Five weeks until the unofficial start of the NFL season with the first preseason game on August 20th. So in honor of the number five I highlight five Giants for the 2020 season that I predict will have a big season .
Daniel Jones
Jones is fourth among all-time rookie quarterbacks in passing touchdowns. For rookies that started 8+ games he is thirteenth in completion percentage, fourteenth in passer rating and tenth in passing yards per game. He set two NFL rookie quarterback records – Most passing touchdowns in a single game and First rookie to have three games with 4 touchdown passes and no interceptions.
2020 Prediction: Passer Rating 95+ (2019 Passer Rating 87.7)
Over the last decade second year quarterbacks that started 14 games averaged a passer rating of 90.8. Eight of the twenty-three quarterbacks had a rating of 95+. Daniel Jones averaged a 75 passer rating his first six games. In the last seven games he averaged a 95.4 passer rating. He will have an improved offensive line, hopefully a healthy cast of offensive weapons and a strong quarterback room. His new quarterback coach, Jerry Schuplinski, has a history of developing young quarterbacks including Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo speaks very highly of Schuplinski. Also the offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has played quarterback. In 2019 only 12 quarterbacks of the 32 that started 8 games had a passer rating of 95+.
Saquon Barkley
Barkley is one of eleven backs all-time that in their first two seasons had a combined 2,000+ yards rushing, 3,000+yards from scrimmage, a 4.5+ yards per rushing attempt average and scored 130+ points. Five of the eleven backs are in the Hall Of Fame and three are still active. Saquon was the 2018 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, made the PFWA All Rookie Team and also made the 2018 Pro Bowl. He set five NFL rookie records.
2020 Prediction: Yards From Scrimmage 2000+ (2019 yards from Scrimmage 1,441)
Barkley had 2,028 yards from scrimmage in 2018. He missed 3.5 games in 2019 due to injury and has admitted he probably came back too soon from the injury. He still managed 1,441 yards from scrimmage. The Giants offensive line should be improved. Rookie Andrew Thomas was outstanding in run blocking. He has strong power at the point of contact and he excels in space. Matt Peart graded at an impressive 90.1 in the run game last season. He was the anchor of an offensive line that produced two 1,000-yard rushers in 2018 and another 1,000-yard rusher in 2019. In 2019 the only running back with 2000+ yards from scrimmage was Christian McCaffrey with 2,392 yards. If Barkley pulls this off he will join only three other running backs that had two 2000+ yards from scrimmage seasons in their first three years. All three are Hall Of Fame players – Eric Dickerson, Edgerrin James and LaDainian Tomlinson.
Dalvin Tomlinson
Tomlinson made the 2017 All Rookie Team. He is one of only 17 active interior defensive linemen that in their first three season have 4.5+ sacks, 80+ solo tackles, 13+ tackles for loss and 10+ quarterback hits. In 2019 Tomlinson was one of only ten defensive tackles that had 3 sacks, 20 solo tackles, 7 tackles for loss and 9 quarterback hits. For 2019 PFF ranked Tomlinson as 11th among all interior defensive linemen with at least 500 snaps. He has graded above 78 each of his three NFL seasons.
2020 Prediction: Sacks 5 (2019 Sacks 3.5).
Tomlinson’s 3.5 sacks in 2019 was the most of his 3 year career and 2.5 more than either prior year, He had the most sacks by Giant interior defensive linemen in 2019. I imagine the reduced practice time of the 2020 season would probably hurt the offensive lines more than the defense as they need to have more coordination between linemen.Tomlinson has played in and started every game of his Giants 3 year career. Over the last ten seasons fourth year defensive tackles that started 14 games averaged 3.14 sacks for that season. Of those 35 defensive tackles, 10 had 5+ sacks. In 2019 only nine defensive tackles had 5+ sacks.
Sterling Shepard
Shepard made the 2016 All Rookie Team. Shepard is one of only eight active players that in their first four seasons had a 65% catch rate, 2800+ receiving yards, a 7.5+ yards per target and 17+ receiving touchdowns.He is one of only five wide receivers that over the last four seasons had 250+ touches and two or less fumbles. Since coming into the league in 2016 Shepard is 16th in the league in 3rd down catches that result in a first down.
2020 Prediction: 1,000 yards receiving (best season 872 yards in 2018)
In each of his last two seasons at Oklahoma State (2014, 2015) Shepard had over a 30% team market share of receiving yards leading the team both years. His 872 yards in 2018 was behind Odell Beckham who had 1,072 yards that season. Despite injury in 2019 Shepard solidified his position as a dependable goto receiver. On 83 targets Shepard had a 1.2% drop percentage. That was sixth lowest in the league among wide receivers. His 68.7% catch percentage was tops on the team among wide receivers and 20th best in the league. Shepard is one of only five wide receivers that over the last four seasons had 250+ touches and two or less fumbles. Shepard was injured in 2019 and only played ten games. If you extrapolate his 57.6 receiving yards per game out to 16 games he would have had 922 yards. In 2019 twenty-five wide receivers had 1,000+ receiving yards.
Xavier McKinney
McKinney is the only FBS player over the last 2 seasons with 100 solo tackles, 6 sacks, 5 interceptions and 15 passes defended. He made 2019 All Sec First Team. Xavier played all over at Alabama – slot, deep zone and up at the line. Pro Football Focus has him earned grades of 84.7 in run defense, 90.9 as a pass-rusher, and 91.2 in coverage for his college career. McKinney has actually improved his grade in every facet from 2018 to 2019.
2020 Prediction: 70+ solo tackles
Xavier McKinney had a 12.6% team market share of solo tackles in his last year at Alabama. That is indicative of a potential All-Pro to Pro Bowl players since the 1989 NFL draft class. His fellow alumni Landon Collins had reached only 11.2% back in 2014. Collins went on to get 84 solo tackles his rookie year on the Giants. That stands as eighth best among rookie safeties since records were consistently kept in 1994. In 2019 only 11 safeties had over 69 solo tackles.
I feel the more risky prediction is if we will have a full season of football. If so here are five Giants that look good for a breakout season.
