards. He was eighth in yards after the catch per completion with 5.7 yards. Bridgewater was third in on target throws and fourth in lowest bad throw percentage. His high accuracy short yardage game fits well with a talented receiving corps in first down percentage and yards after the catch.

Player Pos Yds YBC/R YAC/R Drop % 1d/Tgt %
Christian
McCaffrey
RB 1005 -0.1 8.8 4.9 40.8
D.J.
Moore
WR 1175 9.1 4.4 3.0 46.7
Robby
Anderson
WR 779 11.3 3.7 4.2 36.5
Curtis
Samuel
WR 627 8.8 2.8 6.7 34.3
Carolina Panthers Receiving Stats For Players With 33% First Downs / Target

The big challenge will be for the defense to step up. Carolina became the first team in the post merger draft era (since 1967) to spend each of its picks on defensive players. They drafted defensive tackle Derrick Brown who is regarded by many as one of the top three prospects in the 2020 draft. Brown is a big, strong tackle that plays with hustle and thru to the whistle. He is a core player you build your defense around. Their first round pick in 2019, linebacker Brian Burns, had a good rookie season. In on just 43% of the defensive snaps he still had 7.5 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, 5 tackles for loss and 17 solo tackles. He was one of only 13 rookie players since 2006 to put up those numbers. Defensive tackle Kawaan Short is coming back from 2019 season ending surgery. The former second round draft pick in his three years from 2015 thru 2017 was twelfth in the league among defensive linemen in sacks with 24.5. This defensive line should be a strong unit.

On the secondary they had a key loss when cornerback James Bradberry signed with the Giants. Safety Tre Boston finished with PFF’s fourth-highest grade (90.6) among qualifying safeties, and he allowed a sub-80.0 passer rating for the fifth consecutive year. Last season the Panthers were 29th in points differential at -130 and 31st in points against with 470. They selected cornerback try Pride in the forth round. In his career at Notre Dame Pride has given up only 5 catches of 25+ yards though he was targeted 175 times. They need Troy Pride to perform well in his rookie season.

Chargers

For the last three seasons starting in 2017 Charger wide receiver Keenan Allen was 1st, 11th and 5th in the league for receiving first downs. For his seven year career 44.1% of his targets have achieved first down. Compared to 12 other generally regarded active top receivers only Michael Thomas and Julio Jones had a better percentage. Fellow Charger, Mike Williams has a career average of 50.3% of his targets get first downs. Of the 12 top receivers that was only topped by Michael Thomas at 50.8%. William’s 20.4 yards per reception in 2019 was first in the league. Tight end Hunter Henry has a career 51.3% of his targets go for a first down. Running back Austin Ekeler was second in the league in yards after the catch for each of the last two seasons averaging just over 10 yards after the catch. Seventh round pick receiver K.J. Hill may be a steal. Hill has shown good ability to gain separation.

Player Pos Yds YBC/R YAC/R Drop% 1d/tgt %
Austin Ekeler RB 993 0.6 10.2 0.9 38.9
Mike Williams WR 1001 16.6 3.8 4.4 45.6
Keenan Allen WR 1199 7.9 3.6 4.7 42.3
Hunter Henry TE 652 8.9 3 5.3 47.4
LA Chargers Receiving Stats For Players With 33% First Downs / Target

Comparing quarterback Tyrod Taylor to Phillip Rivers for the three years (2015-2017) that Taylor was starting in Buffalo there are some statistical similarities. Their quarterback ratings those years were almost identical at 92.6 (Rivers) to 92.5 (Taylor). Their adjusted yards per pass attempt also similar at 7.45 (Rivers) to 7.41 (Taylor). The same at completion percentage – 63.2% (Rivers) to 62.6% (Taylor). Differences show up when comparing career TD% – 5.2% (Rivers) to 4.0% (Taylor) – and Interception percent – 2.6% (Rivers) to 1.5% (Taylor). In 46 games and 1246 pass attempts Rivers had 35 interceptions. In 46 games and 930 pass attempts Taylor had only 15 interceptions. Another difference is Taylor is more mobile. Taylor has a career rushing 26.3 yards/game and 5.5 yards/attempt. Rivers has a career rushing 2.7 yards/game and 1.7 yards/attempt. Philip Rivers was a more accurate quarterback. For 2018 figures Taylor had only 85 pass attempts and a 24% bad throw percentage. Rivers had 508 attempts and a 12.9% bad throw percentage. Taylor has the weapons to succeed and is a decent quarterback that protects the football.

Defensively the Chargers have weapons such as edge rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Also safety Derwin James. James missed most of his rookie season due to surgery. Cornerback Casey Hayward graded out by PFF as number three of 115 cornerbacks in 2019. However all this talent did not come together that well last season. They ranked 23rd in opposing quarterback rating and 22nd in sack percentage. They were 20th in opposing quarterback adjusted yards per attempt. The Chargers added linebacker Kenneth Murray in the first round of the draft. They added Linval Joseph, an outstanding run-stuffing defensive tackle, in free agency. They signed cornerback Chris Harris in free agency. Harris made PFF’s top 101 decade list at number 12. If the defense plays up to their talent level the Chargers should be capable of contending for a playoff spot.

Bengals

Receiver Auden Tate had a 39.3% contested catch rate which ranked 20th in the league. A.J. Green‘s 2018 contested catch rate of 66.7% ranked third in the league that season. Green missed the 2019 season due to injury. Green had 1,000+ yards receiving for six of his eight seasons he played. The other two seasons he only played nine and ten games. Receiver Alex Erickson ranked sixth among wide receivers in 2019 in yards after the catch per reception. Following the 2018 season PFF ranked Tyler Boyd as the fourth best slot receiver in the league. Running back Joe Mixon ranked third in yards after the catch per reception. Mixon ranks sixth among running backs for number of plays of 10+ yards over the last two seasons.

Player Pos Yds YBC/R YAC/R Drop% 1d/tgt %
AJ Green WR 506 11.0 7.1 14.3 39.3
Alex Erickson WR 529 6.2 6.1 2.6 33.3
Tyler Boyd WR 1046 6.9 4.7 3.4 34.5
Auden Tate WR 575 11.4 3.0 3.8 36.3
Cincinnati Bengals Receiving Stats For Players With 33% First Downs / Target

Quarterback Joe Burrow 2019 season had the second highest Passing Efficiency Rating for a season since 2000. It was the first highest for quarterbacks that played a full season. His 2019 season also had the second highest pass completion percentage for a season since 2000. One of Burrow’s strengths is his accuracy. This combined with a strong receiver corp and a good run game makes the Bengals an offensive team that should be able to compete for a wildcard playoff spot.

The Bengals have a strong defensive line. Edge rusher Carlos Dunlop was rated by PFF for the 2019 season as ranked second among edge rushers. Nose tackle DJ Reader was ranked 8th among defensive linemen. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins was ranked 19th among 118 defensive linemen.

Where they lack talent is among linebackers and the secondary. They draft linebacker Logan Wilson in the third round and Akeem Davis-Gaither in the fourth. Davis-Gaither was the 2019 Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year. He has good coverage skills and experience, plays fast and agile, and was an effective blitzer. He was a 2020 Senior Bowl Practice Player of the week. After making the 2016 MWC Freshman of the Year, Logan Wilson followed in 2017 on the All MWC Second Team and the 2019 First Team. He was on PFF’s 2019 All American First Team. He had over 12% solo tackle team market share each of his last three seasons. A three down linebacker Wilson excels in tackling and can cover zone or short area. Questionable if his speed is adequate to cover longer. Logan’s aggressive nature leads to missed tackles. These linebackers if they step up in the NFL should make the Bengals strong in at the line and mid-field.

The deep secondary is questionable. The Bengals were last in the league last year in opponent passing yards per attempt and yards per completion. They allowed 70 passes of 20+ yards last season which was third worst in the league. They signed a bunch of secondary help in free agency with Mackensie Alexander, Trae Waynes and Vonn Bell. These players should help though none of them had outstanding 2019 seasons. If this new secondary can step up the defense should help the Bengals contend for a wildcard. PFF using their preseason simulation of the 2020 NFL season picked the Bengals as one of three surprise playoff contenders this fall.

Buccaneers

The team that most would agree with on this list is the Buccaneers. They finished 7-9 last season and were third in a strong division. The Bucs have finished last in their division for eight of the last eleven seasons. They have not made the playoffs in over a decade and have the second longest drought in the league. Yet after signing Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski many see the Bucs as a playoff contender. Recent odds from Westgate’s SuperBook had the Bucs tie for fourth-best odds in the NFC to make the playoffs.

Of the list of ten teams that have four players that had a 33% or better 2019 percentage of receiving 1st downs per target, the Buccaneers have the most players and the highest average percentage among those players. They have a total of five players and four have over a 40% rate.

Buccaneers Rob Gronkowski (58%) and Chris Godwin (52%) have the highest two percents of 1st downs/target. Chris Godwin also has the third best yards after the catch among wide receivers in 2019 and the fifth lowest drop percentage. Receiver Mike Evans joins Randy Moss as the only players to start their career with six 1000+ receiving yards seasons. Evans is entering his seventh season and could take sole possession of the record with another 1000 yard season. Tight end OJ Howard is one of only three tight ends that have an active streak of 3+ consecutive seasons with a 64% catch rate, 400+ receiving yards, 8+ yards/target and 30+ receiving yards per game. Tight end Cameron Brate is one of only two tight ends to have 5+ seasons of 3+ touchdowns and a 61% catch rate for each year of their career.

Player Pos Yds YBC/R YAC/R Drop% 1d/tgt %
Chris Godwin WR 1333 8.8 6.7 0.8 52.1
O.J. Howard TE 459 9.1 4.4 9.4 43.4
Mike Evans WR 1157 13.4 3.8 5.9 45.8
Cameron Brate TE 311 6.1 2.5 3.6 38.2
Rob
Gronkowski
TE 682 10.6 3.9 4.2 58.3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Receiving Stats For Players With 33% First Downs / Target

The Buccaneers are the only one of the five teams listed here that did not have a running back that in the last two seasons was in the top six running backs for number of plays of 10+ yards. This had been viewed as a plus criteria for inclusion but Tampa’s dominant receiver corp offsets that criteria. They have a decent back in Ronald Jones that they hope can elevate his game in his upcoming third season. They added third round draft pick running baclk Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Vaughn elevated his game the last two seasons after transferring to Vanderbilt. He is one of only seven backs that over the last two seasons had 2000+ yards rushing, 400+ yards receiving and 6+ yards per rush attempt.

For the 2019 season Tamp Bay was ranked fifth in defense by Football Outsiders DVOA system. They kept a strong defensive line intact for 2020 with defensive linemen Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea and William Gholston. On the edge they have playmakers Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. Linebacker Lavonte David was ranked third among linebackers by PFF. They hope 2019 first round pick linebacker Devin White improves from a tough rookie year. In the secondary corner Carlton Davis had a good year and was second in the league with 19 pass breakups. Rookie corner Jamel Dean made the PFF 2019 All-Rookie team. After a tough start since Week 10, Dean’s passer rating allowed of 29.1 was the lowest in the NFL by over 10 points, and his forced incompletion rate of 30.3% also led the position group. They also added second round draft pick safety Antoine Winfield Jr.

Giants

Like the other teams listed here the Giants have four players that had 33% of their targets made first down in 2019. In addition they have a running back that is in the top six of backs with the most plays of 10+ yards over the last two seasons. Saquon Barkley was number three on that list.

Receiver Golden Tate was eighth among wide receivers in 2019 for yards after the catch per reception. Saquon Barkley was tenth among running backs in yards after the catch and ninth the prior year. Sterling Shepard had the sixth lowest drop percentage among wide receivers. In 2018 Evan Engram was second among tight ends in yards after the catch per receptions. Rookie receiver Darius Slayton made PFF’s list of top fifty rookies thru week 17. He had seven receptions that resulted in a gain of at least 30 yards — tied for the 16th most in the league. Slayton ended the year with a 70.5 receiving grade that currently ranks sixth among rookie players at the position.

This is a talented receiving corp that makes the most out of their catches with yards after the catch. It is augmented by a top tier running back that makes big plays. Add in Daniel Jones who was listed as the most efficient RPO thrower in 2019. In RPO plays Jones posted a 136.1 passer rating with 15 completions on 18 attempts for 140 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. This will be an offense that is tough to defend against given a multitude of weapons and a knack for getting yards after the catch.

Player Pos Yds YBC/R YAC/R Drop% 1d/tgt %
Golden Tate WR 676 8.0 5.8 3.5 35.3
Evan Engram TE 467 4.9 5.7 4.4 33.8
Darius Slayton WR 740 11.5 3.9 2.4 38.1
Sterling Shepard WR 576 7.0 3.1 1.2 34.9
NY Giants Receiving Stats For Players With 33% First Downs / Target

The Giants had a problem on defense in 2019. They were 28th in opponent net yards gained on pass attempt, number of interceptions and opponent passer rating. They were 27th in opponent touchdown percentage. On a positive note the Giants were fourth in opponent rushing yards per attempt.

Rookie DT Dexter Lawrence made the PFF 2019 All Rookie team. His 76.3 run-defense grade ranks 21st among 117 qualifying interior defenders this season. DT Dalvin Tomlinson was one of only ten defensive tackles that had 3 sacks, 20 solo tackles, 7 tackles for loss and 9 quarterback hits. PFF ranked Tomlinson as 11th among all interior defensive linemen with at least 500 snaps. According to Pro Football Focus among 87 interior defenders with 200 or more pass-rushing snaps, Leonard Williams ranked 13th in pressure rate at 11.3%. Williams was often double teamed allowing Tomlinson and Lawrence to get to the quarterback. This is a real strong interior defensive line.

In the secondary Julian Love made the PFF list of their top 50 rookies through week 17 at number 13. Love earned the ninth-best PFF grade in the box and allowed just 19 yards on his 80 coverage snaps at that alignment. The Giants added corner James Bradberry in free agency. Bradberry is one of thirteen players that have 8+ career interceptions and an active streak of an interception every season of their career. He had three interceptions in 2019 and allowed only a 70 passer rating when targeted. They added second round draft pick safety Xavier McKinney. In 2019 McKinney had three interceptions and four forced fumbles. McKinney can play all over the field – slot, deep zone and up at the line. Pro Football Focus has him earned grades of 84.7 in run defense, 90.9 as a pass-rusher, and 91.2 in coverage for his career. The Giants also drafted corner Darnay Holmes. Holmes has had 2 or more interceptions each year of his three year college career. The Giants concentrated on fixing their secondary and it looks to be a much improved unit.

They also upgraded their linebacker corp. They signed Blake Martinez as a free agent. For the last three years of his four year career Martinez has had an average 13.4% team market share of solo tackles. Linebacker Luke Kuechly is regarded as one of the best linebackers of recent years. His average solo tackle team market share for the five years that he was first team All-Pro was 13.6%. Now Kuechly was a better pass coverage backer than Martinez but as for tackling machines Martinez is very good. Linebacker Ryan Connelly returns from a season ending injury last year in week three. In just three games in his rookie season last year Connelly had one sack, two interceptions, ten solo tackles and two tackles for loss. At his 2019 combine Connelly ran the third-quickest 10-yard split (1.54 seconds) of any off-ball linebacker that weighed in at 240-plus pounds at the NFL Combine since 2010.

Outside Linebacker Oshane Ximines had 4.5 sacks on 503 defensive snaps or 45% of the defensive snaps. Pro Bowl Bear Khalil Mack had 8.5 sacks on 925 snaps. On a per snap basis those numbers are comparable. Granted fatigue sets in and there is no reason to believe Ximines would continue that sack rate if he played more. However it is just to illustrate that Ximines sack count was not bad. Outside linebacker Lorenzo Carter played 723 snaps or 65% of the defensive snaps and had a sack count of only the same as Ximines at 4.5. However according to PFF Carters overall grade jumped from 65.8 in his rookie year to 70.3 in his second year. They ranked him 38th among 102 edge rushers.

Last season injuries hurt the Giants offense. Due to injuries the Giants played zero games with Slayton, Tate, Shepard, Barkley, and Engram all in the lineup in 2019. Yet there were some positive offensive stats for the season. The Giants ranked 12th in touchdown percentage which is the percentage of touchdowns thrown when attempting to pass. They ranked seventh in rushing yards per attempt with 4.7. The Giants were sixth in fewest offensive penalty yards. They spent draft capital to fix the offensive line investing draft picks in the first, third and fifth rounds. A healthy offense combined with a defense that was invested in thru free agency and the draft should have the Giants competitive for a playoff spot.