Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has had success in Dallas running the football with Ezekiel Elliot. Garrett now has Saquon Barkley to continue his success in the run game with the Giants. Here are some statistics on the run game and a look at the Giants’ schedule.
Teams With High Point Differential
It goes without saying that the ultimate measure of a team’s success is wins and losses. This related directly to the metric of points differential which is the point value of a team’s scored points minus the opponent’s scored points. A high positive point differential usually directly coincides with more wins.
Over the last five seasons teams that had a 60+ season point differential had a record of 0.500 or better. There were 45 team seasons with a 60+ point differential. Of those 44 of the 45 teams had nine or more wins those seasons. Only the 2019 Dallas Cowboys finished with less at 8-8.
When looking at these 45 team seasons only 28 of the 45 teams had a season passing yards over the league’s median which was 3,782 yards. This for a 62% above median. However 36 of the 45 teams had a rushing yards total above the league median of 1,738 yards. This for a 80% above median. In addition the team’s rushing yards per carry had 36 of the 45 teams above the league median of 4.14 yards per carry. These numbers are based on totals for the most recent five seasons.
Over the last five seasons the win percentage for the top five teams in rushing yards (56%) was almost identical to the top five teams in passing yards (55.75%). The top five teams in rushing yards had a passing yards rank from 14 to 32 with an average rank of 21.
Teams With High Short Yardage Success
Three of the five top teams in making first down on 0-3 yards to go over the last five seasons were in the top five that rushed the most on those plays. The percentage of 1st down success on plays of 0-3 yards was over 10% higher for the top five teams that rushed more versus the top five teams that passed.
| Tm | G | Plays | Avg ToGo | Avg Yds | 1st% ▼ |
Rush |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 79 | 399 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 70.9% | 399 |
| KAN | 78 | 325 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 69.5% | 325 |
| NOR | 78 | 430 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 69.1% | 430 |
| BAL | 77 | 427 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 68.6% | 427 |
| PIT | 78 | 280 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 67.5% | 280 |
| Tm | G | Plays | Avg ToGo | Avg Yds | 1st% ▼ |
Pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOR | 78 | 298 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 60.7% | 298 |
| TAM | 79 | 279 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 59.5% | 279 |
| ATL | 78 | 320 | 2.1 | 7.6 | 59.1% | 320 |
| DAL | 73 | 263 | 2.2 | 7.9 | 58.2% | 263 |
| MIN | 78 | 300 | 2.2 | 6.9 | 56.7% | 300 |
For plays that gained 0-5 yards and resulted in a first down the average ratio was 2.2 to 1.0 of rush to pass plays.
Run To Set Up The Pass Or Vice Versa
Over the last five seasons nine of the twelve teams (75%) with the highest number of rushing first downs were in the top half of the league in passing completion percentage. Seven of the ten teams (70%) with the lowest number of rushing first downs were in the bottom half of the league in completion percentage. Passer rating and passing yards does not correlate like the completion percentage.
A Return to The Run Game
After six seasons with the number of 1,000 yard rushers below the NFL average since 1978, the 2019 season had sixteen 1,000 yard rushers. That was above the yearly average of 13.9. The Ravens had two 1,000 yard rushers of quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Mark Ingram. That was the first time of two rushers since the 2009 Panthers. It was only the second time ever with a quarterback/running back duo. The other being in 2006 with Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn.
Teams The Giants Should Have Success Running
The following are six games on the Giants’ schedule that they should have success running the ball in.
Bengals
2019 Rush Yards/Attempt = 4.7 (24th)
2019 Rush Yards/Game = 148.9 (32nd)
Two year number of rush 1st downs/game allowed = 8.1 (32nd)
49ers
The 49ers traded defensive tackle DeForest Buckner in the offseason and lost defensive tackle Sheldon Day in free agency. They select defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw in the first round of the 2002 draft. However Kinlaw is a rookie in a scaled back offseason program.
2019 Rush Yards/Attempt = 4.5 (23rd)
2019 Rush Yards/Game = 112.6 (17th)
Two year number of rush 1st downs/game allowed = 6.7 (24th)
Browns
2019 Rush Yards/Attempt = 5.0 (30th)
2019 Rush Yards/Game = 144.7 (30th)
Two year number of rush 1st downs allowed = 8.0 (31st)
Redskins (2 games against)
2019 Rush Yards/Attempt = 4.7 (25th)
2019 Rush Yards/Game = 146.2 (31st)
Two year number of rush 1st downs/game allowed = 7.3 (26th)
