Here is a projected lineup for the Giants 2021 offensive 11 personnel and base defense.
The lineup would include four rookies
Round 1 WR Devonta Smith
Round 2 CB Eric Stokes
Round 3 LB Chazz Surratt
Round 4 OG Ben Cleveland
and a free agent signing of TE Jonnu Smith.
It all starts in the trenches – Keep Working the Line.
“The day we chose to play on the offensive line was the day we chose to live in the shadows We chose to be the first ones blamed and the last ones acknowledged We gave up the stars and limelight for humility and wins We are supposed to be men of violence yet to be protectors Anyone can run full speed, but we are the ones who stop his charge We bring the pail and the blue-collar to work, and we clock in We are the determining factor in a game So, when choosing this life, we know it gets real in the A and B gap”
Tackle Rookie Matt Peart played on only 15% of the offensive snaps. However he was the highest graded Giant offensive lineman by Pro Football Focus with a 69.7 grade. Him and Nate Solder should compete for the Right Tackle spot, I give the nod to Peart at this point due too his 2020 grade and potential for a longer Giant future.
In the Giants’ 17-12 win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13, Tackle Andrew Thomas earned an 87.1 grade from Pro Football Focus. That grade was the highest single-game grade for a first round rookie offensive tackle in the NFL up to week 13. Thomas had a tough start to the season but showed improvement in the second half of the season. In four of his last eight games he gave up zero sacks.During the first eight weeks of the 2020 season, he earned a 52 overall grade in pass blocking but in the second half, he landed at 62.7. His run blocking has always been a strength and he earned a grade of 73 or better in run-blocking in five games.
Center Nick Gates during the first six weeks of the season was ranked by PFF as 32nd of 35 centers. His 70.1 pass-blocking grade ranks 11th in the NFL since week 7 among qualified centers. Gates gave up zero sacks in 2020 and had 16 pressures. This was a position at which he had zero live reps to start the season, Nick Gates is the only Giant to play every snap on offense. Yet his 16 pressures was the least amount among the starting offensive linemen.
Guard Kevin Zeitler is the highest graded starter on the Giants offensive line. For the 2020 season PFF has Zeitler ranked 33 out of 80 guards. Zeitler played 98.8% of the offensive snaps. Zeitler allowed 28 pressures and two sacks.
Ben Cleveland was voted to the 2020 All SEC first team for coaches and AP. A strong lineman, Cleveland made Bruce Feldman’s 2020 college football Freaks List. Feldman specifically highlighted Cleveland’s strength, calling him, “one of the strongest men in football.” Cleveland is a mauler in the run game and always looking for someone to block. He plays with a nasty demeanor and is difficult to bull rush. It’s rare to see Cleveland moved backward on tape.
Strive To Assemble One Of The Best Giant Receiver Corps of Thirty Years
The 2011 Giant Super Bowl Team had the three top receivers in yards per target of the last thirty years. They were Victor Cruz (11.73 yds/target), TE Jake Ballard (9.9 yds/target) and Hakeem Nicks (8.96 yds/target). Those three averaged 10.2 yards per target. That is what the Giants should strive for in 2021.
To start draft WR Devonta Smith in the first round at pick 11. The site nflmockdraftdatabase.com has recently raised his projected selection to pick 8. As of 1/11 it was ranked at pick 11. They maintain a database of a consensus big board from data at numerous draft sites. Hakeem Nicks was a first round selection in the 2009 draft. His last season in college as a junior in 2008 was strikingly similar to that of Devonta Smith’s 2019 season. Both receivers were 6’1″ but Nicks had a definite weight advantage at 212 lbs to Smith’s 175 lbs. if DeVonta Smith has been selected by another team then Rashod Bateman is another potential prospect.
| Year | School | Conf | Class | Pos | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | |
| Hakeem Nicks | *2008 | North Carolina | ACC | JR | WR | 13 | 68 | 1222 | 18 | 12 |
| Devonta Smith | *2019 | Alabama | SEC | JR | WR | 13 | 68 | 1256 | 18.5 | 14 |
| Rashod Bateman | *2019 | Minnesota | Big Ten | SO | WR | 13 | 60 | 1219 | 20.3 | 11 |
Victor Cruz was a talented slot receiver that over his 2011 and 2012 seasons led the league in 3rd down production. Sterling Shepard is also a slot receiver that has similar 3rd/4th down conversion to targets numbers to Victor Cruz. In fact the numbers are eerily similar. Here are the Giants top conversion numbers from 1994 on 3rd and 4th down. Cruz and Shepard both played for five seasons.
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Ctch% | Yds | TD | 1D | 1d/Tgt |
| Steve Smith | 114 | 75 | 65.80% | 814 | 6 | 59 | 51.75% |
| Golden Tate | 59 | 36 | 61.00% | 523 | 3 | 30 | 50.85% |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 200 | 126 | 63.00% | 1647 | 18 | 100 | 50.00% |
| Victor Cruz | 161 | 100 | 62.10% | 1724 | 11 | 79 | 49.07% |
| Sterling Shepard | 161 | 97 | 60.20% | 1180 | 11 | 78 | 48.45% |
| Ike Hilliard | 203 | 114 | 56.20% | 1487 | 10 | 91 | 44.83% |
| Amani Toomer | 422 | 214 | 50.70% | 3042 | 25 | 183 | 43.36% |
Lastly the Giants should cut Evan Engram or get something in a trade. With the savings sign free agent tight end Jonnu Smith. Jonnu Smith had a 63% catch rate and a 4.6% drop rate. His 5.8 yards after the catch per reception was sixth best among tight ends. Smith’s eight receiving touchdowns was tie for fourth among tight ends. At 26 years old he is one of the youngest top tight ends available. It will probably cost $9 million a year but you would save $6 million by cutting Engram. There is also an eerily similarity between Jonnu Smith and Jake Ballard’s per game receiving statistics and yards per target numbers.
| Rk | Player | Age | Year | Lg | Tm | G | W | L | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Ctch% | Y/Tgt |
| 215 | Jonnu Smith | 24 | 2019 | NFL | OTI | 16 | 9 | 7 | 44 | 35 | 439 | 12.54 | 3 | 79.50% | 9.98 |
| 222 | Jake Ballard | 23 | 2011 | NFL | NYG | 14 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 38 | 604 | 15.89 | 4 | 62.30% | 9.9 |
Golden Tate is a valuable piece of the offense. His 3rd/4th down to target percentage is second best of all Giants since 1994. In 2019 his signature trait of yards after the catch shown thru. He was tops among Giant receivers in yards after the catch per reception. His 5.8 YAC was almost 2 yards more the the next wide receiver at 3,9 YAC. Tate took a step back in YAC in 2020. Prior to the 2020 season, over the prior five seasons, Tate led all wide receivers with 1,003 yards after the catch, over 300 yards more than the next highest player (Larry Fitzgerald, 674), according to Pro Football Focus.The Giants should see if 2020 was simply an anomaly.
Offensive Backfield – Higher Pass Completion and Rush Yards Per Attempt
The site vikingsterritory.com ranked the 2020 quarterbacks using a combination of passer rating, ESPN Quarterback rating and Pro Football Focus score. Daniel Jones came out 18th among the 31 quarterbacks that started eight games. That is pretty good for a second year quarterback. Jones drastically improved his worst statistic from 2019. His fumbles lost decreased from 11 in 2019 to 6 in 2020. Jones had a very good rookie year in 2019. He broke numerous Giants rookie quarterback records and broke or tied two NFL rookie records. Compared to rookie quarterbacks back to the 1970 merger, Daniel Jones ranked 17th in completion percent, 22nd in passing yards, 5th in passing touchdowns, 16th in passer rating, 19th in rushing yards and 16th in rushing yards per attempt. This out of 178 quarterbacks that had 100+ pass attempts their rookie season. His statistics on his 26 career starts compares above the 26 career starts of Peyton Manning, Josh Allen, Mathew Stafford, Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb. Pro Football Focus gave Daniel Jones a better grade in 2020 than they did for his 2019 season. Jones’ ESPN quarterback rating was also improved in 2020. However his passer rating declined. Giants co-owner John Mara has stated fixing the offense will be a focus of free agency and the NFL Draft. With an improved supporting team Jones should also improve.
In 2018 the Giants drafted running back Saquon Barkley. They also acquired left tackle Nate Solder as they recognized their weakness on the offensive line and started a multi-year effort to fix it. When you compare the Giants run game the three years prior to 2018 and the three years since there is a vast improvement. Here you can see the difference in this table sorted by rushing yards per attempt.
| Rk | Tm | Year | G | W | L | T | Att | Yds | TD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2018 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0.313 | 354 | 1650 | 4.66 | 13 |
| 2 | NYG | 2019 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0.250 | 362 | 1685 | 4.65 | 11 |
| 3 | NYG | 2020 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0.375 | 399 | 1768 | 4.43 | 13 |
| 4 | NYG | 2015 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0.375 | 403 | 1609 | 3.99 | 5 |
| 5 | NYG | 2017 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0.188 | 394 | 1549 | 3.93 | 6 |
| 6 | NYG | 2016 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0.688 | 398 | 1412 | 3.55 | 6 |
Not only are the last three years all significantly higher in yards per attempt, but also the rushing touchdowns and total rushing yards have all increased. The difference is even obvious in 2020 when Saquon Barkley was out for almost the entire season. From a run perspective the offensive line looks improved. In 2021 when Saquon returns the potential for a strong run game looks promising.
Saquon Barkley In his first 31 starts ranks 13th among running backs in yards from scrimmage all time in their first 31 starts. Among those top 100 backs in yards from scrimmage all time Barkley ranks 20th in yards per touch.
As far as Giants teams go they have recently been pretty good in pass completion percentage and rushing yards per attempt. In fact since 1940 only three Giant seasons had a pass completion percent of 62% and a yards per rush attempt of 4.4 yards. They include the 2018 and 2020 seasons.
| Rk | Tm | Year | G | W | L | T | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | Att | Yds | TD | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2020 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0.375 | 321 | 517 | 62.1 | 3026 | 12 | 11 | 50 | 310 | 79.6 | 399 | 1768 | 4.43 | 13 |
| 2 | NYG | 2018 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0.313 | 382 | 583 | 65.5 | 4047 | 23 | 12 | 47 | 358 | 92.7 | 354 | 1650 | 4.66 | 13 |
| 3 | NYG | 2010 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0.625 | 339 | 539 | 62.9 | 3885 | 31 | 25 | 16 | 117 | 85.3 | 480 | 2200 | 4.58 | 17 |
In the 2020 season only 13 teams met that criteria including the Giants. Of those 13 teams the Giants had the lowest pass completion percentage and the second lowest rushing yards per attempt. Among 35 qualifying 2020 quarterbacks Jones 62.5 completion percentage was 31st. Evan Engram helped contribute with the second most drops in the league with eleven. Shepard and Tate had only one each. If we can sign free agent tight end Jonnu Smith, he had only three drops. Daniel Jones had the tenth highest drop percentage in the league. Jones bad throw percentage was 21st in the league and his on target percentage was of 75% was 27th. This is an area hopefully for improvement. Beefing up the receiver corp with a drafted wide receiver and a new tight end would help. The Giants 4.4 yards per rush attempt was 13th in the league. This is a good number. Hopefully we will see an even better improvement with Saquon Barkley return.
That’s it on offense. As Mara stated the offense will be a focus on improvement in free agency and the draft. I think it stands as a talented group and with some enhancements in the offseason things look promising. I will write a future post on my defense presented at the top of this post.
On the divisional games this past weekend, that Chiefs vs Browns game was very good. I kind of wanted the Browns to win because I would like the multi Super Bowl win quarterbacks to be kept low until Eli makes the Hall Of Fame. However I found myself rooting for the Chiefs because Mahomes is a tough guy to root against. I really like that young man from his attitude, personality, toughness and skill. Then when Henne went in I was glad to see the backup do well and help get the win. He showed his own toughness in that 13 yard scamper. A good game all round. Enjoy the Championship games this weekend!
