Being a systematic guy I came up with a process for running my mock drafts. First off was arriving at the Giants positions of needs. This was pretty easy as they have needs all over. My list in no order are Wide Receiver, Offensive Line, Edge Rusher, Cornerback and Linebacker. Next was a first round approach. At eleven they should look to get a blue chip player or one that has a high probability of success. My blue chip non-quarterback players are:
OT Penei Sewell
TE Kyle Pitts
CB Caleb Farley.
I added to the list OT Rashawn Slater, though I did not consider him a blue chip player. However I did consider him a player with a high probability of success.
If you look at draft success in the first round for the Giants positions of need, the offensive lineman selections had the highest success. I looked at first round picks from 1974 to 2020. The year 1974 was chosen as that year the game started changing by rule changes. From NFL.com – In 1974, the NFL implemented a package of changes to reinvigorate the game by boosting the passing attack, increasing the opportunity for big plays on kickoff and punt returns, reducing the incentive to kick field goals and minimizing drive-stalling penalties. Since then 36.7% of offensive linemen chosen in round one had successful careers, A successful career was determined as having an Approximate Value average of greater than 6.0. As determined by Pro Football Reference. Here are the success rates for the first three rounds.
| RD 1 | RD 2 | RD 3 | |
| OL | 36.73% | 18.42% | 7.87% |
| LB | 30.82% | 12.80% | 7.51% |
| WR | 25.00% | 11.17% | 8.65% |
| CB | 23.87% | 9.09% | 5.28% |
| ED | 20.21% | 10.90% | 4.58% |
Over one on three offensive linemen chosen in round one have had successful careers. After Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater is listed as the next ranked offensive lineman prospect by Pro Football Focus, DraftTek, the Huddle Report Report (Value Board), Great Blue North Draft Report and NFL Mock Draft database. The Draft Network has him as their third.
The Round one approach is to select one of these players in the order shown:
OT Penei Sewell
TE Kyle Pitts
CB Caleb Farley
OT Rashawn Slater.
Looking at the wide receiver need a few things drove the process. First the available draft prospects and projected rounds. I look for production in college for receivers. Specifically I use team market share percent of team total receiving yards. A number of 30% or higher has historically been indicative of long term starting players in the NFL. Here is a list of prospects that reached that goal along with their projected draft round.
| Player | Avg draft pick | NYG Rd | Team Market Share (TMS) | TMS Other Year | TMS Other Year | Year ▲ |
Class | School | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 5 | 1 | 29.6 | 2019 | SO | Louisiana State | 14 | 84 | 1780 | 21.2 | 20 | ||
| DeVonta Smith | 9 | 1 | 39.9 | 2020 | SR | Alabama | 13 | 117 | 1856 | 15.9 | 23 | ||
| Rashod Bateman | 22 | 1 | 37 | 2019 | SO | Minnesota | 13 | 60 | 1219 | 20.3 | 11 | ||
| Elijah Moore | 58 | 2 | 34.6 | 36.5 | 2020 | JR | Mississippi | 8 | 86 | 1193 | 13.9 | 8 | |
| Tylan Wallace | 71 | 3 | 35.1 | 31 | 37.1 | 2020 | JR | Oklahoma State | 9 | 53 | 903 | 17 | 8 |
| Dyami Brown | 76 | 3 | 30.4 | 2020 | JR | North Carolina | 11 | 55 | 1099 | 20 | 8 | ||
| Chatarius Atwell | 96 | 3 | 41.8 | 2019 | SO | Louisville | 13 | 69 | 1272 | 18.4 | 11 | ||
| Seth Williams | 97 | 3 | 31.4 | 30.8 | 2019 | SO | Auburn | 12 | 59 | 830 | 14.1 | 8 | |
| D’Wayne Eskridge | 103 | 3 | 45.1 | 2020 | SR | Western Michigan | 6 | 33 | 768 | 23.3 | 8 | ||
| Jaelon Darden | 104 | 3 | 42.1 | 2020 | SR | North Texas | 9 | 74 | 1190 | 16.1 | 19 | ||
| Tamorrion Terry | 155 | 4 | 34.2 | 2019 | SO | Florida State | 13 | 60 | 1188 | 19.8 | 9 | ||
| Marlon Williams | 178 | 4 | 29.1 | 2020 | SR | Central Florida | 8 | 71 | 1039 | 14.6 | 10 | ||
| Austin Watkins | 192 | 6 | 38.8 | 2019 | JR | Alabama-Birmingham | 14 | 57 | 1092 | 19.2 | 6 | ||
| Damonte Coxie | 209 | 6 | 30.1 | 34.5 | 2019 | JR | Memphis | 14 | 76 | 1276 | 16.8 | 9 | |
| Simi Fehoko | 224 | 6 | 32.9 | 2020 | JR | Stanford | 9 | 24 | 566 | 23.6 | 6 | ||
| Dax Milne | 228 | 6 | 29.8 | 2020 | JR | Brigham Young | 12 | 70 | 1188 | 17 | 8 | ||
| Warren Jackson | 268 | 6 | 30.1 | 2019 | JR | Colorado State | 10 | 77 | 1119 | 14.5 | 8 |
The largest number fall into the 3rd round of the draft for the Giants. This coincides with the success per round data. That shows that the WR position had the highest success rate among the Giant needs positions for the third round. That data also shows that the success rate difference between the 2nd and 3rd rounds is the lowest for the WR position group. Couple that with this Bleacher Report article and this QBList article that show based on historical data that wide receivers taken in the first round do not have the success as other positions. Therefore unless Rashod Bateman drops to the second round, I am using my first two rounds to get quality players at other positions than wide receiver. Here is my list of wide receivers I would be looking for in round three in order of preference.
Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State
Dyami Brown, North Carolina
Seth Williams, Auburn
Chatarius Atwell, Louisville (slot)
Jaelon Darden. North Texas (slot)
D’Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan (slot)
I prefer the outside receivers but include slot receivers that met the team market share criteria. Sterling Shepard has played outside and could continue to do so if only one of the good slot receivers were available in round three.
Here is a list of wide receivers that I would also check out to add in round six. This would be definite if Kyle Pitts was not selected, If they get Pitts and a round three receiver then the round six receiver is optional based on other available players.
Austin Watkins, Alabama-Birmingham
Damonte Coxie, Memphis
Simi Fehoko, Stanford
Dax Milne, Brigham Young
Warren Jackson, Colorado State
For round two I look to pick up a player that is first round talent that slipped to the top of round two. This is tending towards best player available for this selection. The only wide receiver I considered is Rashod Bateman if he slips out of round one. Here is a list of players looked for in round two in order of preference.
Gregory Rousseau ED
Jaycee Horn CB
Alijah Vera-Tucker OL
Trevon Moehrig S
Azeez Ojulari ED
Rashod Bateman WR
Jaelan Phillips ED
Wyatt Davis OL
Samuel Cosmi OL
Zaven Collins LB
Nick Bolton LB
Jayson Oweh ED
Greg Newsome CB
Pat Freiermuth TE
Teven Jenkins OL
Eric Stokes CB
Joseph Ossai ED
Asante Samuel CB
Jabril Cox LB
Dillon Radunz OL
Joe Tryon ED
Carlos Basham ED
If Bateman is available in round two he would trump other prospects. Safety Trevon Moehrig is not at a position of need and is only chosen if his value significantly outweighs the other available prospects lower on the list.
Here are six drafts I ran from different mock draft simulators showing the first three rounds and if I picked up an additional receiver in round six.
| Draft | Rd 1 | RD 2 | RD 3 | RD 6 |
| 1 | TE Kyle Pitts | S Trevon Moehrig | WR Tylan Wallace | |
| 2 | CB Caleb Farley | ED Jayson Oweh | WR Tylan Wallace | WR Damonte Coxie |
| 3 | OT Rashawn Slater | OL Alijah Vera Tucker | WR Tylan Wallace | |
| 4 | TE Kyle Pitts | ED Gregory Rousseau | WR Seth Williams | |
| 5 | OT Rashawn Slater | WR Rashod Bateman | OG Wyatt Davis | WR Austin Watkins |
| 6 | TE Kyle Pitts | CB Greg Newsome | WR Tylan Wallace | WR Damonte Coxie |
Here is a prior write-up I did on my preferred receivers.
Tylan Wallace, WR
The active career leader in receiving yards yards per game with 78 yard average over 44 games. Is third among active career leaders in receiving touchdowns with 26. In 2020 Wallace was 12th in 10+ yards plays in only 10 games. In 2018 as a sophomore Tylan was one of three finalists for the Biletnikoff Award. Tylan excels in vertical 50-50 balls. He attacks the ball in the air. In active career leaders Tylan is ninth in the FBS in yards per catch with 16.8 yards. Of the top nine players in career yards per catch, Tylan had the second most career receiving yards with 3,434 yards. Over his career 72% of his receptions made first down.
Rashod Bateman, WR
Superlative: All round receiver (Top 3 in Hands, Route Running, Contested catches)
In 2019 of his 60 receptions 50 made first down. (83%)
Market share of receiving yards is 5-time Pro Bowl level
Seth Williams, WR
Last season Seth Williams had a 30.8% team market share of receiving yards. 98% of long-term starting players reached this level of market share production since 1969. This season he had 31.4%. Seth Williams is a solid hands catcher that does a good job high-pointing the catch and coming thru in the clutch. In 2018 he had the game winning touchdown against A&M with under 2 minutes left. In 2019 he had three receptions on the final drive against Oregon including the game winning touchdown with 9 seconds left. In 2020 he had two touchdowns in the win over Kentucky. The second one coming on third-and-goal contested catch as Auburn led just 15-13 in the fourth.
Dyami Brown
In 2020 Brown was 7th in 10+ yards plays in 11 games. He was 11th in average yds/reception after being 9th in 2019. Among active FBS career leaders Dyami is 3rd in yards per catch (18.7), 8th in receiving touchdowns (21) and 12th in receiving yards per game (67.8). Dyami Brown and Devonta Smith were the only two FBS players with 2000+ receiving yards and 20+ receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons. Brown is a vertical threat with good burst and ball skills. Brown is a more than willing blocker and is fearless in the middle of the field.
Damonte Coxie
Damonte Coxie is a shifty receiver in the open field. In 2018 he was 17th in receiving plays of 10+ yards and 13th in 20+yards. He did even better in 2019 coming in 8th in 10+ yards and 4th in 20+ yards.
This approach leans towards drafting the Best Player Available (BPA). Here is a full listing of the six drafts run. Some of the selections in the later rounds do not appear realistic. Such as CB Greg Newsome available in Round 4. But that is what the simulator gave me so I took it.
| Rd 1 | RD 2 | RD 3 | RD 4 | RD 6 | RD 6 |
| TE Kyle Pitts | S Trevon Moehrig | WR Tylan Wallace | CB Greg Newsome | ED Tarron Jackson | OG David Moore |
| CB Caleb Farley | ED Jayson Oweh | WR Tylan Wallace | LB Jamin Davis | OT Brenden Jaimes | WR Damonte Coxie |
| OT Rashawn Slater | OL Alijah Vera Tucker | WR Tylan Wallace | RB Kenneth Gainwell | ED Tarron Jackson | CB Thomas Graham |
| TE Kyle Pitts | ED Gregory Rousseau | WR Seth Williams | OG Deonte Brown | LB Tony Fields | CB Olaijah Griffin |
| OT Rashawn Slater | WR Rashod Bateman | OG Wyatt Davis | ED Carlos Basham | LB Justin Hilliard | WR Austin Watkins |
| TE Kyle Pitts | CB Greg Newsome | WR Tylan Wallace | ED Joe Tryon | WR Damonte Coxie | LB Justin Hilliard |
Running Back Kenneth Gainwell is not at a position of need. But his availability in round 4 was too good to pass up. He has excelled as a pass catching running back and has hit team market share targets for yards for scrimmage. He was the only running back in college football with 85.0+ PFF receiving and rushing grades.
Tackle Brenden Jaimes allowed six sacks, four quarterback hits and 22 hurries over his last three seasons. He gave up just four hurries and no sacks over seven games in 2020. He allowed only 13 pressures on 637 pass-blocking snaps over the past two seasons.
Linebacker Tony Fields was voted the best linebacker on the National team by the players at the Senior Bowl.Fields is reported to be good in man-to-man coverage on tight ends and running backs and wide receivers.
Enjoy your mock drafts!
