The site nflpickwatch.com has a consensus of straight-up picks each week to win from “experts”. This week no one picks the Giants. There have been eight games so far this year on that site that no one picked the underdog. There is an active two week streak in which the underdog with zero picks on that site won the game. In week nine the Jaguars beat the Bills. The Jaguars were +14.5 points and won 9-6. In week ten the Dolphins beat the Ravens. The Ravens were +7.5 points and won 22-10. These two upsets had something in common. The underdog had a positive turnover margin. Of the other six zero pick games, five had the underdog with a negative turnover margin and one was equal. The Jaguar and Bills upsets had both underdogs with a +2 turnover margin.
With Tampa, two of their three losses this season had Tampa with a negative turnover margin. Their other loss to the Rams had a zero turnover margin. Of Tampa’s six wins, four had a Tampa positive turnover margin, one had an equal margin and one had a negative margin Forty four percent of games this season in which a team had a +1 turnover margin won the game. That percent goes up to 81% when the turnover margin is 2+.
The Giants and Tampa are tie for the season in turnover margin at eighth in the league with a +3 turnover margin. The Giants have had 2 and 3 takeaways in the last two games against the Chiefs and then the Raiders. The Raider game was the only game this season the Giants had a 2+ turnover margin. They won that game falling in the 80% group of teams with a 2+ margin. Brady has been intercepted two more times this season than Jones.
McKinney is tie at fourth in the league with four interceptions. Bradberry is tie at tenth with three interceptions. Julian Love has one interception. Adoree Jackson has zero. He has had 2 in his NFL career which began in 2017. In his last college season he was tie at thirteenth in the nation with five interceptions.
It would be key to see a big game from the Giants secondary with regard to turnovers and a mistake limited game from Daniel Jones.
