You play to win the game. (Herm Edwards). It all comes down to winning games. “The critics are always right. The only way you shut them up is by winning.” – Chuck Knoll. There are twenty eight quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame. Only two of them had losing records – Sonny Jurgensen (0.493) and Joe Namath (0.496). In contrast there are five quarterbacks from the Super Bowl era alone in the Hall of Fame that never won a Super Bowl.
In the Super Bowl this weekend we will have one quarterback with the most regular season wins in NFL history and the other with the highest win percentage for over five games (since 1950).
On the flip side of winning, here are the 2020 starting quarterbacks with a losing career record sorted by ascending win percentage.
| Team | QB | W | L | T | WL% | Years | Career QB Rate | Last Yr QB Rate | 2020 PFF Grade | 2020 QBR |
| Bengals | Joe Burrow | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0.250 | 1 | 89.8 | 89.8 | 75.1 | 56.2 (24) |
| Giants | Daniel Jones | 8 | 18 | 0.308 | 2 | 84.1 | 80.4 | 78.4 | 61.4 (20) | |
| Jets | Sam Darnold | 13 | 25 | 0.342 | 3 | 78.6 | 72.7 | 58.4 | 40.2 (33) | |
| Jaguars | Gardner Minshew | 7 | 13 | 0.350 | 2 | 92.9 | 95.9 | 67.8 | 51.7 (27) | |
| Colts | Jacoby Brissett | 12 | 20 | 0.375 | 5 | 84.1 | 88.0 | 59.3 | 50.1 | |
| Chargers | Justin Herbert | 6 | 9 | 0.400 | 1 | 98.3 | 98.3 | 80.1 | 69.6 (13) | |
| Cardinals | Kyler Murray | 13 | 18 | 1 | 0.422 | 2 | 90.9 | 94.3 | 82.8 | 68.9 (14) |
| Raiders | Derek Carr | 47 | 63 | 0.427 | 7 | 92.1 | 101.4 | 84.7 | 71.0 (11) | |
| Broncos | Drew Lock | 8 | 10 | 0.444 | 2 | 79.1 | 75.4 | 63.5 | 48.9 (29) | |
| Rams | Matthew Stafford | 74 | 90 | 1 | 0.452 | 12 | 89.9 | 96.3 | 82.0 | 68.4 (15) |
Of those ten teams the Chargers, Cardinals, Raiders and Rams have quarterbacks that have ranked well in ESPN’s Quarterback rating and the Pro Football Focus grading. They also have high passer rating numbers. The Bengals quarterback, Joe Burrow, had a season ending injury in his rookie year. He gets a pass.
Of the other teams the Jaguars are expected to draft quarterback – Trevor Lawrence.Their quarterback, Gardner Minshew, has only completed his second year in the league. He had good passer rating numbers for those years. However his 2020 PFF grade and ESPN’s QBR were poor. Minshew was a sixth round pick. The site nflmockdraftdatabase had him ranked only slightly lower at like a seventh round pick. All four draft sites surveyed have Trevor Lawrence as the number one pick. The Jaguars are unlikely to pass on Lawrence.
The new Jets coach has heaped praise for quarterback Sam Darnold. However of these QBs with losing records Sam Darnold has the lowest career QB rate, 2020 QB rate, 2020 PFF grade and 2020 ESPN QBR. With the second pick in the draft it would be tough for the Jets to pass on one of the quarterbacks.The sites of thehuddlereport, PFF, thedraftnetwork and nflmockdraftdatabase all have the same three quarterbacks ranked within the top four players in the draft. Offensive tackle Penei Sewell is the only player that squeezes into the top four. Sam Darnold was the third overall pick by the Jets in 2018. The site nflmockdraftdatabase had Darnold as the top ranked pick for the 2018 draft.
The Colts have now lost Phillip Rivers due to retirement. The next man up is backup free agent Jacoby Brissett. Brissett had poor quarterback numbers for 2019, the last year he started. His 2019 numbers are shown in the table. There are a couple of quarterback options in the draft for the Colts – Mac Jones, Trey Lance or Kyle Trask. It will be interesting to see what the Colts do at quarterback.
Bronco quarterback Drew lock was drafted in the second round of the 2019 draft. The Broncos pick at the ninth spot in the 2021 draft. That is right around where all four draft boards surveyed have QB Trey Lance ranked. Lance is a dual threat quarterback with the ability to be accurate on deep throws. He is an FCS quarterback so his level of competition needs to be considered. Interesting to see if they move on from Drew Lock.
Last but not least on the list of active quarterbacks with a losing career record is Giant Daniel Jones. His 2020 ESPN QBR rating was 20th in the league and significantly better than the four teams previously discussed as possibly taking a new quarterback in the draft. The same holds for his 2020 PFF grade. His passer rating was not as good but still appreciably better than Sam Darnold or Drew Lock.
Even with the recent focus on fixing the offensive line the Giants were ranked 31st by PFF in the 2020 offensive line rankings. Looking at receiving corps, the Giants were 31st in the league in 15+ yard passing plays. Sterling Shepard had a good season and made the PFF list of the top 25 wide receivers in 2020. However the Giants do not have a reliable deep threat at receiver. To improve Daniel Jones‘ win-loss percentage the Giants need to get a blue chip wide receiver and continue investing in fixing the offensive line.
Enjoy the Super Bowl !
Update 2/2/2021
I was looking at some additional data related to winning and thought it fit with this post.
Over the last decade only three quarterbacks started for their first three seasons with a win percentage of under 0.400. They were Sam Bradford (Rams), Blake Bortles (Jaguars) and Sam Darnold (Jets). Sam Bradford would go on to play his fourth season on the Rams but tore his ACL in week 7 and was out for the season. He re-injured his ACL in preseason the next year and was out again. After that year he was traded. Blake Bortles went on to start a fourth season for the Jaguars having his first winning season. In his fifth season he struggled, was benched a couple of times and was released following the season. Sam Darnold would be entering his fourth season on the Jets. It remains to be seen if the Jets at the number two spot in the draft will draft a quarterback.
The 2021 regular season is planned to be 17 games. For Daniel Jones to break the 0.400 win percentage he would need to win 10 of the 17 games for a 10-7 record in 2021, Jones is most likely safe thru his rookie contract thru the 2022 season. If his QB record does not break the 0.400 mark by then there is a good chance the Giants do not pick up his fifth year option and may look for a new quarterback in the 2023 draft. Preliminary rankings have three quarterbacks in the top ten picks for 2023.
I have a good feel for Daniel Jones. He is hardworking, competitive, fearless, tough, a leader and has a high football IQ . All the intangibles you look for in a franchise quarterback. He is a dual threat quarterback. As of December 5th this 2020 season PFF had Jones with the highest passer rating on throws 20+ yards. Daniel Jones has tough circumstances to deal with. He had the fourth highest pressure percentage in the league and the tenth highest drop percentage. He focused on ball security last offseason and showed a significant improvement. PFF had Jones graded higher in 2020 than his record breaking rookie season, He went from 65.9 to 78.4. The Giants need to get a deep threat wide receiver and continue fixing the offensive line. They must give Jones every opportunity to succeed. If the win percentage does not increase over the next two seasons we may be looking for a new quarterback in 2023.
