The point spread on the Giants vs Rams for week four has the Rams favored by 13 points as of Thursday. There have been 115 games since the 2010 season where a team was an underdog by 13 points or more. Of those 115 games the underdog won for 12 of those games or roughly 10%.
All but one of those games was away for the underdog. The one home game had the Rams as an at home underdog playing the Saints in 2011.
The biggest spread of those underdog wins was last season. Miami was 17.5 point underdogs against the Patriots. With 3:53 remaining in the game Ryan Fitzpatrick drove Miami from their 25 yard line down the field for the game winning touchdown with 29 seconds remaining. Miami won 27-24.
The Giants are among the 12 underdog winners in a 2017 game against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos were favored by 13.5 points. The Giants won the game 23-10. The Giants led by Eli Manning scored one offensive touchdown. Starting on their 25 yard line the Giants had a drive where Eli hit Roger Lewis for a 15 yard gain and Orleans Darkwa had a run for 45 yards. It culminated in a 5 yard touchdown to Evan Engram. The Giants other touchdown came on an interception of Trevor Siemian by Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins returned the interception 43 yards for a touchdown. Other than that Giant Aldrick Rosas made three field goals including a 51 yarder. Denver had 366 passing yards to the Giants 118. However the Broncos had three turnovers to the Giants zero.
Of the 12 underdog wins Miami made the list twice and the Cardinals made the list three times. The losing teams includes two appearances by the Saints, Patriots and Eagles. The Rams made the list as a losing team when in 2018 they were 13.5 point favorites over the Eagles. The Rams lost the game 30-23.
The biggest point differential for one of the 12 underdogs was a 2018 game between the Bills and the Vikings. The Vikings were favored by 16.5 points. The Bills won the game 27-6. The Vikings turned the ball over three times to zero turnovers by the Bills.
Of the twelve wins only seven had a turnover margin for the winning team of +1 or more for 58%. The passer rating of the winners ranged from 58.7 to 105.5 with the average being 85. One stat that stood out was defensive yards per play allowed which averaged at 5.1 yards. The league average this year is 5.7 yards. In addition the opponent passer rating average was only 74 with the range form 32 to 85. One takeaway could be that a strong defense is a key in these underdog wins.
The Rams are 12th in turnover percentage with only 9.7% of drives resulting in an offensive turnover. The Giants are last with 24% of drives resulting in a turnover. The Rams have had an offensive turnover in each of their games with two in one of the games. So far the Giants games in sequence have benefited from 1, 2 and 0 turnovers.Julian Love and James Bradberry have each had an interception. Devante Downs has a fumble recovery. Daniel Jones has turned the ball over six times in three games. Bradberry has had 8 interceptions and two forced fumbles in his prior four seasons.
You have to go back to September 2015 since the Giants had a plus 2 turnover margin and lost the game. Since then they have had 17 games with a +2 or better turnover margin and won all of them. They had five in 2018 but none since.
The Rams are seventh in passer rating with a 109.6. Their only game this year below 100 was the opener against Dallas where they had a 78.6. The Giants held one team to an under 100 passer rating so far this season. The Bears only had a 74.9 passer rating. That was the Giants closest game and it came right down to a chance to win at the end. They lost by 3 points.
If the Giants lose this Sunday they will join only five other Giant teams out of 81 in Giant history that went 0-4 to start the season. Those teams were 1976, 1979, 1987, 2013 and 2017. None of those teams made the playoffs and the best finish was the 2013 team went 7-9.Those 0-4 starts account for 6 percent of all Giants seasons.
“On any given Sunday, any team in the NFL can beat any other team.” – Bert Bell. Bell was the second commissioner of the NFL. Prior to being NFL commissioner, as owner of the Eagles, Bell proposed a draft to help weaker teams compete with stronger teams. In 1935, his proposal for a draft was accepted, and in February 1936, the first draft kicked off, at which he acted as Master of Ceremonies. Interesting history on Bell who may have been the best NFL commissioner.
This weekend the Giants will be either be among the 11 percent of teams that were underdogs by 13+ points and won or among the 7 percent of Giant seasons to start 0–4. The only other team this weekend with a 13+ point spread is Washington who play the Ravens and also have a 13 point spread. I like the Giants chances better. Go Giants!
