With the teams in camp and the season roughly one month away I take a look at the best projected starting rookie roster in each division. the projected rosters were taken from Ourlads.com with a minor tweak on two of them.
AFC East
The NY Jets have the best assembly of starting rookies in the AFC East. Each one excelled at their position in college and deserve a starting position. The other two teams with starting rookies look like they are projected starters more out of need than readiness. The Bills have no projected starting rookies which may or may not be a good thing.
New York Jets – 3
OT Mekhi Becton (Rd 1)
Mekhi Becton is a massive people mover in the run game. Yet as shown at the combine he is also nimble. He ran a 5.1 forty. Not since 2006 has a player that large run that fast. He is good in pass protection with awesome power and length. He plays with a nasty attitude that you like to see.
WR Denzel Mims (Rd 2)
In 2017 Denzel Mims had 1,087 receiving yards which was a 31.5% team market share. His 15.7 career yards per catch is 20th among active career leaders. He is very good at contested catches and has a large catch radius. He also is a willing catcher in traffic.
PT Braden Mann (Rd 6)
Braden Mann won the 2018 Ray Guy Award given to the college football’s most outstanding punter. That season he averaged 51.0 yards on 50 punts and pinned 19 punts inside the 20-yard line. He was a 2018 unanimous All-American.
Miami Dolphins – 4
CB Noah Igbinoghene (Rd 1)
In 2018 Noah Igbinoghene attained an 8% team market share of solo tackles and a 20% team market share of passes defended. Those percentages are indicative of a potential All-Pro to Pro Bowl players since the 1989 NFL draft class. He was third in the SEC in passes defended.Noah has two career kickoffs returned for touchdowns. Noah broke up only six of his 69 targets this past season and didn’t have a single interception, leading to a 69.0 coverage grade. He has only one career interception.
DT Raekwon Davis, (Rd 2)
Strengths include strength, power and first step quickness. He is a strong defensive force against the run. Davis made the 2017 First-Team All SEC and the Second Team All-SEC in 2018 and 2019. In pass rushing Davis is not as good as his run defense. He earned a 62.7 pass-rushing grade in 2017 followed by 68.5 in 2018, and 71.1 this past year. This past season he had only half a sack.
OG Solomon Kindliey (Rd 4)
Kindley was a three year starter at Georgia. At 337 lbs Kindley shows a lot of power at the point of attack. “Nasty guard who lives in scrap mode, looking for fights inside a relatively small phone booth,” NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein writes. “Kindley has the frame of a powerful guard. He’s a mauler with enough finesse to get to some reach and cut-off blocks. The size and toughness are great.”
LS Blake Ferguson (Rd 6)
Blake Ferguson was a four year starter at long snapper and played in 53 consecutive games. He was a team captain for each of the last two years.
New England Patriots – 2
TE Devin Asiasi (Rd 3)
Devin Asiasi had 641 receiving yards in 2019 for a 20.9% team market share. For a tight end 98% of long-term starting players reached that level of market share. He averaged a career 15.2 yards per reception. Devin is built more like a fullback. He has soft hands who can get yards after the catch. Asiasi is also a solid blocker.
PK Justin Rohrwasser (Rd 5)
Rohrwasser was selected to 2019 First Team All Conference USA and was named the Conference USA Special Teams Most Valuable Player. In 2019 his 62 kickoffs averaged 60.4 yards and included 33 touchbacks.
Buffalo Bills – 0
None
AFC South
The Jacksonville Jaguars have assembled the best roster of potential rookie starters in the AFC South.
Jacksonville Jaguars – 2
LB K’lavon Chaisson (Rd 1)
K’lavon Chaisson was coaches First Team All SEC in 2019. Chaisson’s production has not been that good. Over 24 career games he has four passes defended, zero interceptions and 46 solo tackles.
CB C.J. Henderson (Rd 1)
CJ Henderson allowed 20 catches or less in all three seasons he played. Henderson is one of the better man cover corners in this draft class. Henderson has allowed only 28 first-downs on 637 coverage snaps over the past two seasons.
FB Connor Slomka (UDFA) (waived)
Connor Slomka finished second for Army last season with 658 rushing yards on 149 carries. In his four years at Army Connor never in a season averaged less than 4.4 yards per carry. Slomka is able to pursue an NFL career prior to his service obligation due to an executive order signed two years ago.
Indianapolis Colts – 1
WR Michael Pittman (Rd 2)
Michael Pittman had only 8 drops on 179 catchable balls in his career. Pittman does not have great speed and is not great at getting separation on deep balls. He does better on short intermediate routes. However his physicality and contested catch ability make up for that. He has a big catch radius and strong sure hands.
Houston Texans – 1
DT Ross Blacklock (Rd 2)
Ross Blacklock made Freshman All American in 2017. He missed the 2018 season due to injury and then made First Team All Big 12 in 2019. His Pro Football Focus 2019 run defense grade of 89.5 was one of the highest in the country.
Tennessee Titans – 0
None
AFC North
The best projected rookie starting roster in the AFC North would go to the Bengals with Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins.
Baltimore Ravens – 2
LB Patrick Queen (Rd 1)
Patrick Queen is athletic, fast and excels in coverage. He has great sideline to sideline range. Queen reads plays very well and gets to the spot to make a play. Queen is a wrap-up tackler and can cover tight ends and running backs. Queen’s production of solo tackles is below ideal levels you would want to see for a high draft prospect.
LB Malik Harrison (Rd 3)
Malik Harrison is one of only eight players that over the last two seasons combined had 100+ solo tackles, 25+ tackles for loss, 5+ sacks and 150+ total tackles. Of the eight Harrison had the second most passes defended with eight.
Cleveland Browns – 3
OT Jedrick Wills Jr. (Rd 1)
Jedrick Wills allowed only 11 pressures all season and only one in his last five games. He was 2019 All Sec First Team. Wills plays with a nasty disposition that you like to see. He is a mauler. He plays with strength and power generating movement. After an initial powerful punch he is able to maintain the push
FS Grant Delpit (Rd 2)
Grant Delpit won the 2019 Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back.Delpit was a two year consensus All-American with 2018 being an unanimous selection. Grant Delpit is one of only six players that over the last three seasons had a combined 120+ solo tackles, 7+ interceptions and 20+ passes defended. Out of those six players Delpit had the most sacks by three more than the next highest.
LB Jacob Phillips (Rd 3)
In 2019 Jacob Phillips had 56 solo tackles for an 11.6% team market share. That percentage is only 0.1% off of percentages indicative of a potential All-Pro to Pro Bowl players since the 1989 NFL draft class. According to Pro Football Focus he missed only three of his 88 tackle attempts in 2019, He was selected by PFF as the best tackler in 2019.
Cincinnati Bengals -2
QB Joe Burrow (Rd 1)
In 2019 Joe Burrow brought in nine awards including the Heisman Trophy, Davey O’Brien Award, Consensus All-American, AP Player of the Year, Manning Award, Maxwell Award and the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award. He was number one in the nation in pass completion percentage, passing yards, adjusted passing yards per attempt, passing touchdowns and passing efficiency rating. His career passing efficiency rating is sixth in NCAA history.
WR Tee Higgins (Rd 2)
Tee Higgins was a 2018 All ACC Second Team and 2019 First Team selection. Higgins excels at contested catches and made 23 of 43 contested catches over the last two seasons. He is a red zone threat and 6 of his 8 red zone targets in 2019 were touchdowns. He caught an incredible 73.8 percent of his targets and scored 25 touchdowns over the last two seasons.
Pittsburgh Steelers – 0
None
AFC West
The Denver Broncos has assembled the best roster of projected starting rookies for 2020 in the AFC West.
Kansas City Chiefs – 2
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Rd 1)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was one of only five players in 2019 that rushed for over 1,400 yards and averaged at least 6.5 yards per carry. He was seventh in the FBS in rushing plays of 20+ yards with 16. One of those was for 80+ yards. Of the top 100 players in rushing yards, Clyde had the third most receiving yards with 453. A third of his rush attempts made first down, According to Pro Football Focus Edwards-Helaire had the third highest elusiveness rating among top backs in this year’s draft.
PT Tommy Townsend (UDFA)
In 2018 Tommy Townsend was ninth in the FBS in punting average yards with 45.4 yards.
Denver Broncos -3
WR Jerry Jeudy (Rd 1)
Jerry Jeudy was 2018 All Sec First Team and 2019 All Sec Coaches First Team. He was a PFF 2019 Second Team All American. Jeudy was ninth in receiving plays of 20+ yards in 2019 and sixth in 2018. In 2018 he was third in receiving touchdowns with 14. Jeudy excels in route running and has great explosiveness. He would best be utilized in the slot.
WR K.J. Hamler (Rd 2)
In 2019 67.9% of K.J. Hamler’s receptions made first down and 44.6% were for 15+ yards. His 11 deep receptions from the slot were the third most of any receiver from the slot. Hamler is fast and he reported that he had run a 4.27 forty. Only five players in the history of the combine have ever posted a faster time than 4.27.
OC Lloyd Cushenberry III (Rd 3)
Lloyd Cushenberry was coaches First Team All SEC in 2019. The LSU team won the 2019 Joe Moore Award given to college football’s best offensive line. Cushenberry started every game over the last two years at center and the team was 25-3 over that span. He was the first offensive lineman to be awarded the No. 18 jersey, which is given to the player that best represents what it means to be an LSU football player – on and off the field.
Las Vegas Raiders – 1
WR Henry Ruggs (Rd 1)
Ruggs ran a 4.27-second 40-yard dash at the 2020 NFL Combine, which was the fastest time by any prospect by .08 seconds, and tied for the fourth-fastest ever at the event since electronic timing began in 1999. Ruggs also had 42 inch vertical jump which was tied for second among all players. His broad jump was tied for fourth among wide receivers. He is one of only 13 players in 2019 that had 700+ receiving yards and an average yards per reception of better than 18.5.
Los Angeles Chargers – 1
LB Kenneth Murray (Rd 1)
Kenneth Murray started all 40 games of his three year career. In the last two seasons he had a team market share of solo tackles of 13% in 2018 and 12.4% in 2019, both percentages are indicative of a potential All-Pro to Pro Bowl players since the 1989 NFL draft class. His coverage grades are not as good. He has zero career interceptions and only six passes defended. According to Pro Football Focus he allowed 82.4% of his targets to be completed in his time at Oklahoma.
NFC West
The Arizona Cardinals have assembled the best projected starting rookie roster in the NFC West.
Arizona Cardinals – 2
LB Isaiah Simmons (Rd 1)
Athleticism, production, character, versatility – Simmons has everything you want in a player. He can do it all. According to PFF “Simmons played over 100 defensive snaps at edge defender, linebacker, strong safety, free safety and slot cornerback, and he played this array of positions well. He earned grades of 80.0 or higher as a run defender, pass rusher and coverage defender.” No other college player since 2000 has had the production of his 2019 season. Simmons had 67 solo tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, 8 sacks, 3 interceptions, 8 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles. At the combine among linebackers Simmons had the top forty, tie for third vertical and the second best broad jump.
OT Josh Jones (Rd 3)
After a redshirt freshman season, Josh Jones started at left tackle for the next four seasons. In 2016 he was the only offensive lineman to start and play in all 13 games. He led the unit with 38 knockdown blocks and graded out at 81 percent. In 2019 starting 9 games at left tackle he allowed only one sack though the season. Jones was a standout at the Senior Bowl stoning rushers in pass protection on practice day 2 and again having a good day on day 3. Jones plays with a brutal demeanor giving an all out effort to overwhelm defenders into oblivion. He shows good athleticism when getting to the second level. Pro Football Focus had Josh Jones ranked 14th on their draft big board.
Los Angeles Rams – 2
EDGE Terrell Lewis (Rd 3)
Terrell Lewis made the coaches 2019 All SEC Second Team. From Pro Football Focus Lewis earned a solid 85.8 pass-rushing grade this past season.
PK Sam Sloman (Rd 7)
From Pro Football Focus, Sam Sloman’s field goal grade was the highest of all kickers last season. He made 26 of 30 attempts. His 26 FG made was fourth most in the FBS trailing the leader by three with four less attempts.
Seattle Seahawks – 1
LB Jordyn Brooks (Rd 1)
Jordyn Brooks made 2019 All Big 12 First Team. Brooks is fast and is all over the field. He is a sure tackler and closes gaps quickly. He was used to blitz and as a quarterback spy. By week 11 of 2019 no linebacker in the country has more total QB pressures than Brooks, despite rushing the passer only 86 times this year (26th-most). He is an unknown in pass coverage as he was not used much in that role.
San Francisco 49ers – 2
DT Javon Kinlaw (Rd 1)
Javon Kinlaw earned an 88.7 pass rushing grade from Pro Football Focus in 2018. That was the highest of any defensive tackle in this past draft class. In 2019 he went up to a 90.7 which was the 2nd highest in the draft class among defensive tackles.In addition to ten sacks and 15 tackles for loss over the last two seasons, Kinlaw also has seven passes defended.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (Rd 1)
One of the tops in yards after the catch. As reported on PFF he averaged 9.9 yards after the catch for his career which is tops in this draft class. Aiyuk was thirteenth in receiving plays of 30+ yards and tie for fifth in 40+ yard plays with nine. His combine forty was decent at 4.5 and within targets for wide receivers. However he showed his explosiveness in the vertical jump (40″ and fifth among WRs) and the broad jump (10’8″ and sixth). Only Peoples-Jones, Ruggs and Reagor did better in both events. Aiyuk has a background as a running back and it shows. Aiyuk had the sixth longest arm length among combine receivers though he is only 5’11” and change. His 1,192 receiving yards in 2019 was a 36.8% team market share. Historical data shows that 95% of 5-time Pro Bowl players reached that amount
NFC North
The Detroit Lions have the best projected rookie roster in the NFC North with blue chip rookie Jeff Okudah.
Green Bay Packers – 1
FB Josiah Deguara (Rd 3)
Josiah Deguara is a tough blue collar player that plays with unbelievable hustle and competitive toughness. He once chased down an interception 70 yards downfield to prevent a pick six. He was 2019 All AAC First Team after making the 2018 Second Team. Deguara was tie for fourth among tight ends in 2019 for touchdowns with seven. He is good at both blocking and receiving.
Minnesota Vikings – 2
WR Justin Jefferson (Rd 1)
In 2019 Justine Jefferson was tie for number one in the FBS in receptions and was third in receiving yards. With that large production 59% of his receptions made first down. Jefferson was second in receiving touchdowns with 18. According to Pro Football Focus Jefferson had the second most missed tackles from the slot and the best explosive plays of 15+ yards from the inside. His contested catch rate of 92.3% ranked first among 98 draft eligible pass catchers who saw at least 10 contested targets.
CB Jeff Gladney (Rd 1)
Jeff Gladney was a 2019 All Big 12 First team selection. Gladney simply flies around on the field with great change of direction ability. He sticks to receivers and has great man coverage skills. He has good length and uses it to impede throwing areas. Gladney has more career forced incompletions on third down than any draft eligible cornerback.
Chicago Bears – 1
TE Cole Kmet (Rd 2)
Cole Kmet has good hands and the ability for inline blocking. His production has not matched up with an early round draft pick. His highest season yardage was 515 yards in his last year.
Detroit Lions – 1
CB Jeff Okudah (Rd 1)
In his 27 games over the past two years, Okudah hasn’t allowed more than 50 yards in a single game. He’s the only Power-5 cornerback to play at least 10 coverage snaps in 15 or more games and accomplish that feat. He’s seen 93 targets when lined up at outside corner since 2018 and has allowed a first down on just 20% of those targets — over 13 percentage points below the FBS average — to lead all corners who have played in both seasons. He never allowed more than 50 percent of the passes into his coverage to be completed during his three years.
NFC East
The best projected starting rookie roster in the NFC East is the NY Giants.
Philadelphia Eagles – 1
WR Jalen Reagor (Rd 1)
Jalen Reagor excels at yards after the catch and getting separation with his speed and elusiveness. He played 80% outside and can play either outside or slot in the NFL. Though he struggled with focus drops he had zero career drops in the red zone. Over the past two years, Reagor has generated an explosive play of 15-plus yards on 51.6% of his catches — the second-highest rate in college football and nearly 20 percentage points above the FBS average. At 5’10” and a half Reagor is a smaller receiver but plays big.
Dallas Cowboys – 2
WR CeeDee Lamb (Rd 1)
CeeDee Lamb has all the traits you want in a WR1. He has great hands, toughness, yards after the catch ability and a great catch radius. He was third in average yards per reception and second in receiving plays of 20+ yards. While not the fastest receiver his speed is good enough.
FB Sewo Olonilua (UDFA)
In 2019 Sewo Olonilua had 22 rush attempts of third down and 1-3 yards to go. He made 72.7% of those attempts.Olonilua is a built powerful player. He ranked in the 88 percentile or better among combine halfbacks for height, weight, hand size and bench press.since 1999, He packs serious power into his blocks as a lead blocker. He shows great short area quickness and change of direction skills.
New York Giants – 3
OT Andrew Thomas (Rd 1)
A three year starter at Georgia, Thomas started as a true freshman and made 15 starts at right tackle. He was named to the Freshman All-American Teams by ESPN, USA Today and FWAA. He earned a PFF 76.7 pass-blocking grade that season and has seen his grade improve every year since. Thomas made the Coaches All-SEC First Team each of the next two years. He made the AP 2017 All-SEC Second Team and the 2019 First Team. He is ranked by Pro Football Focus as the Best All-Around Tackle Prospect for the draft – no one blends a run blocker and pass protector than Thomas per PFF. Recognized by draft network for his power and strength, football IQ and ability to recognize defenses, aggressive demeanor and physical length. Thomas had the second longest arm length among offensive linemen at the combine. He needs to attack lower, develop better footwork and refrain from being overly aggressive.
FS Xavier McKinney (Rd 2)
Xavier McKinney made 2019 All Sec First Team. He is a versatile athletic player with a high football IQ and good tackling skills. He played all over at Alabama – slot, deep zone and up at the line. He plays with great urgency. He has good coverage instincts and burst. Pro Football Focus has him earned grades of 84.7 in run defense, 90.9 as a pass-rusher, and 91.2 in coverage for his career. McKinney has actually improved his grade in every facet from 2018 to 2019.
OT Matt Peart (Rd 3)
Matt Peart allowed just seven total pressures in 2019 according to PFF. They gave him a grade of 90 which was eighth best among offensive tackles. He has ideal frame for a tackle at 6’7″ and 318 lbs. Peart has good mobility is scrappy. Matt needs time to work more on his blocking technique but has high potential.
Washington Football Team – 1
DE Chase Young (Rd 1)
You have to go back five years before you hit someone in the FBS that had more sacks per game than Young’s 1.38 in 2019. He is considered a nightmare to block one-on-one. Pro Football Focus released their All PFF-Era NFL Prospect Team of the best prospects they graded at each position over the last six years. Chase Young was selected with Myles Garrett at the Edge position. His 96.5 pass rushing grade this season was the highest they have given. NFL analyst Lance Zierlein said – ” Young possesses superior traits and the ability to wreck and alter offensive game-plans as a perennial All-Pro.”
NFC South
The nod for best rookie projected starting roster in the NFC South goes to the Buccaneers with Tristan Wirfs.He edges out Derrick Brown of the Panthers.
Atlanta Falcons – 2
CB A.J. Terrell (Rd 1)
Last season A.J. Terrell tied for the second-highest coverage grade from Pro Football Focus by a Power-5 cornerback in man coverage.He was a First-team All-ACC selection.
P Sterling Hofrichter (Rd 7)
Hofrichter was Syracuse’s starting punter for all 49 games from 2016-19. Four-time … He was one of three finalists for the Ray Guy Award as the nation’s top punter as a senior. Hofrichter made First Team All ACC the last two seasons.
New Orleans Saints – 1
OG/OC Cesar Ruiz (Rd 1)
Athletic and tenacious from whistle to whistle! Can fit multiple blocking schemes and flexibility to play center or guard. Hailed as the best Pass-Blocking center in the nation by PFF with 447 pass-blocking snaps and just 8 pressures allowed. 2018 All Big Ten Third Team Coaches, 2019 All Big Ten Second Team Coaches and Third Team Media. The seahawksdraftblog.com rated Ruiz as the third most explosive offensive lineman based on their Trench Explosion Formula (TEF) and the combine results and the fifth of weight allowance incorporated. Ruiz scored the same weighted TEF score as Quinton Nelson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1
OT Tristan Wirfs (Rd 1)
Tristan Wirfs was All Big Ten 2019 First Team. At the combine among offensive linemen he finished first in the forty, vertical jump and broad jump. The site seahawksdraftblog.com computes a weighted trench explosion formula based on combine results to measure player explosiveness. Tristan Wirfs had the highest score among offensive linemen and the highest score among offensive linemen for the last five years. Wirfs plays with outstanding power. Wirfs was a state champ as a high school wrestler.
Carolina Panthers – 3
DT Derrick Brown (Rd 1)
In 2019 Derrick Brown was a Consensus All-America and the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. He also won the Ronnie Lott Trophy. For each of the last three seasons Brown has had 3-4.5 sacks, 9.5-11.5 tackles for loss and 26-32 solo tackles. Brown excels in explosiveness and power.
SS Jeremy Chinn (Rd 2)
Jeremy Chinn had a great combine. Among safeties at the combine going back to 1999 Jeremy Chinn placed in the 90+ percentile for weight, height, broad jump and vertical jump. He was in the 86 percentile for his 4.45 seconds in the forty yard dash. Chinn played against poor competition at Southern Illinois. But he did earn an 88.5 run defense grade and am 82.4 coverage grade from Pro Football Focus. He allowed only 200 receiving yards on 340 coverage snaps. Chinn was a 2019 FCS Consensus All American.
PT Joseph Charlton (UDFA)
Joseph Charlton made the Pro Football Focus 2019 All SEC Second Team and their all American team Honorable Mention. He averaged 47.7 yards per punt, ranking third in the country. This improved from the prior season when he averaged 44.8 yards per punt and ranked 13th in the country.
In Summary And Rookie Of The Year
The division winners in projected rookie starting rosters are
| AFC | NFC |
| Jets | Cardinals |
| Jaguars | Lions |
| Bengals | Giants |
| Broncos | Buccaneers |
One month to go to the start of the season. It will be interesting to see who makes starting rookies and how they perform. Who will make Rookie of the Year? The NFL considers the Associated Press Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year as the official winners. Over the last five seasons the offensive award went to two quarterbacks and three running backs. It has never gone to an offensive lineman. The defensive award has varied more hitting every position. In April the William Hill odds favorites were Joe Burrow and Chase Young.
I don’t see Burrow winning it. Pro Football Focus ranked the Bengals offensive line going into 2020 as 31st in the league. To me as the offensive line goes so does the chances for rookie of the year. I would say the offensive rookie will be the first wide receiver to win it since O’dell Beckham in 2014. The Dallas offensive line was ranked as third best going into 2020. They have a star rookie wide receiver in CeeDee Lamb. That would be my pick on offense.
On defense I would stick with the favorite – Chase Young. He joins an already dangerous defensive line. Therefore teams cannot afford to heavily double team Young, He should have be in a good position to wreak havoc.
