The Giants can use a wide receiver and in draft that is strong in wide receivers they will most likely draft one in the first three rounds.I posted earlier about drafting Rashod Bateman. Here I revisit the Giants’ wide receiver selection.
So I took a look at wide receivers that are active in the NFL with regard to their physical attributes of height and weight, I got started on this as I read an article on the combine and how events relate to success. This study concluded that wide receiver height and the vertical jump were the two most important factors that correlated to NFL success. Since vertical jump data will not be available to the Pro Days, I started looking at height. I added in the factor of weight. Finally, this overall article quoted Matt Manocherian, director of research and development and football at Sports Info Solutions in saying that the best predictor of future success in the NFL is still past success in college. “Combine measures are not as relevant as on-field performance measures,”
I took a threshold of 6’1″ and 210 lbs to separate big receivers from small receivers. In doing so I came up with four categories. I also used Approximate Value (AV) as defined and computed by Pro Football Reference to give players a value to determine how good they are. I calculated a players average AV per year for his career. I used an AV of 6.0 as the cutoff to say players with an average AV of greater than 6.0 were blue chip players. This older article on the Cowboys has a table that relates AV to player performance. Over six moved into starter quality.
Big – 6’1″ or taller and 210+ lbs
There are 64 active wide receivers in the big category in the league. This is the second largest group. Of those 17 have an average AV of over 6.0. That comes out to 26.56% of this group averaged starter quality or better. The 17 players of high quality in this group are
| Player | From | To | Draft | Tm | AV | AV/Yr | Ht | Wt |
| Michael Thomas | 2016 | 2020 | 2-47 | NOR | 62 | 12.4 | 6-3 | 212 |
| Julio Jones | 2011 | 2020 | 1-6 | ATL | 119 | 11.9 | 6-3 | 220 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 2019 | 2020 | 2-64 | SEA | 21 | 10.5 | 6-4 | 229 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2013 | 2020 | 1-27 | TOT | 80 | 10.0 | 6-1 | 212 |
| Mike Evans | 2014 | 2020 | 1-7 | TAM | 64 | 9.1 | 6-5 | 231 |
| Davante Adams | 2014 | 2020 | 2-53 | GNB | 61 | 8.7 | 6-1 | 215 |
| Amari Cooper | 2015 | 2020 | 1-4 | TOT | 51 | 8.5 | 6-1 | 210 |
| A.J. Green | 2011 | 2020 | 1-4 | CIN | 84 | 8.4 | 6-4 | 210 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2004 | 2020 | 1-3 | CRD | 137 | 8.1 | 6-3 | 218 |
| Keenan Allen | 2013 | 2020 | 3-76 | SDG | 64 | 8.0 | 6-2 | 211 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2017 | 2020 | 2-62 | PIT | 31 | 7.8 | 6-1 | 215 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2010 | 2019 | 1-22 | TOT | 81 | 7.4 | 6-3 | 225 |
| Chase Claypool | 2020 | 2020 | 2-49 | PIT | 7 | 7.0 | 6-4 | 238 |
| Allen Robinson | 2014 | 2020 | 2-61 | TOT | 46 | 6.6 | 6-2 | 220 |
| Dez Bryant | 2010 | 2020 | 1-24 | TOT | 72 | 6.5 | 6-2 | 220 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2012 | 2020 | 2-45 | TOT | 57 | 6.3 | 6-3 | 218 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2014 | 2020 | 1-4 | TOT | 44 | 6.3 | 6-1 | 211 |
Small – 6’0″ or shorter and less than 210 lbs
There are 75 active wide receivers in the small category in the league. This is the largest group. In this group there are 16 players with an average AV greater than 6.0 for 21.33% of the group. The 16 players in the starter quality or better are
| Player | From | To | Draft | Tm | AV | AV/Yr | Ht | Wt |
| Tyreek Hill | 2016 | 2020 | 5-165 | KAN | 62.0 | 12.4 | 5-10 | 185 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2015 | 2020 | 5-146 | TOT | 60.0 | 10.0 | 6-0 | 191 |
| Antonio Brown | 2010 | 2020 | 6-195 | TOT | 106.0 | 9.6 | 5-10 | 185 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2014 | 2020 | 1-20 | TOT | 65.0 | 9.3 | 5-10 | 183 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2012 | 2020 | 3-92 | CLT | 83.0 | 9.2 | 5-10 | 183 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2015 | 2020 | 3-69 | SEA | 50.0 | 8.3 | 5-10 | 182 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2014 | 2020 | 1-12 | TOT | 57.0 | 8.1 | 5-11 | 198 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2014 | 2020 | 2-63 | TOT | 57.0 | 8.1 | 5-11 | 196 |
| Marquise Brown | 2019 | 2020 | 1-25 | RAV | 16.0 | 8.0 | 5-9 | 170 |
| Robert Woods | 2013 | 2020 | 2-41 | TOT | 58.0 | 7.3 | 6-0 | 195 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2008 | 2020 | 2-49 | TOT | 93.0 | 7.2 | 5-10 | 175 |
| Randall Cobb | 2011 | 2020 | 2-64 | TOT | 71.0 | 7.1 | 5-10 | 192 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2010 | 2020 | 3-82 | TOT | 72.0 | 6.5 | 5-11 | 180 |
| Golden Tate | 2010 | 2020 | 2-60 | TOT | 72.0 | 6.5 | 5-10 | 197 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2019 | 2020 | 2-56 | KAN | 13.0 | 6.5 | 5-10 | 187 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2019 | 2020 | 3-66 | PIT | 13.0 | 6.5 | 5-10 | 183 |
Heavy – 6’0″ or shorter and 210+ lbs
There were only eight players in the heavy category which is the combination of high weight with shorted stature. This was the smallest group in the league. Three of the eight players had an average AV of better than 6.0 for a whopping 37.5% of the group. However that would be considered a small statistical sample size. The three players of starter quality or better in this group are
| Player | From | To | Draft | Tm | AV | AV/Yr | Ht | Wt |
| A.J. Brown | 2019 | 2020 | 2-51 | OTI | 23.0 | 11.5 | 6-0 | 226 |
| D.J. Moore | 2018 | 2020 | 1-24 | CAR | 26.0 | 8.7 | 5-11 | 215 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2019 | 2020 | 3-76 | WAS | 14.0 | 7.0 | 6-0 | 210 |
Light – 6’1″ or taller and less than 210 lbs
There are 46 players in the light group. These are tall players that weigh less than 210 lbs. In this group seven players had an average AV of better than 6,0. That is the lowest percentage at 15.22% of the group. The players in this group at starter quality or better are
| Player | From | To | Draft | Tm | AV | AV/Yr | Ht | Wt |
| Justin Jefferson | 2020 | 2020 | 1-22 | MIN | 12.0 | 12.0 | 6-1 | 202 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2018 | 2020 | 1-26 | ATL | 25.0 | 8.3 | 6-1 | 190 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2020 | 2020 | 1-17 | DAL | 8.0 | 8.0 | 6-2 | 198 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2017 | 2020 | 3-69 | RAM | 31.0 | 7.8 | 6-2 | 208 |
| Chris Godwin | 2017 | 2020 | 3-84 | TAM | 28.0 | 7.0 | 6-1 | 209 |
| Corey Davis | 2017 | 2020 | 1-5 | OTI | 26.0 | 6.5 | 6-3 | 209 |
| Michael Gallup | 2018 | 2020 | 3-81 | DAL | 19.0 | 6.3 | 6-1 | 198 |
Draft Implications
The difference in starter quality players as determined by a 6.0 AV threshold in the two larger NFL groups appears significant. The big receivers had almost 27% of their group crossing that threshold. However the small receivers had only 21% of their group do so, It is not to say you cannot have good small receivers. However the data seems to implicate that you have a slightly better chance with a big receiver. That aligns with the combine study which found that height had the biggest correlation to NFL success among combine metrics for wide receivers.
None of the Giants three top receivers made the big category. Shepard and Tate are in the small group and Darius Slayton is in the light group. I prefer the Giants complement their receiver corp by looking to draft a big receiver. From the list of draft prospects on the draft network here is a list of big receiver prospects.
| Prospect | School | Year | Ht | Wt |
| Rashod Bateman | Minnesota | Junior | 6’1″ | 210 lbs |
| Nico Collins | Michigan | Senior | 6’4″ | 215 lbs |
| Seth Williams | Auburn | Junior | 6’2″ | 224 lbs |
| Josh Imatorbhebhe | Illinois | RS Senior | 6’2″ | 215 lbs |
| Sage Surratt | Wake Forest | RS Junior | 6’2.5″ | 215 lbs |
| Simi Fehoko | Stanford | Junior | 6’4″ | 227 lbs |
| Trevon Grimes | Florida | Senior | 6’4″ | 217 lbs |
| Jonathan Adams Jr. | Arkansas State | Senior | 6’3″ | 210 lbs |
| Jhamon Ausbon | Texas A&M | Senior | 6’2″ | 218 lbs |
| Damon Hazelton | Missouri | RS Senior | 6’2″ | 215 lbs |
| Racey McMath | LSU | Senior | 6’2.5″ | 224 lbs |
| Ben Skowronek | Notre Dame | Senior | 6’3″ | 211 lbs |
| Josh Palmer | Tennessee | Senior | 6’1″ | 210 lbs |
| T.J. Vasher | Texas Tech | RS Senior | 6’6″ | 210 lbs |
| Warren Jackson | Colorado State | Senior | 6’6″ | 215 lbs |
| Javon McKinley | Notre Dame | Senior | 6’2″ | 216 lbs |
| Tarik Black | Texas | Senior | 6’3″ | 215 lbs |
| Brennan Eagles | Texas | Junior | 6’4″ | 225 lbs |
The other part of the evaluation is as the article referenced said college performance. Examining the big wide receivers drafted in the last decade for college performance shows a common trend. I used college team market share percentage as a measure of the player’s college performance. Historical data shows that 98% of long-term starting players reached 30% of team receiving yards market share production since 1969. Since the 2011 draft there were 13 big receivers that have an average AV of over 6.0. Of those thirteen players 10 or 77% had at least one college season of 30% receiving yards team market share. The thirteen receivers are
| Year | Player | Age | AV | A/Yr | College TMS | School |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas | 23 | 62 | 12.4 | 21.6 | Ohio State |
| 2011 | Julio Jones | 22 | 119 | 11.9 | 33.4 | Alabama |
| 2019 | D.K. Metcalf | 21 | 21 | 10.5 | 16.4 | Mississippi |
| 2013 | DeAndre Hopkins | 20 | 80 | 10 | 33.6 | Clemson |
| 2014 | Mike Evans | 20 | 64 | 9.1 | 30.4 | Texas A&M |
| 2014 | Davante Adams | 21 | 61 | 8.7 | 33.5 | Fresno State |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper | 20 | 51 | 8.5 | 44.4 | Alabama |
| 2011 | A.J. Green | 22 | 84 | 8.4 | 26.7 | Georgia |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 20 | 31 | 7.8 | 38.5 | USC |
| 2020 | Chase Claypool | 21 | 7 | 7 | 31.6 | Notre Dame |
| 2014 | Allen Robinson | 20 | 46 | 6.6 | 46.1 | Penn State |
| 2012 | Alshon Jeffery | 22 | 57 | 6.3 | 45.5 | South Carolina |
| 2014 | Sammy Watkins | 20 | 44 | 6.3 | 33.8 | Clemson |
Using the college team market share threshold on the 2021 big wide receiver prospects we get two receivers that meet the criteria.
| Prospect | College TMS | School | Year | Ht | Wt |
| Rashod Bateman | 37.0 | Minnesota | Junior | 6’1″ | 210 lbs |
| Warren Jackson | 30.1 | Colorado State | Senior | 6’6″ | 215 lbs |
It was just announced that Rashod Bateman ran a 4.39 second forty yard dash at the EXOS combine. He is clearly a round one prospect. That is another fact to note about the thirteen big receivers drafted since 2011 that achieved over a 6.0 AV average – all were drafted within the first two rounds. In addition a 37% team market share that Bateman achieved is indicative of a 5-time Pr–Bowl level player. Bateman would be a good pick by the Giants. The ideal situation would be to be able to trade down and get Bateman and pick up an extra pick in the process.
If the Giants want to double up on receivers then Warren Jackson would be worth a flyer on in round 6.Warren made first down on 17 of his 19 third down receptions. He made a touchdown or first down on 79% of his receptions. IN 2019 Warren earned a 90.1 PFF grade which was third best among returning wide receivers in the nation. Jackson hauled in an impressive 91% of his catchable tight coverage targets. He was tied for the second-highest receiving grade in tight coverage in 2019
Oh and for the heavy player prospects there are two which are
| Prospect | School | Year | Ht | Wt |
| Amari Rodgers | Clemson | Senior | 5’9.5″ | 211 lbs |
| Marlon Williams | UCF | Senior | 6’0″ | 222 lbs |
Neither of these two prospects achieved a 30% team market share of receiving yards. However Marlon Williams made 29.1% in 2020. Marlon made PPF’s 2020 All American Third Team. He had the 4th highest passer rating when targeted since 2019. He is tough to bring down, wins 50-50 balls, and has great hands. If Bateman is too much a reach at 11 and a trade-down is not available, then Marlon in round 4 is an option.
