Yards per Play both offensive and defensive allowed appear to be a good indicator of a team’s rank. Since the 1970 merger 70% of the Super Bowl participants had a regular season yards per play differential of +0.434 yards or more. That is the season difference of offensive yards per play minus the defensive yards per play allowed. That 70% compares significantly to the 22.6% of all teams during that period that were 0.434 yards or better.
The best team in defensive yards per play allowed since the 1970 merger is the 1970 Minnesota Vikings with 3.44 yards allowed. They were led by the dominant “Purple People Eaters” of the defensive line. The best team since the merger for offensive yards per play is the 2000 Rams with 6.98 yards. They were nicknamed “The Greatest Show On Turf” for their record breaking offense. The Vikings finished that 1970 season at 12-2 and the best record in the league. The Rams 2000 season ended with a 11-5 record and a loss in the NFC Championship Game.
The Giants are a completely new team from prior to the 2016 season. Sterling Shepard is the longest player on the roster and he was drafted in 2016. Given that I decided to look at league play with respect to yards per play from the 2016 season onward. Taking yards per play over the last four seasons you get the following results.
- No team in the top ten of win/loss percentage was in the bottom ten for either offensive or defensive yards per play.
- Eight of the top ten teams in win/loss percentage were in the top ten for yards per play for either offense or defense. The only exceptions were the Eagles and the Seahawks.
- Only two teams were in the top ten in yards per play for both offense and defense. They were the Cowboys and the Steelers. Both those teams also made the top ten in win/loss percentage.
- Only one team was in the bottom ten teams for win/loss percentage that was also in the top ten for offensive yards per play. That was the Buccaneers.
- Only two teams in the bottom ten for win/loss percentage were not in the bottom ten for either offensive or defensive yards per play. They are the Browns and the 49ers.
Here are the teams that overachieved in win/loss percentage compared to their standings in combined offensive and defensive yards per play. They are in ascending order of over-achievement. Shown with each team is their win/loss percentage and their sum of their rank in both offensive and defensive yards per play. That sum ranges from 2 to 64 with 64 being last in both. The average win/loss percentage would be 50%. These teams given their rank in offensive and defensive yards per play should have had a worse win/loss record.
Recent Four Season Over-Achievers Per Yds/Play
| Rank | Team | Win/Loss Percent | Sum Offensive & Defensive Rank in Yds / Play |
| 9 | Lions | 43% | 46 |
| 8 | Saints | 69% | 24 |
| 7 | Seahawks | 63% | 28 |
| 6 | Eagles | 59% | 36 |
| 5 | Panthers | 45% | 46 |
| 4 | Dolphins | 44% | 57 |
| 3 | Colts | 45% | 50 |
| 2 | Texans | 53% | 43 |
| 1 | Packers | 57% | 41 |
The bottom ten under-achievers in increasing order of under-achievement are presented in the following table. These are teams that given their rank in offensive and defensive yards per play should have had a better win/loss record over the last four seasons.
Recent Four Season Under-Achievers Per Yds/Play
| Rank | Team | Win/Loss Percent | Sum Offensive & Defensive Rank in Yds / Play |
| 23 | Cowboys | 63% | 13 |
| 24 | Titans | 56% | 21 |
| 25 | Bears | 44% | 28 |
| 26 | Buccaneers | 41% | 36 |
| 27 | Cardinals | 38% | 40 |
| 28 | Broncos | 42% | 33 |
| 29 | Jaguars | 38% | 34 |
| 30 | Chargers | 48% | 17 |
| 31 | Browns | 23% | 38 |
| 32 | 49ers | 39% | 24 |
The 49ers’ record was 12-36 for 2016-2018. However in 2019 they achieved 6+ yards per play on offense and allowed less than 5 yards per play on defense. They were the only team to achieve that metric in any season since 2016. To show how rare that is it occurred just two other times in the last decade. That was the 2014 Broncos and the 2010 Chargers. The 2019 49ers made it to the Super Bowl.
In 2019 another rare statistical occurrence was achieved in a bad way. The 2019 Bengals and Dolphins were the only teams in the last decade to achieve less than 5 yards per play on offense and allow more than 6 yards per play on defense. The Bengals had the first pick in the 2020 NFL draft. The Dolphins made my top ten over-achievers as the finished 5-11.
The 2019 Dallas Cowboys rank 10th in offensive yards per play among all seasons since the 1970 merger. Yet they only went 8-8 for the season. That may have contributed to the coaching change for 2020.
The teams that were closest to where they should be ranked for 2016-2019 in win/loss percentage based on yards per play were the
Rams (58% – 25)
Bengals (34% – 53)
Falcons (55% – 27)
The best Giants team for offensive yards per play post merger was the 2011 Super Bowl team with 5.99 yards per play. The best Giants team for defensive yards per play allowed was the 1985 team which allowed 4.22 yards per play. It was Bill Belichick’s first year as defensive coordinator. The defense had Lawrence Taylor, Leonard Marshall, Harry Carson, Elvis Patterson and Terry Kinard.
In 2019 the Giants top five games in offensive yards per play included their four wins. There did not appear to be a correlation with defensive yards per play. Their four wins were evenly distributed among ascending yards per play allowed.
Here is the 2019 season sorted by offensive yards per play descending. You can sort by defensive yards per play by clicking the DY/P column header.
2019 Season Team Yards Per Play
| Rk | Tm | W | L | T | W-L% | Y/P | DY/P |
| 1 | DAL | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.500 | 6.4584 | 5.1547 |
| 2 | KAN | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0.750 | 6.2162 | 5.3634 |
| 3 | BAL | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0.875 | 6.1288 | 5.2215 |
| 4 | TEN | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0.563 | 6.117 | 5.447 |
| 5 | SFO | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0.813 | 6.0247 | 4.6581 |
| 6 | NOR | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0.813 | 5.9169 | 5.3343 |
| 7 | LAC | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0.313 | 5.8967 | 5.4269 |
| 8 | OAK | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0.438 | 5.8837 | 5.8951 |
| 9 | TAM | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0.438 | 5.8619 | 5.1286 |
| 10 | MIN | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0.625 | 5.8309 | 5.1899 |
| 11 | SEA | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0.688 | 5.7275 | 6.0217 |
| 12 | HOU | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0.625 | 5.6952 | 6.0912 |
| 13 | LAR | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0.563 | 5.6853 | 5.1458 |
| 14 | CLE | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0.375 | 5.6064 | 5.7051 |
| 15 | ATL | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0.438 | 5.5429 | 5.7797 |
| 16 | ARI | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0.344 | 5.467 | 5.9556 |
| 17 | DET | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0.219 | 5.4349 | 5.8556 |
| 18 | GNB | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0.813 | 5.4196 | 5.6533 |
| 19 | JAX | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0.375 | 5.3608 | 6.013 |
| 20 | NYG | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0.250 | 5.3518 | 5.6899 |
| 21 | PHI | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0.563 | 5.2283 | 5.4881 |
| 22 | BUF | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0.625 | 5.1896 | 4.8447 |
| 23 | NWE | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0.750 | 5.1726 | 4.6561 |
| 24 | IND | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0.438 | 5.1555 | 5.6278 |
| 25 | CAR | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0.313 | 5.078 | 5.7505 |
| 26 | DEN | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0.438 | 5.0073 | 5.3759 |
| 27 | WAS | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0.188 | 4.9661 | 5.7108 |
| 28 | CIN | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0.125 | 4.9276 | 6.0919 |
| 29 | MIA | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0.313 | 4.8532 | 6.0437 |
| 30 | PIT | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.500 | 4.7257 | 4.7243 |
| 31 | CHI | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.500 | 4.6559 | 5.0993 |
| 32 | NYJ | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0.438 | 4.569 | 4.9855 |
Forty-seven days to the Hall Of Fame Game and the unofficial start of the NFL season.
