Musings on 2020 Starting Quarterbacks And Rookie Contracts

There are 110 quarterbacks on NFL rosters including the practice squads. All teams have a QB1 and QB2. Just over half the teams (17) have a 3rd string quarterback on the 53 man roster. There are 29 quarterbacks on practice squads. Only eight teams do not have a quarterback on the practice squad. Five teams have two quarterbacks on their practice squad.

The Jets have the most quarterbacks with five quarterbacks. The Eagles have the oldest quarterback ever on a practice squad with 41 year old Josh McCown. McCown will sit at home during the season attending only video meetings and be an emergency quarterback.

Joe Burrow on the Bengals is the only rookie quarterback slated to start day one. Tom Brady is the oldest starting quarterback at 43. Brady has the most career wins by a quarterback and the third best career win percentage (77.4%). He has the fourth most career games started. If Brady starts a full season in 2020 he will take first place.

Of starting quarterbacks Lamar Jackson has the highest career win percentage with 86% and Daniel Jones has the lowest with 25%. Patrick Mahomes has the highest career quarterback rating with 108.9 and Dwayne Haskins has the lowest with 76.1. Drew Brees has the highest career completion percentage with 67.6% and Josh Allen has the lowest with 56.3%. Lamar Jackson has the highest career touchdown percent at 7.4% and Dwayne Haskins has the lowest at 3.4%. Gardner Minshew has the lowest interception percentage at 1.28 and Dwayne Haskins has the highest at 3.45. Patrick Mahomes has the highest yards per pass attempt at 8.56 and Drew Lock has the lowest at 6.54 yards. Patrick Mahomes has the highest passing yards per game started with 303 and Josh Allen has the lowest with 191. Drew Lock has the lowest sack percent at 3.1% and Dwayne Haskins has the highest at 12.5%.

In 2019 among qualifying quarterbacks Daniel Jones had the highest pressure percentage at 29% and Drew Brees had the lowest at 13.8%. Aaron Rodgers had the highest bad throw percentage with 21.2% and Drew Brees had the lowest at 10.4%. Josh Allen had the highest drop percentage at 7.2% and Matt Ryan had the lowest at 2.9%. Mathew Stafford had the highest intended and completed air yards per pass attempt at 10.6 and 5.5 respectively. Drew Brees had the lowest intended air yards per pass attempt at 6.4 yards and Mitch Trubisky had the lowest completed air yards per pass attempt at 3.4 yards.

One goal of teams that sign rookie starting quarterbacks is to compete for a Super Bowl while their quarterback is still on a cheap rookie contract. That helps freeing up resources to spend in other positions. In the nine seasons since the league implemented the collective bargaining agreement establishing a rookie wage scale, seven of those nine seasons saw a Super Bowl participating team with a quarterback on a rookie contract. The league quarterbacks currently on rookie contracts with the last year of their contract including the fifth year option is shown here.

Quarterback Team Draft/Round Last Yr
Trubisky, Mitch CHI 17/1 2020
Allen, Josh BUF 18/1 2022
Darnold, Sam NYJ 18/1 2022
Jackson, Lamar BAL 18/1 2022
Mayfield, Baker CLE 18/1 2022
Lock, Drew DEN 19/2 2022
Jones, Daniel NYG 19/1 2023
Haskins, Dwayne WAS 19/1 2023
Murray, Kyler ARI 19/1 2023
Burrow, Joe CIN 20/1 2024

The caveat is that teams with rookie starting quarterbacks have that luxury because they are not that good. Of the teams shown here the Baltimore Ravens are probably in the best position to get to the super Bowl on Lamar Jackson’s rookie contract. That is in large part that they were able to pick Jackson with the 32nd pick in the 2018 draft. Last season Baltimore made the playoffs with a first round bye. Baltimore has a well rounded team performing well in offense, defense and special teams.

The team on this list least likely to make the Super Bowl on the rookie quarterback contract is the Jets. Of teams on this list the Jets have the least number of starting first round picks (4) and the least number of starting day two picks (5). Sam Darnold has been ranked as the 30th best starting quarterback by Pro Football Focus, the 26th by nfl.com  for 2019 quarterbacks, and the 24th by Sporting News. The big positive they have is that their cap space for 2021 and 2022 is in the top five.

The two teams I would say following the Ravens as most likely to reach the Super Bowl on their rookie QB contract are the Cardinals and the Browns. They tie the Ravens as having the most round one starters (8) on this list. If you add in day two draft picks they have the most round 1-3 draft picks as starters with 17 on the Cardinals and 16 on the Browns. In addition both quarterbacks rank in the high teens compared to the other remaining teams in the twenties as reported by Pro Football Focus and Sporting News. The Browns have a decent Cap Space

The Bills also made the playoffs in 2019. They have a strong defense. They allowed the third lowest net yards per pass attempt and the fourth lowest yards per play.. With Tom Brady moving on from the Patriots the AFC East division is a little more competitive.In his second year in 2019 Josh Allen improved in every quarterback statistic.  His quarterback rating went from 67 to 85. He was tie with Russell Wilson and DeShaun Watson for the most game winning drives in 2019.

The Giants have five first round starters on offense and three second round starters. The only other offensive starters are center Nick Gates, right tackle Cam Fleming and wide receiver Darius Slayton. Darius Slayton looks to have been a steal in the fifth round. He led Giant wide receivers in passer rating when targeted, and yards before the catch per reception. The latter was good for thirteenth in the league. He also led all Giants in yards per reception and yards per target, The secondary of Bradberry, Peppers, Love and Ryan is a vast improvement from what was on the field last season. the addition of Blake Martinez should be an improvement to the linebacker corp. The Giants have four seasons to make the Super Bowl on Daniel Jones’ rookie contract. They appear headed in the right direction going into his second season.

Here is a spreadsheet of quarterback rosters for 2020 – QB rosters 2020.