The league has become a pass happy league. Many tout that the old rules for winning games no longer apply. Here are four such “old rules” to win football games. History shows that the Giants would do well to improve by following these rules.
The following stats are taken for over the last four seasons. The reason is the team consists of players that have been on the Giants for only four or less seasons and it covers the head coaches of McAdoo and Shurmur. The exception is for yards per attempt which was taken for only over the last two seasons. That was because of the significant change by drafting Saquon.
Run the Ball – Yards Per Rush Attempt
Over the last two seasons the Giants were the only team that did not win a game when rushing for less than 3.7 yards per carry (0-12). The Giants had the second most losses in the league when rushing under 3.7 yards per carry. The number of attempts did not appear to be a contributing factor for the Giants. The 16 lowest games in rushing attempts had 9 with less than 3.7 yards/attempt and 7 with more. Across the league in 2018-2019 the record for rushing less than 3.7 yards per carry was 179-189-1. The average win percentage for these games was 0.486 compared to the Giants 0.000.
The best roster for rushing yards per attempt since the 1970 merger was the 2005-2008 team. In 2005-2007 they had only 3 games at less than 3.7 yards per attempt which was the least in a season. In 2008 they had their best yards per attempt (5.02) which was 32nd since the 1970 merger of all time yards per attempt. The offensive line those years consisted of Luke Petitgout, David Diehl, Shaun O’Hara, Chris Snee and Kareem McKenzie with Rich Seubert replacing Pettigout in 2007. Our running back Tiki Barber had 2 of his top 3 years in yards/attempt behind that line. The other back Brandon Jacobs had three of his top four years. The Giants had 11, 8, 10 and 12 wins over that time-frame. The Giant’s line consisted of players chosen in Rounds 1, 2, 3, 5 and two undrafted.
If Lemieux can convert to center and start the 2020 Giant offensive line could consist of players that were drafted (by various teams) in Rounds 1, 1, 1, 2 and 5 of the NFL draft.
The site sharpfootballstats.com analyzes rushing success per team. For the 2019 season the Giants averaged -3.2% below the league average for success on rushes. The league has changed with many rule changes that favor receivers and quarterbacks. The running game has been diminished. The Giants rush attempts in 2018 and 2019 have been the second and third lowest in Giants history since 1970. Each of those two seasons the Giants rush attempts ranked 29th in the league. That is not good use of a runner like Saquon Barkley. Dallas with Ezekiel Elliott ranked in the top ten in rush attempts.
Win the Turnover Battle – Turnover Margin
Over the last four seasons the Giants were one of seven teams that were undefeated when they had a plus 2 or better turnover margin (12-0). Their 12 such games was in a five way tie for 17th best in the league. They had a league low seven games with a plus one turnover margin and the lowest win percentage for those games of 0.143. They had the second most negative turnover margin games (34) and a win percentage of 0.176 for those games.
The stretch of best roster for takeaways since 1999 was the 2010-2012 teams. The Giants were in the top five of takeaways per game each year. The team’s roster included safeties Antrel Rolle, Kenny Phillips, Stevie Brown and Deon Grant. The corners included Corey Webster, Prince Amukamara and Terrell Thomas. The linebackers included Chase Blackburn, Mathias Kiwanuka and Michael Boley. The Edge rushers were Dave Tollefson, Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. The Giants had 10, 9 and 9 wins over that time-frame. The 2005 team was second best.
The Giants had four rookies over the last five seasons that had 2 interceptions or forced fumbles. They were Julian Love and Ryan Connelly in 2019, Eli Apple in 2016 and Landon Collins in 2015. The all time leaders have been Mathias Kiwanuka (2006), Gibril Wilson (2004) and Will Allen (2001) with four. New rookie Xavier McKinney was tie for third in the FBS for the 2018-2019 seasons in the sum of interceptions and forced fumbles with eleven. Rookie Darnay Holmes was tie for 25th with 5 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles in that time-frame. Free agent signing James Bradberry is one of thirteen players that have 8+ career interceptions and an active streak of an interception every season of their career.
Finish Strong – Fourth Quarter Margin
Over the last four seasons the Giants are dead last in 4th quarter score margin with a -166 over 64 games. Interesting to note the next worst teams are the Jets and then Miami. Whereas the Patriots are fourth best with +104 points, Dallas and Philly are sixth and seventh best.
The best Giant team post 1970 merger in fourth quarter margin was the 2005 team. That season second year quarterback Eli Manning had his best quarterback rating in the fourth quarter compared to other quarters that year. He had his second most touchdowns by quarter in the fourth quarter. He also had a 134 passer rating when trailing and less than two minutes to go. Tiki barber had his highest number of touchdowns in the 4th quarter that season with four which was double any other quarter. Sixth best was 2012.
Our head coach and offensive coordinator come from the Patriots and Cowboys. Both those teams were in the top five teams in fourth quarter score margin in 2019, However our defensive coordinator from Miami coached Miami which was the only team to finish worse than the Giants in 4th quarter score margin last season.
Control the Clock – Time Of Possession
Over the last four seasons the Giants are dead last in time of possession. The defensive yards allowed per play for 2017-2019 ranked 6th, 4th and 5th worst among Giant seasons since 1983. The best Giant season all time for time of possession was 2008. That season ranks 24th league wide since 1983 and was tops in the league that season. The Giants went 12-4 that year and led the league in rushing yards and rushing yards per attempt. Third best was 2010.
In 2019 league wide there were 249 drives of 12 plays and 6+ minutes.The win/loss record for those games was 126-86. The average drive had 6.5 run plays. Run the ball and eat the clock. The Giants haven’t been doing it. They were tie for 26th with nine drives of 12+ plays and only 5 of them lasted 6+ minutes.
It Has Worked Over The Last Decade
Here are teams for every year since 2009 that have had winning records with significant post season appearances that performed well in these four areas and were just average or worse in quarterback rating.
2018 – 2019 Ravens
Rush Yds/Att – 1st
Turnover Margin – 12th
4th Quarter Margin – 2nd
Time of Possession – 1st
Team Passer Rating – 13th (Joe Flacco/Lamar jackson)
Record: 24 – 8 (0.750)
Post Season: Playoffs 2 of the 2 seasons. Lost WC, Lost Div
2014 – 2017 Panthers
Rush Yds/Att – 11th
Turnover Margin – 6th
4th Quarter Margin – 29th
Time of Possession – 1st
Team Passer Rating – 21st (Cam Newton)
Record: 39-24 (0.617)
Post Season: Playoffs 3 of 4 seasons. Lost Divisional game, Lost Super Bowl, Lost WildCard
2015 Jets
Rush Yds/Att – 14th
Turnover Margin – 9th
4th Quarter Margin – 4th
Time of Possession – 10th
Team Passer Rating – 19th (Ryan Fitzpatrick)
Record: 10-6
Post Season: None
2013 Patriots
Rush Yds/Att – 9th
Turnover Margin – 8th
4th Quarter Margin – 2nd
Time of Possession – 17th
Team Passer Rating – 15th (Tom Brady)
Record: 12-4
Post Season: Playoff appearance. Lost Conference game
2012 Bears
Rush Yds/Att – 14th
Turnover Margin – 2nd
4th Quarter Margin – 7th
Time of Possession – 5th
Team Passer Rating – 23rd (Jay Cutler)
Record: 10-6
Post Season: None
2011 Ravens
Rush Yds/Att – 12th
Turnover Margin – 12th
4th Quarter Margin – 4th
Time of Possession – 11th
Team Passer Rating – 15th (Joe Flacco)
Record: 12-4
Post Season: Playoff appearance. Lost Conference game
2009 – 2010 Jets
Rush Yds/Att – 8th
Turnover Margin – 8th
4th Quarter Margin – 8th
Time of Possession – 3rd
Team Passer Rating – 29th (Mark Sanchez)
Record: 20 – 12
Post Season: Playoff appearance both seasons, Lost 2 Conference Championship games.
Since 2009 there were 76 team seasons where a team had a positive turnover margin, 3.5+ yards per rush attempt, a positive 4th quarter score margin and a high time of possession. Teams had a winning record in 67 of those seasons or 88% of the seasons. If you take the top half of the 76 games for passer rating and compare it to the bottom half the win percentage is not that different. In that case it would be a 71.6% average win percentage for the better passer ratings and a 64.6% for the worse passer ratings.
It Has Worked For The Giants
In the 2005 Giant’s season all four of these statistical targets were in the top ten among the league. The Giants were
- Third in Rushing Yards per Attempt
- Third in 4th Quarter Score Margin
- Fifth in Turnover Margin
- Ninth in Time of Possession
- 21st in Passer Rating
In spite of a low ranking in passer rating the Giants went 11-4 and won the division, It was their fifth best season since the 1970 merger in points differential and was tie for the sixth best win/loss record.
This in no way is a knock on Daniel Jones. He had a great rookie season in spite of the turnovers. I look forward to an even better season for Jones as he has been working on his fumble issue and with an improved offensive line. The idea is the Giants should also address these “old time” football rules for a season that will surprise the gloom and doom prognosticators in the media concerning the Giants.
These four rules are somewhat interconnected. If you have a good run game it helps to promote long drives and increased time of possession. Increased time of possession keeps your defense off the field as does turnovers. A more rested defense is stronger in the fourth quarter than one that lost the time of possession battle. It looks like the changes made for the offensive line, an overhauled coaching staff, resources invested in the secondary and a focus on preventing turnovers should help.
(This post is a modified copy of a post I had made on bigblueview.com while my site was down)
