With the combine starting and associated athletic numbers around the corner here are receiver prospect rankings based on career statistical data.
The table shown below is a relative ranking of 36 of what may be the top wide receiver prospects in the 2023 NFL draft. The list of prospects started with being listed in the top 100 on one of four nationally recognized draft big boards. Then some additional players were added. Sorry if I missed one of your guys. It does not indicate that they were not good enough just an oversight.
The ranking is relative. The grade is based on the best possible ranking of all 1s to the worst possible of all 36s equated to 1 to 100 with 100 being the best possible grade. Keep the nature of a rank and among the top receivers in mind. A poor grade only means they ranked low in this group of top receivers. The grades are not based on hard metrics such as your absolute catch rate but rather on the rankings of catch rates.
Here is a list of the categories that were ranked.
1st down/rec
Number of first downs divided by receptions. Ranked individually for both career and last year then the two individual ranksare added together with equal weight and ranked.
1st down/tgt
Number of first downs divided by targets. Ranked individually for both career and last year then added ranks with equal weight are ranked.
Catch yr
Catch rate for last year
Catch Car
Career catch rate
TD/Rec
Ranked Sum of ranks of Touchdowns per reception and touchdowns per targets for both last year and career. Four individual rankings summed to one and ranked.
TD/Game
Rank of Total career touchdowns divided by career games,
TMS
Rankings of Team market share of receiving yards for best season.
Yds/Rec
Rank of sum of rankings for Yards per reception for career and for last year.
Yds /Tgt
Rank of sum of rankings for yards per target for career and for last year.
Yds/Game
Rank of sum of rankings of yards per games for both career and for last year.
15+ Plays
Rank of number of 15+ plays in a season for best season of 15+ plays.
Car Yds
Career receiving yards. This was added to give added points to players that performed well for two or three seasons as opposed to one year wonders.
The spreadsheet has a worksheet Table that contains each player’s rank among the 36 players for each category. At the top there is a row called factor that allows each category to be given a factor to determine how much that category will contribute to the final ranking and grade. This is important to keep in mind when you first look at the table. The highest graded player is such based on the factors chosen. If and when you download the spreadsheet you can adjust the factors to put more weight on what you deem important. You can try various factors to get a feel for which players always are at the top. .
Receiver Prospects Spreadsheet Download
There is a factor row at the top of the Table worksheet where you can give a weight of any decimal value. I typically use a value from 0 to 1 for each category. A factor of 1 gives a full value to that category. You can see the factors I valued and from that list I created the Typed worksheet. That lists the top seven ranked receivers for each receiver type based on the factors I entered. You can download the spreadsheet and try your own factors. After you enter the factors you can select the player rows and sort by column B (grade).
For Jaxon Smith-Njigba I used his 2021 season as his last. His 2022 season was only three games and he was injured.
In the spreadsheet I added a worksheet of the top seven receivers in a factored ranking for each type of receiver position – X receiver, Z receiver and Y (or slot) receiver. Here is some good material on the web on the differences between X, Y and Z receivers.
https://www.sigscores.com/articles/reception-perception-perceived
This Giants fan had a nice concise description
https://giantsfans.net/message_board/index.php?topic=29847.0
Based on player characteristics and reports I grouped the top seven of each type into the various receiver positions. Blurbs on players pertain to rankings in this analysis unless otherwise noted.
Z receivers
Jordan Addison is the only receiver that ranked in the top half of the sample in every category. An all-round talent.
Jalin Hyatt had the highest percentage of touchdowns per target and per reception for both his career and his last year. Rounded off, 18% of his career receptions were touchdowns. Among active touchdown leaders that was the ninth highest percentage and second for over 100 receptions.
Charlie Jones had the third ranked career catch rate at 77% . In 2022 Charlie was targ eted 154 times and had only three drops.
Michael Wilson had the second ranked first downs to targets percentage when accounting both career and last year. Roughly 48% of his targets made first down in 2022 and for his career!
In 2022 Tyler Scott produced 9 touchdowns on 54 receptions for the second best rate in the sample. His rate for touchdowns on a career or yearly basis were both high. Also his touchdowns to target rate was high. Of his 9 touchdowns in 2022 three of them were from his team’s 21 to 39 yard line.
Ronnie Bell ranked 8th and 9th in yards per target and yards per reception respectively. That ranking was probably aided by his ability to get yards after the catch. Following the 2020 season PFF listed Bell with the best numbers in the Big Ten in yards after the catch with an average 9.9 yards.
Zay Flowers touchdown numbers per game, reception and targets were all very good. He holds the Boston College record for career and single season receiving touchdowns. His catch percentage numbers are an area that needs work.
Y Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba stands out in this factored view. He has a rare combination of good stats in all three categories of first downs, catch rate and yards per. Jaxon was tops in four categories – first downs to targets percentage, last year catch rate, receiving yards per targets and number of 15+ yards receiving plays. In 2021 sixty percent of Jaxon’s targets made first down!
Nathaniel Dell had the best touchdown numbers in the sample. Among active career leaders Dell has the second most career receiving touchdowns. In 2022 Dell had the most receiving touchdowns and the most receiving touchdowns per game. In this sample Dell had the most red zone touchdowns in 2022 with 14. That was the most by 5 touchdowns in the sample. Nathaniel led this sample by receiving yards per game and career receiving yards. At the Senior Bowl it was reported by some observers that he was virtually uncoverable. Even though diminutive in stature Dell has not missed a game in his college career as listed on cfbstats.com.
Josh Downs had the top team market share in receiving yards in this sample for his 2021 season in which he had 1335 receiving yards for a 40% team market share. Teams double teamed him or had bracket coverage on him and Downs was still able to beat that.
Marvin Mims was first in first downs per catch and yards per catch and second in yards per targets. In each of the last two seasons Marvin was in the top six in the FBS in average receiving yards. Marvin is first among active career leaders in yards per catch with 19.5 yards per catch.
Parker Washington has good first down numbers. The guy can move the chains. Since starting all 9 games as a true freshman in 2020, Parker has made at least one first down in every one of the 32 games he has played and averaged three.
Jalen Cropper had a good last year catching three quarters of his targets and with 43% of his targets making first down.
A Senior Bowl standout, Jayden Reed, was tops in career catch rate with an amazing 84%. This on an above average career receptions and targets.
X Receivers
Elijah Cooks ranked below the median in only one category – last season’s catch percentage. He is an anomaly in this sample as almost every board ranks him near the bottom of wide receivers. In case you missed the Hula Bowl, Elijah was a standout and had a 35 yard reception in the game. He was one of only five players in 2022 with 1,000 receiving yards, 10 receiving touchdowns and a 15 yard receiving average. His best category was 4th in receiving touchdowns per reception/targets. Among active career touchdown leaders Elijah is fifth among wide receiver draft prospects in touchdowns/reception.
Jake Bobo was a Shrine Bowl standout. He was recognized for catching virtually everything thrown to him. In the sample he ranked second in first downs per reception and third in first downs per targets, The sum of those individual ranks would put him second among this sample in first downs per rec/tgt, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
A.T. Perry shows good touchdown numbers. In 2021 he had five receiving touchdowns of 40+ yards. Plus he added another 10 shorter ones for a total of 15 on the year. That was third best in the nation. Perry is fifth on the active career leaders list for receiving touchdowns.
Xavier Hutchinson was ranked tenth in the sample in 15+ play season for his last year. In 2022 Xavier was third in the nation in receiving plays of 10+ yards.
Puka Nacua was ranked in the sample at 11th in both yards per reception and yards per target. Among active career leaders Puka ranks seventh in career yards per catch with 16.3 yards.
Quentin Johnston ranked 2, 4 and 8 in yds/rec, yds/tgt and yds/game respectively. Only Marvin Mims had the sum of those ranks less than Quentin.Among active career leaders Quentin ranks second in career yards per catch with a 19 yards average.
Keytaon Thompson was ranked sixth in 15+ play season. In 2021 he had 31 receiving plays of 15+ yards. In 2021 Keytaon took snaps at tight end, wide-out, in the slot, out at ‘X’, and under center. He amassed 1,220 yards from scrimmage with 973 receiving and 247 rushing.
