The Giants are fighting for the division title with two games left on the schedule. A win against the Ravens this week with a loss by Washington keeps the Giants right in the race. The Ravens are also fighting for a wildcard spot. The point spread has the Ravens favored by 11. The Giants only had three games so far this season with a point spread against them of 11 points or more. Of those three games the Giants won one and lost the other two. One loss was by two points and the other had the Giants down by only four points going into the fourth quarter.
On paper the Ravens have the advantage in more players rated higher according to Pro Football Focus. The Ravens have 12 players ranked in the top third of the league compared to the Giants seven. Those twelve Ravens are nicely dispersed among one running back, two tight ends, two offensive tackles, two cornerbacks, one linebacker, two interior defensive linemen and two edge rushers. Four of the Giants seven players are interior defensive linemen. The others are one wide receiver, one cornerback and one linebacker.
The quarterback rankings have Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson about the same. Jones is ranked 16th among 39 quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson is ranked 17th. The Giants have faced two other mobile quarterbacks this year in Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray. The Giants did a good job of limiting their rushing production. They held Murray to his fourth lowest rushing yards per attempt at 3.62 for 47 yards. Russell Wilson fared better but the Giants won that game. Lamar Jackson has seven games of 5+ yards per rush attempt and five games of over 60 yards. He has six games with a rushing touchdown. Jackson has nine games with over a 90 quarterback rating. Daniel Jones has three and Colt McCoy has zero.
The Giants can play it close. They are tie at fifth in the league in the number of games this season decided by one score with nine games. There are just seven teams with nine or more games decided by a single score. In the last 20 seasons the Giants have had three games with a +11 point spread in which they won. One was this year against Seattle. The other two were in 2017 and 2002. They are one of seven teams to have 3+ wins with a +11 point spread. Miami and the Raiders lead the league with six such games.
The Ravens lead the league this season in rushing yards, rushing first downs, rushing attempts and rushing yards per attempt. They are second in rushing touchdowns. The Giants defense is sixth in the league in rushing yards allowed and rushing yards per attempt.The Ravens lead the league in games with 100+ rushing yards having achieved that in all their games this season. They are one of three teams to have four games with 200+ rushing yards. The Giants are one of nine teams to have seven games this season that the opponent had less than 100 yards rushing.
The Giants also want to run the ball. Every one of the Giants five wins this season the Giants had 100+ rushing yards, Their three losses when rushing for over 100 yards were by a combined 11 points. Since Wayne Gallman moved into the starting lineup in week eight he has averaged 4.57 yards per rush attempt. Gallman is also a receiving threat averaging 5.22 yards per reception. Wayne Gallman is eleventh in the league in yards after contact per rush attempt with 2.5 yards. He is twentieth in the league in rush attempts per broken tackles.The Ravens are seventeenth in rushing yards per attempt allowed.
Of the forty running backs with over 100 rushing attempts this season Gallman ranks 21st in first downs per rush attempt. The Ravens two backs of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards rank seventh and eight respectively. Add in that Lamar Jackson is twelfth in the league in rushing yards and first in yards per rush attempt for qualifying players. If Daniel Jones plays he is first in yards per rush attempt for non-qualifying players with over 15 attempts. This game has ground and pound written all over it on both sides.
Receiving wise, Sterling Shepard on the Giants provides a reliable receiver that has excelled in third down conversions. Here is a post on Shepard as one of the Giants most underrated players.
There have been four upsets this season with a 11+ point spread. The Giants had one of them against the Seahawks. Look for the Giants to make that two for the year. Go Giants! Enjoy the game!
