With what started as an exercise to further substantiate my feeling that the Giants have an above average receiving corp, turned into an outcome I did not expect.
I figured that one of the most telling stats for your passing game would be the amount of first downs you achieve. Receptions and yards per attempt can be misleading. A lot of short receptions may not do much to help the goal to win, Yards per attempt does not account for large cushions given by the defense on long yardage situations. Receiving touchdowns are too few to gauge a team’s ability to move the football. However first downs are a significant measure of success. Specifically the number of receiving first downs compared to the number of targets.This is the second best measure of success next to touchdowns but with much higher opportunity,
I took each team’s players with the highest 1st down to target ratios. For the team I decided to go by the majority of personnel groupings. For a 99% coverage I came up with four receivers, three tight ends and two running backs. For teams that had a fullback with a high ratio I would use a fullback as either one of the tight ends or running backs. I used the 2019 team statistics for the data as shown on profootballreference.com. If a player did not play in 2019 he was not used in this exercise.
The top team roster for 2020 in terms of first down to targets is the New Orleans Saints.They top out at 43.1% of their passing targets result in a first down. They also had the third highest number of targets for the players used. The 2020 roster based on each players 2019 1st downs to target ratio is as follows.
New Orleans Saints 2020 Top 1st Down/Target Based In 2019 Data
| Player | Age | Pos | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | 1D | Rat | 1d/tgt |
| Michael Thomas | 26 | WR | 16 | 15 | 185 | 149 | 1725 | 91 | 121.7 | 49.19% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 32 | WR | 17 | 16 | 97 | 66 | 869 | 41 | 113.3 | 42.27% |
| Jared Cook | 32 | TE | 14 | 7 | 65 | 43 | 705 | 32 | 135.6 | 49.23% |
| Alvin Kamara | 24 | RB | 14 | 9 | 97 | 81 | 533 | 28 | 88.7 | 28.87% |
| Tre’Quan Smith | 23 | WR | 11 | 6 | 25 | 18 | 234 | 17 | 124 | 68.00% |
| Taysom Hill | 29 | WR | 16 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 234 | 14 | 150.6 | 63.64% |
| Josh Hill | 29 | TE | 16 | 11 | 35 | 25 | 226 | 13 | 117.1 | 37.14% |
| Latavius Murray | 29 | RB | 16 | 8 | 43 | 34 | 235 | 9 | 87.5 | 20.93% |
| TE | ||||||||||
| NOR Team | 569 | 245 | 43.06% |
The Saints can use someone to step up as a third tight end for 2020. They spent a third round pick on tight end Adam Trautman. They really used Taysom Hill as a swiss army knife. He was a wide receiver for 116 snaps, a tight end for 85 snaps, a quarterback for 41 snaps and a running back/fullback for 22 snaps. In addition he played 54% on special teams. Receiver Michael Thomas’ 49.2% first down/target ratio was third highest among players with 100+ targets. The Saints roster shown here among the teams has the most receiving yards by 350 yards.
San Francisco 49ers 2020 Top 1st Down/Target Based In 2019 Data
| Player | Age | Pos | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | 1D | Rat | 1d/tgt |
| George Kittle | 26 | TE | 14 | 14 | 107 | 85 | 1053 | 53 | 119.4 | 49.53% |
| Deebo Samuel | 23 | WR | 15 | 11 | 81 | 57 | 802 | 32 | 109.2 | 39.51% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 24 | WR | 16 | 0 | 44 | 30 | 358 | 23 | 121.2 | 52.27% |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 28 | FB | 12 | 12 | 24 | 20 | 239 | 11 | 122.0 | 45.83% |
| Tevin Coleman | 26 | RB | 14 | 11 | 30 | 21 | 180 | 9 | 82.6 | 30.00% |
| Ross Dwelley | 24 | TE | 16 | 6 | 22 | 15 | 91 | 8 | 87.5 | 36.36% |
| Dante Pettis | 24 | WR | 11 | 4 | 24 | 11 | 109 | 7 | 52.3 | 29.17% |
| Raheem Mostert | 27 | RB | 16 | 0 | 22 | 14 | 180 | 6 | 119.5 | 27.27% |
| Richie James | 24 | WR | 16 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 165 | 5 | 97.9 | 50.00% |
| SFO Team | 364 | 154 | 42.31% |
The 49ers are third on the list in 1st down/target ratio. When filtering the 2019 data on players that had 40+ targets you have only two teams that have two players in the top ten. Those teams are the Saints and the 49ers. Kendrick Bourne is at top of that list with 52.3% of his targets making a first down, He is followed at sixth place by tight end George Kittle. The 49ers also have the most productive fullback in Kyle Juszczyk. His twenty receptions was the most by a fullback on these ratio team rosters. Kyle also had a very good 45.8% first down/target ratio.
The NFC South has all four teams in the top ten of 2020 rosters for 1st downs per target, The top two teams are the Saints and the Falcons. Tampa Bay comes in at number five and Carolina rounds up the top ten at number ten.
Atlanta Falcons 2020 Top 1st Down/Target Based In 2019 Data
| Player | Age | Pos | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | 1D | Rat | 1d/tgt |
| Julio Jones | 30 | WR | 15 | 15 | 157 | 99 | 1394 | 77 | 91.1 | 49.04% |
| Calvin Ridley | 25 | WR | 13 | 10 | 93 | 63 | 866 | 47 | 113.5 | 50.54% |
| Russell Gage | 23 | WR | 16 | 4 | 74 | 49 | 446 | 25 | 81.3 | 33.78% |
| Hayden Hurst | 26 | TE | 16 | 4 | 39 | 30 | 349 | 16 | 120.6 | 41.03% |
| Todd Gurley | 25 | RB | 15 | 15 | 49 | 31 | 207 | 8 | 86 | 16.33% |
| Laquon Treadwell | 24 | WR | 13 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 184 | 8 | 117.7 | 50.00% |
| Jaeden Graham | 24 | TE | 16 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 149 | 7 | 152.1 | 70.00% |
| Brian Hill | 24 | RB | 12 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 69 | 4 | 106 | 28.57% |
| TE | ||||||||||
| ATL Team |
452 | 192 | 42.48% |
The Falcons roster has the highest combined ratio for their top two receivers. The Falcons could also use a third tight end to step up. They did not draft a tight end but did sign two undrafted free agents,
Philadelphia Eagles 2020 Top 1st Down/Target Based In 2019 Data
| Player | Age | Pos | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | 1D | Rat | 1d/tgt |
| Zach Ertz* | 29 | TE | 15 | 15 | 135 | 88 | 916 | 50 | 96.4 | 37.04% |
| Alshon Jeffery | 29 | WR | 10 | 10 | 73 | 43 | 490 | 36 | 91.7 | 49.32% |
| Dallas Goedert | 24 | TE | 15 | 9 | 87 | 58 | 607 | 33 | 91.5 | 37.93% |
| Miles Sanders | 22 | RB | 16 | 11 | 63 | 50 | 509 | 19 | 116.2 | 30.16% |
| Greg Ward | 24 | WR | 7 | 3 | 40 | 28 | 254 | 18 | 95.2 | 45.00% |
| Boston Scott | 24 | RB | 11 | 2 | 26 | 24 | 204 | 10 | 99.4 | 38.46% |
| Marquise Goodwin | 29 | WR | 9 | 6 | 21 | 12 | 186 | 10 | 102.5 | 47.62% |
| JJ Arcega-Whiteside | 23 | WR | 16 | 5 | 22 | 10 | 169 | 7 | 68.2 | 31.82% |
| Joshua Perkins | 26 | TE | 5 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 87 | 5 | 113.3 | 38.46% |
| PHI Team | 480 | 188 | 39.17% |
The Eagles had the highest low individual ratio. Each of their players had a 1st down/target ration over 30%. The team came in twelfth on the list and the highest in the NFC East. However Dallas was right behind them at number thirteen. On average passes to running back Boston Scott traveled a -2.9 yards in the air and yet he made 1st down on 38.5% of his targets,
There are six teams on which their lead receiver in yards is also the receiver with the best team ratio of 1st downs to targets. Here they are sorted by receiving yards.
Lead Receivers On Team in Yards and 1st down Ratio To Tagets
| Player | Tm | Age | Pos | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | 1D | YBC/R | YAC/R | Drop% | Int | Rat | 1d/tgt |
| Chris Godwin | TAM | 23 | WR | 14 | 14 | 121 | 86 | 1333 | 63 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 0.8 | 5 | 114.8 | 52.07% |
| DeVante Parker | MIA | 26 | WR | 16 | 14 | 128 | 72 | 1202 | 58 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 4 | 98.5 | 45.31% |
| Amari Cooper | DAL | 25 | WR | 16 | 16 | 119 | 79 | 1189 | 54 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2 | 114.4 | 45.38% |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | 24 | WR | 14 | 14 | 93 | 58 | 919 | 43 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 1 | 115.8 | 46.24% |
| Randall Cobb | HOU | 29 | WR | 15 | 6 | 83 | 55 | 828 | 41 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 3 | 95.9 | 49.40% |
| James Washington | PIT | 23 | WR | 15 | 10 | 80 | 44 | 735 | 31 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 5 | 72.7 | 38.75% |
Two surprise teams that have relatively decent ratios though their combined win/loss number of 6-25 does not show it are Detroit and Washington. Detroit and Washington come in at 18th and 21st on the 1st down/targets ratio list respectively. Their standings in the league for 2019 were 30th (Detroit) and 31st (Washington).
Washington 2020 Top 1st Down/Target Based In 2019 Data
| Player | Age | Pos | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | 1D | Rat | 1d/tgt |
| Terry McLaurin | 24 | WR | 14 | 14 | 93 | 58 | 919 | 43 | 115.8 | 46.24% |
| Cody Latimer | 27 | WR | 15 | 10 | 42 | 24 | 300 | 19 | 85.4 | 45.24% |
| Steven Sims | 22 | WR | 16 | 2 | 56 | 34 | 310 | 18 | 92.1 | 32.14% |
| Kelvin Harmon | 23 | WR | 16 | 8 | 44 | 30 | 365 | 16 | 74.5 | 36.36% |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 25 | TE | 16 | 13 | 40 | 26 | 241 | 13 | 68.9 | 32.50% |
| Logan Thomas | 28 | TE | 16 | 3 | 28 | 16 | 173 | 10 | 72.5 | 35.71% |
| Adrian Peterson | 34 | RB | 15 | 15 | 23 | 17 | 142 | 7 | 89.4 | 30.43% |
| J.D. McKissic | 26 | RB | 16 | 3 | 42 | 34 | 233 | 7 | 97.7 | 16.67% |
| Hale Hentges | 23 | TE | 11 | 4 | 14 | 8 | 103 | 6 | 104.2 | 42.86% |
| WAS Team | 382 | 139 | 36.39% |
Two teams that have a low ratio status for 2020 though a high 2019 win/loss figure are the Packers and the Patriots, Both won their divisions in 2019 and had a combined 25-7 win/loss record. The Packers come in at 22nd on the 1st down ratio list and the Patriots at 26th.
NE Patriots 2020 Top 1st Down/Target Based In 2019 Data
| Player | Age | Pos | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | 1D | Rat | 1d/tgt |
| Julian Edelman | 33 | WR | 16 | 13 | 153 | 100 | 1117 | 54 | 91.9 | 35.29% |
| James White | 27 | RB | 15 | 1 | 95 | 72 | 645 | 31 | 106.7 | 32.63% |
| Mohamed Sanu | 30 | WR | 15 | 12 | 89 | 59 | 520 | 30 | 89.2 | 33.71% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 23 | WR | 15 | 1 | 41 | 26 | 359 | 17 | 91.4 | 41.46% |
| Damiere Byrd | 26 | WR | 11 | 3 | 46 | 32 | 359 | 16 | 90.8 | 34.78% |
| Rex Burkhead | 29 | RB | 13 | 1 | 38 | 27 | 279 | 10 | 91.9 | 26.32% |
| Matt LaCosse | 27 | TE | 11 | 8 | 19 | 13 | 131 | 6 | 83.4 | 31.58% |
| Ryan Izzo | 24 | TE | 6 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 114 | 4 | 146.8 | 44.44% |
| Danny Vitale | 26 | FB | 15 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 97 | 3 | 84.4 | 25.00% |
| NWE Team | 502 | 171 | 34.06% |
And last but not least we have the NY Giants at the bottom of the 1st down/targets ratio list. I still feel that the Giants have an above average receiving corp. This is a talented receiving team but they need to be better at moving those markers on receptions. Just some little adjustments may be needed that could be helped with better coaching. I recall many times Giants receivers catching the ball just short of the first down marker on third down and getting tackled. Sometimes these appeared to be crossing routes. What’s with not running the route out an extra yard or two?
NY Giants 2020 Top 1st Down/Target Based In 2019 Data
| Player | Age | Pos | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | 1D | Rat | 1d/tgt |
| Darius Slayton | 22 | WR | 14 | 9 | 84 | 48 | 740 | 32 | 98.3 | 38.10% |
| Golden Tate | 31 | WR | 11 | 10 | 85 | 49 | 676 | 30 | 87.2 | 35.29% |
| Sterling Shepard | 26 | WR | 10 | 10 | 83 | 57 | 576 | 29 | 80.2 | 34.94% |
| Evan Engram | 25 | TE | 8 | 6 | 68 | 44 | 467 | 23 | 99.3 | 33.82% |
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | RB | 13 | 13 | 73 | 52 | 438 | 14 | 95.6 | 19.18% |
| Kaden Smith | 22 | TE | 9 | 6 | 42 | 31 | 268 | 12 | 114 | 28.57% |
| Wayne Gallman | 25 | RB | 10 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 102 | 4 | 113.7 | 26.67% |
| Cody Core | 25 | WR | 16 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 2 | 75.4 | 40.00% |
| Eric Tomlinson | 27 | TE | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 79.2 | 0.00% |
| 456 | 146 | 32.02% |
Here is a link to the full league 2020 rosters I created based on 2019 first down to targets receiving ratios 2020 Rosters Based on 1st Down Ratios.
Here is the list of full standings.
| Rank | Tm | Tgt | 1D | 1d/tgt |
| 1 | NOR | 569 | 245 | 43.06% |
| 2 | ATL | 452 | 192 | 42.48% |
| 3 | SFO | 364 | 154 | 42.31% |
| 4 | TEN | 317 | 133 | 41.96% |
| 5 | TAM | 490 | 203 | 41.43% |
| 6 | HOU | 496 | 204 | 41.13% |
| 7 | LAC | 469 | 192 | 40.94% |
| 8 | KAN | 493 | 200 | 40.57% |
| 9 | MIN | 335 | 135 | 40.30% |
| 10 | CAR | 552 | 222 | 40.22% |
| 11 | BAL | 331 | 132 | 39.88% |
| 12 | PHI | 480 | 188 | 39.17% |
| 13 | DAL | 411 | 158 | 38.44% |
| 14 | OAK | 544 | 207 | 38.05% |
| 15 | SEA | 526 | 200 | 38.02% |
| 16 | LAR | 484 | 180 | 37.19% |
| 17 | MIA | 452 | 168 | 37.17% |
| 18 | DET | 497 | 184 | 37.02% |
| 19 | CLE | 509 | 188 | 36.94% |
| 20 | BUF | 487 | 178 | 36.55% |
| 21 | WAS | 382 | 139 | 36.39% |
| 22 | GNB | 403 | 146 | 36.23% |
| 23 | ARI | 534 | 187 | 35.02% |
| 24 | NYJ | 370 | 129 | 34.86% |
| 25 | DEN | 418 | 143 | 34.21% |
| 26 | NWE | 502 | 171 | 34.06% |
| 27 | PIT | 471 | 159 | 33.76% |
| 28 | IND | 379 | 127 | 33.51% |
| 29 | JAX | 591 | 198 | 33.50% |
| 30 | CHI | 571 | 189 | 33.10% |
| 31 | CIN | 499 | 164 | 32.87% |
| 32 | NYG | 456 | 146 | 32.02% |
