With the 2020 season in the books for the Giants lets take a look at the Giant’s team offense for 2020 and how they performed. Also a look ahead for each position group on offense.
Receivers
The 2020 Giant receivers are a significantly better than they are generally given credit to.
The top ten receiving corps listed in this nfl.com article appeared to be a reasonable list. The teams are Tampa, Atlanta, Buffalo, Houston, Seattle, Dallas, LA Chargers, Carolina, Cincinnati and Arizona. Comparing the top three receivers on these teams to the Giants in terms of total first downs per target and 3rd down conversions per target the Giants compare favorably. In terms of the average 1st down to target percentage the top ten teams range from 39.86% to 48.64%. The top three Giants receivers averaged 39.77%. The average difference between the Giants and the ten teams was only a 3.64% difference. That would be less than 4 additional first downs on 100 targets. Here are the players and the Giants sorted by 1st down/target for all downs.
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Ctch% | Yds | TD | 1D | 1d/tgt |
| Julio Jones | 68 | 51 | 75.00% | 771 | 3 | 36 | 52.94% |
| Chris Godwin | 84 | 65 | 77.40% | 840 | 7 | 43 | 51.19% |
| Will Fuller | 75 | 53 | 70.70% | 879 | 8 | 38 | 50.67% |
| Mike Evans | 109 | 70 | 64.20% | 1006 | 13 | 55 | 50.46% |
| Cole Beasley | 107 | 82 | 76.60% | 967 | 4 | 53 | 49.53% |
| D.K. Metcalf | 129 | 83 | 64.30% | 1303 | 10 | 63 | 48.84% |
| Tee Higgins | 107 | 67 | 62.60% | 908 | 6 | 52 | 48.60% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 160 | 115 | 71.90% | 1407 | 6 | 75 | 46.88% |
| Calvin Ridley | 143 | 90 | 62.90% | 1374 | 9 | 65 | 45.45% |
| Russell Gage | 110 | 72 | 65.50% | 786 | 4 | 50 | 45.45% |
| D.J. Moore | 118 | 66 | 55.90% | 1193 | 4 | 53 | 44.92% |
| Antonio Brown | 61 | 45 | 73.80% | 483 | 4 | 27 | 44.26% |
| Stefon Diggs | 166 | 127 | 76.50% | 1535 | 8 | 73 | 43.98% |
| Gabriel Davis | 62 | 35 | 56.50% | 599 | 7 | 27 | 43.55% |
| Tyler Lockett | 132 | 100 | 75.80% | 1054 | 10 | 57 | 43.18% |
| Brandin Cooks | 119 | 81 | 68.10% | 1150 | 6 | 51 | 42.86% |
| Michael Gallup | 105 | 59 | 56.20% | 843 | 5 | 44 | 41.90% |
| Darius Slayton | 96 | 50 | 52.10% | 751 | 3 | 40 | 41.67% |
| Randall Cobb | 48 | 38 | 79.20% | 441 | 3 | 20 | 41.67% |
| Amari Cooper | 130 | 92 | 70.80% | 1114 | 5 | 54 | 41.54% |
| Keenan Allen | 147 | 100 | 68.00% | 992 | 8 | 61 | 41.50% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 111 | 74 | 66.70% | 935 | 5 | 46 | 41.44% |
| Mike Williams | 85 | 48 | 56.50% | 756 | 5 | 35 | 41.18% |
| Sterling Shepard | 90 | 66 | 73.30% | 656 | 3 | 37 | 41.11% |
| Curtis Samuel | 97 | 77 | 79.40% | 851 | 3 | 39 | 40.21% |
| Tyler Boyd | 110 | 79 | 71.80% | 841 | 4 | 43 | 39.09% |
| David Moore | 47 | 35 | 74.50% | 417 | 6 | 18 | 38.30% |
| Christian Kirk | 79 | 48 | 60.80% | 621 | 6 | 30 | 37.97% |
| Golden Tate | 52 | 35 | 67.30% | 388 | 2 | 19 | 36.54% |
| Robby Anderson | 136 | 95 | 69.90% | 1096 | 3 | 49 | 36.03% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 72 | 54 | 75.00% | 409 | 1 | 25 | 34.72% |
| A.J. Green | 104 | 47 | 45.20% | 523 | 2 | 34 | 32.69% |
Looking at third and fourth down conversions to third down targets the Giants receivers compare even better. The Giants average for its three receivers would come in eighth among the top ten teams. Their average on third down reception conversions is better than three of the top ten receiving corps. Their 50.6% is better than Carolina, Dallas and Arizona. When you sort the players in the top ten receiving corps two Giants fall in the top half. Here are the players sorted by 3rd/4th down conversions per 3rd/4th down targets.
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Ctch% | Yds | TD | 1D | 1d/tgt |
| Cole Beasley | 21 | 17 | 81.00% | 183 | 1 | 15 | 71.43% |
| Will Fuller | 17 | 13 | 76.50% | 206 | 2 | 12 | 70.59% |
| Antonio Brown | 18 | 14 | 77.80% | 162 | 2 | 12 | 66.67% |
| Calvin Ridley | 35 | 25 | 71.40% | 359 | 5 | 22 | 62.86% |
| Tee Higgins | 26 | 18 | 69.20% | 302 | 1 | 16 | 61.54% |
| Keenan Allen | 46 | 33 | 71.70% | 353 | 6 | 28 | 60.87% |
| Tyler Lockett | 25 | 18 | 72.00% | 157 | 3 | 15 | 60.00% |
| Julio Jones | 17 | 12 | 70.60% | 184 | 2 | 10 | 58.82% |
| Chris Godwin | 28 | 19 | 67.90% | 271 | 2 | 16 | 57.14% |
| Golden Tate | 25 | 18 | 72.00% | 219 | 0 | 14 | 56.00% |
| Brandin Cooks | 25 | 16 | 64.00% | 212 | 2 | 14 | 56.00% |
| Tyler Boyd | 33 | 22 | 66.70% | 301 | 3 | 18 | 54.55% |
| Gabriel Davis | 13 | 7 | 53.80% | 83 | 2 | 7 | 53.85% |
| David Moore | 17 | 11 | 64.70% | 113 | 2 | 9 | 52.94% |
| Sterling Shepard | 26 | 17 | 65.40% | 155 | 1 | 13 | 50.00% |
| Russell Gage | 44 | 28 | 63.60% | 310 | 1 | 22 | 50.00% |
| Curtis Samuel | 36 | 29 | 80.60% | 349 | 1 | 18 | 50.00% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 46 | 28 | 60.90% | 355 | 4 | 22 | 47.83% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 42 | 28 | 66.70% | 384 | 2 | 20 | 47.62% |
| Stefon Diggs | 42 | 29 | 69.00% | 285 | 1 | 20 | 47.62% |
| Mike Evans | 30 | 18 | 60.00% | 219 | 5 | 14 | 46.67% |
| Amari Cooper | 28 | 16 | 57.10% | 168 | 3 | 13 | 46.43% |
| D.K. Metcalf | 41 | 24 | 58.50% | 348 | 4 | 19 | 46.34% |
| Randall Cobb | 13 | 8 | 61.50% | 129 | 2 | 6 | 46.15% |
| Darius Slayton | 24 | 12 | 50.00% | 202 | 2 | 11 | 45.83% |
| Mike Williams | 34 | 19 | 55.90% | 333 | 2 | 15 | 44.12% |
| D.J. Moore | 32 | 16 | 50.00% | 267 | 1 | 14 | 43.75% |
| A.J. Green | 35 | 15 | 42.90% | 167 | 1 | 13 | 37.14% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 20 | 14 | 70.00% | 97 | 0 | 7 | 35.00% |
| Robby Anderson | 32 | 19 | 59.40% | 187 | 2 | 10 | 31.25% |
| Christian Kirk | 20 | 8 | 40.00% | 137 | 1 | 6 | 30.00% |
| Michael Gallup | 28 | 13 | 46.40% | 134 | 0 | 8 | 28.57% |
From a target view Sterling Shepard matches up well with these top receivers. Shepard had 90 targets in only 12 games he played. Extrapolated out for a full season would be 122 targets.That would rank ninth on the list of 132 receivers. Shepard is reported to get 3 yards of separation on average. That is tops on the Giants and tie for 38th in the league among wide receivers, Slayton at 2.3 yards and Tate at 2.1 yards of separation also have lower target numbers, They come in in the low 20s rank out of these 33 top receivers for targets.
The Giants receiver corp improved 4% from the 2019 1st downs per targets percent and 3rd/4th down conversions per 3rd/4th down targets percentages.
Looking Ahead
The one area the Giants receivers did poorly is in receiving touchdowns. The Giants were ranked 22nd in number of passing plays in the red zone. However they were 30th in number of passing touchdowns in the red zone. Perhaps picking Terrace Marshall in round two of the draft would help this problem. Marshal has had 23 touchdowns over 19 games of the last three seasons. Fifteen of his nineteen red zone receptions were touchdowns in that time frame. Also is DeVonta Smith is available at 11 in the first round that would be a good pick. Smith led the NCAA in receiving touchdowns in 2020 and was fifth in 2019.
Quarterback
The sophomore slump hit Daniel Jones in year two. According to this 2019 blog post study by the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective the sophomore slump does exist. The good news is that according to their study quarterbacks that performed above average their first year consistently on average perform better than other quarterbacks for every single year in their career. Notable quarterbacks that experienced a sophomore slump include Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Dak Prescott, Vince Young, Drew Brees, Steve Young, Sam Bradford, Baker Mayfield and Fran Tarkenton.
In his 2019 rookie season compared to rookie quarterbacks back to the 1970 merger, Daniel Jones ranked 17th in completion percent, 22nd in passing yards, 5th in passing touchdowns, 16th in passer rating, 19th in rushing yards and 16th in rushing yards per attempt. This out of 178 quarterbacks that had 100+ pass attempts their rookie season. Jones had five 300+ passing yards games and four games with 4+ touchdowns. He was the first rookie to have three games with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. He was tied for the most passing touchdowns in a single game by a rookie quarterback: 5.
In his second year though he started two more games his passing yards decreased by 80 yards, his passing touchdowns from 24 to 11 and his passer rating from 87 to 80. He struggled with injury that had him miss two games. Yet his rushing yards per game increased from 21 to 30 and his rushing yards per attempt from 6.2 to 6.5. His completion percentage went up 0.6% and his interception percentage went down 0.4%. His on target percentage went from 71% to 75%. His receiver drop percentage increased from 3.8% to 5.3%. His fumbles decreased from 18 to 11. As stated above the same Giants receiver corp improved 4% from the 2019 1st downs per targets percent and 3rd/4th down conversions per 3rd/4th down targets percentages.
Here is a comparison of Daniel Jones’ first 26 starts to those of seven other highly regarded quarterbacks of the last two decades. The statistics were sorted and color codes as 1st (yellow), 2nd (blue), 3rd (green) and fourth (orange). A point value was assigned to each color with first being the highest. The sums were totaled in the sum column. Of the eight quarterbacks Daniel Jones falls into the second highest sum for top statistics. The statistics show passing statistics, followed by rushing statistics (starting at 2nd Att) and then fumble statistics. The TO column is turnovers which is the sum of interceptions and fumbles lost.
| Player | To | Tm | G | W-L% | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | Sk | Y/A | AY/A | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | Fmb | FL | FR | TO | Sum |
| Matt Ryan | 2009 | ATL | 26 | 0.615 | 469 | 778 | 60.28 | 5716 | 32 | 23 | 84.3 | 31 | 7.35 | 6.84 | 82 | 152 | 1.85 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 23 |
| Daniel Jones | 2020 | NYG | 26 | 0.308 | 561 | 903 | 62.13 | 5953 | 35 | 22 | 84.1 | 83 | 6.59 | 6.27 | 109 | 697 | 6.39 | 3 | 28 | 16 | 6 | 38 | 20 |
| Peyton Manning | 1999 | CLT | 26 | 0.423 | 528 | 912 | 57.89 | 6493 | 46 | 38 | 79.4 | 30 | 7.12 | 6.25 | 37 | 86 | 2.32 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 40 | 17 |
| Josh Allen | 2019 | BUF | 26 | 0.577 | 431 | 761 | 56.64 | 5084 | 30 | 21 | 78.8 | 63 | 6.68 | 6.23 | 194 | 1115 | 5.75 | 17 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 16 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2011 | DET | 26 | 0.423 | 585 | 989 | 59.15 | 6556 | 48 | 35 | 80.4 | 57 | 6.63 | 6.01 | 43 | 187 | 4.35 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 15 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2001 | PHI | 26 | 0.577 | 503 | 876 | 57.42 | 5184 | 38 | 21 | 79.1 | 75 | 5.92 | 5.71 | 144 | 967 | 6.72 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 29 | 11 |
| Drew Brees | 2003 | SDG | 26 | 0.346 | 510 | 854 | 59.72 | 5295 | 27 | 31 | 73.1 | 42 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 54 | 212 | 3.93 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 34 | 6 |
| Eli Manning | 2006 | NYG | 26 | 0.5 | 461 | 858 | 53.73 | 5632 | 38 | 31 | 73.9 | 49 | 6.56 | 5.82 | 36 | 115 | 3.19 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 34 | 4 |
After 26 starts Daniel Jones compares very favorably to some highly regarded quarterbacks. Next season will be another important one for evaluation of Daniel Jones. Is he a “franchise” quarterback? The rookie year coupled with a two year comparison of top quarterbacks looks very promising. In addition Jones has the intangibles that you like to see in a “franchise” quarterback – hard-working, great work ethic, competitive, fearless, leadership, team-oriented and humble. He shared many of these characteristics with Eli Manning.
Looking Ahead
““I’ve been watching the NFL Draft my entire life –– I don’t get why teams don’t draft a quarterback every year or every other year.” – Colin Cowherd (sports analyst).
If believe in that philosophy the Giants could draft Kellen Mond of Texas A&M in the top of the sixth round. Mond is a dual threat quarterback with 9,600 career passing yards and a 71 touchdowns to 27 interceptions career ratio. He is a four year starter and his completion percentage increased every year ending with 63.3% in 2020. He has rushed for a career 1600 yards and 22 touchdowns. At 6’3″ he has prototypical QB size. According to his Texas A&M media reported John Harris, Mond is a tough, hard-working quiet leader.
Tight End
Evan Engram has come under fire among the Giants fans for his frustrating habit of dropping the pass in a way that appear to facilitate an interception. It happened again in the recent Dallas game. There have been six interceptions when Engram has been targeted. Evan Engram is second in the league in highest number of drops with 11 on the season. His drop percentage to targets is a little better at only seventh worst in the league with a 10.1%. It is the worst drop percentage among tight ends.
On some positive notes Engram is second on the Giants in separation with an average 2.9 yards per target. That is only 0.1 yard behind the leader Sterling Shepard. Engram was the second most targeted Giant per game trailing only Sterling Shepard.
Engram is the fourth most targeted tight end in the league but he is twelfth in first downs and eighth in receiving yards.Engram does lead the Giants receivers in yards after the catch per reception with an average 4.6 yards. However that is only fifteenth amongst tight ends. Engram’s catch percentage of 57.8% is 41st among tight ends in the league.
Looking Ahead
At $6 million Engram is the 11th highest cap hit on the Giants for 2021. That is the last year of his contract. Engram has made the Pro Bowl this season. If the Giants can get some trade value for Engram this looks like something they should do. If no buyers the Giants should then consider cutting him and look to get a tight end in the draft.
A sixth round pick of TE Cary Angeline may be good. Angeline had 11 receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons and averaged 15.7 yards per reception over 61 career receptions. He had a 14.3% team market share receiving yards in 2020 which is just shy of the 15% indicative of long-term starting players. At 6’7″ and 250 lbs, Angeline provides a big target with soft hands and a willing blocker.
You could also go first round with Kyle Pitts. Pitts became just the third FBS tight end since 1996 to post 150-plus receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns in a game. Urban Meyer said he may be the best non-quarterback player in the country. He is currently third in the nation in receiving touchdowns. He is 6-6, 240 lbs and has blazing speed.
In Round two I like TE Brevin Jordan. Last season Brevin Jordan had 495 receiving yards which was good for a 15.3% team market share. That percentage is indicative that 98% of long-term starting tight end players reached this level of market share production since 1969. Jordan is a monster in yards after the catch. Thirteen of his 35 receptions in 2019 (37 percent) included at least 10 yards of additional yardage after the catch. Thru September 9th this season Jordan was first among ACC tight ends in yards after the catch (313) and plays of 15+ yards (15).
In free agency Titan Jonnu Smith is an attractive prospect. He had a 63% catch rate and a 4.6% drop rate. His 5.8 yards after the catch per reception was sixth best among tight ends. Smith’s 8 receiving touchdowns was tie for fourth among tight ends. At 26 years old he is one f the youngest top tight ends available. It will probably cost $9 million a year but you would save $6 million by cutting Engram.
Running Back
The running backs filling in for an injured Saquon Barkley have performed well in 2020, Dion Lewis has made a first down on 26.3% of his targets/attempts. That ranked 37th among 101 backs with 5+ rushing first downs. Out of 57 targets/attempts Lewis made 15 first downs. In addition Lewis had three touchdowns. Wayne Gallman made first down on 23.1% of his attempts/targets. That ranked 61 out of 101 backs. On 160 attempts/targets Gallman made 37 first downs. In addition Gallman had five rushing touchdowns. Alfred Morris made first down on 25.4% of his attempts/targets. That ranked 45th among 101 backs. On 59 attempts/targets he had 15 first downs. Even in Saquon Barkley’s stellar rookie year he made first down on only 21.5% of his attempts/targets. However Barkley had many more attempts/targets.
Saquon Barkley should return in 2021. In their first 31 starts Barkley ranks 13th among running backs in yards from scrimmage all time. Among the top 100 backs in yards from scrimmage all time Barkley ranks 20th in yards per touch.
Looking Ahead
The Giants should keep the running back corp intact. They should resign Gallman, Morris and Lewis who are all free agents. In addition resign free agent DeVonta Freeman. No other changes are needed.
Offensive Line
Pro Football Focus ranked the offensive lines for the 2020 season and the Giants came in at 31st. The highest rated starter on the line was guard Kevin Zeitler with a 65.9 grade. He was ranked 31st out of 84 guards. Rookie Andrew Thomas ranked 60th out of 83 tackles. According to PFF Thomas allowed 57 pressures and 10 sacks. The most by any player at that position. Rookie Matt Peart was a bright spot. When he did fill in he was rated at 69.7.
Looking Ahead
Offensive tackle is one of the deep talented positions in the 2021 draft. The Giants should look to take advantage of that and draft a tackle. They could use depth and the Giants should plan to draft an offensive lineman each year until they turn this line around.
In round three I like OT Abraham Lucas of Washington State. As reported by Pro Football Focus, in 2019 Abraham Lucas gave up just 14 pressures on 786 pass-blocking snaps for under 2%. As a redshirt freshman in 2018 Lucas made the USA Today and Athletic Freshman All America Team. For his 2019 season Lucas was rated the best pass-blocking OT in the country and rated 4th-best overall OT in the country. At 6’7″ and 328 lbs Lucas would be the biggest offensive lineman on the Giants.
In Round 2 I like OT Liam Eichenberg. As of the end of October, Liam’s 93 overall grade from Pro Football Focus was the third highest in the country. Liam is a three year starter at left tackle on the Notre Dame offensive line. He started all 13 games in 2018 when Notre Dame was a semi-finalist for the Joe Morrow Award given to the nation’s top offensive line.
Offensive Coordinator
I said before the Dallas game that if the Giants beat Dallas that I would be okay with keeping Jason Garrett as the OC. I do not like the idea of giving Daniel Jones his third offensive coordinator in three seasons. Jones has expressed positive comments about working with Garrett and learning a lot from him. Daniel Jones did drastically reduce his fumbles from his rookie season. Starting two more games in 2020 his turnovers decreased from 23 in 2019 to 16 in 2020.
If Garrett takes a head coaching job somewhere else then a candidate I would like to see interviewed for OC would be Jaguar OC Jay Gruden. He’s had success as OC on the Bengals in 2011-2013. In that time-frame their offensive standing improved each year. Gruden has had success with developing quarterbacks such as Andy Dalton and Gardner Minshew. He favors a West Coast offense, a good run game with a pass catching back and a mobile quarterback.
There you have it. Overall I like the direction the team is heading. They are more talented than given credit. This team plays and practices hard. It is a blue collar, team-oriented team. Some good free agency moves and a good draft should have this team competing for a playoff spot next season.
